本文關(guān)鍵詞：FDI、金融結(jié)構(gòu)和我國經(jīng)濟增長基于動態(tài)面板與VAR的實證研究　出處：《云南師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 經(jīng)濟增長 外商直接投資 金融結(jié)構(gòu)

【摘要】：“如何促進經(jīng)濟增長”這個問題長期以來都是全世界經(jīng)濟學(xué)者孜孜不倦的研究對象。而金融作為經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)的核心，必然成為學(xué)者們關(guān)注的焦點。本文首先通過對國內(nèi)外相關(guān)理論的研習(xí)，就金融結(jié)構(gòu)、外商直接投資與經(jīng)濟增長之間的作用機制進行了詳細的分析，認為經(jīng)濟，金融市場，外資的流入存在聯(lián)動機制。在實證分析方面，作者以新古典增長理論和內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟增長理論為基礎(chǔ)，通過對柯布道格拉斯函數(shù)的數(shù)學(xué)擴展，并利用我國1992-2011年長達20年的省級面板數(shù)據(jù)，依次構(gòu)建了符合我國國情的固定效應(yīng)模型、面板VAR模型和動態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型。固定效應(yīng)模型中，，除了金融總量指標，其他各解釋變量和控制變量的系數(shù)都至少在5%的顯著水平下顯著。其中，外商直接投資、金融效率的系數(shù)分別為0.0165和0.0222。面板VAR模型則考察了經(jīng)濟增長指標、金融結(jié)構(gòu)指標和外商直接投資指標的滯后期的影響，估計結(jié)果在一定程度上證實了三者存在互動關(guān)系的假設(shè)。動態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型估計結(jié)果顯示，經(jīng)濟增長指標的滯后一期系數(shù)顯著，高達0.2213。FDI當(dāng)期、滯后一期和二期的系數(shù)分別為0.0197、0.0140和0.0116，表明FDI指標對我國經(jīng)濟增長在短期和中長期均有明顯的正向作用。金融總量指標當(dāng)期系數(shù)在5%的顯著水平下顯著，系數(shù)達到了0.0305。而金融效率指標的作用比較復(fù)雜，滯后一期和二期均在1%顯著水平下顯著，系數(shù)分別為0.1997和-0.1533。綜合各計量模型的研究結(jié)果可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，在消費，投資，財政，出口，技術(shù)進步等條件給定的情況下，F(xiàn)DI增加和金融市場的優(yōu)化均能在一定程度上刺激我國GDP的增長。而代表過去經(jīng)濟情況的GDP滯后變量也與當(dāng)期經(jīng)濟有顯著的相關(guān)性，表明我國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展存在一種慣性作用。最后，本文根據(jù)理論和實證研究所得出的結(jié)論，對提高金融市場效率，優(yōu)化金融市場資源配置，合理利用外資等方面提出了相應(yīng)的建議。
[Abstract]:"How to promote economic growth" this issue has long been the research object of the world economic and financial scholars diligently. As the core of the economic system, will inevitably become the focus of scholars. Firstly, according to the relevant theory of domestic and foreign study on the financial structure, a detailed analysis of the mechanism between the foreign direct investment with the economic growth that the economy and financial markets, the inflow of foreign capital has linkage mechanism. In the empirical analysis, the author takes new classical growth theory and endogenous growth theory as the foundation, through to the O'Brien Glass function expansion and the use of mathematics, the provincial panel data during 1992-2011 in China for 20 years, followed by building a the fixed effect model conforming to China's national conditions, the panel VAR model and dynamic panel data model. The fixed effect model, in addition to the financial indicators, the other explanation The coefficient and the control variables are at least 5% significant level significantly. Among them, foreign direct investment, financial efficiency coefficient were 0.0165 and 0.0222. panel VAR model examines the economic growth indicators, the impact of financial structure index and FDI index lag, the estimation results to some extent confirms the existence of the interaction between the three assumptions. The dynamic panel data model. The results showed that economic growth index of one period lag coefficient is significant, up to 0.2213.FDI current, the lag phase and the two phase of the coefficient were 0.0197,0.0140 and 0.0116, FDI index showed a positive effect on China's economic growth in the short-term and long-term financial significantly. The total index of current coefficient is significant at the 5% significance level, the coefficient reached 0.0305. and the financial efficiency index function is more complex, the lag period and the two period are 1% significant water Flat significantly, coefficient of respectively 0.1997 and -0.1533. of each model can be found in consumption, investment, finance, export, technological progress and other conditions are given, the optimization of FDI increased and the financial market can stimulate the growth of the GDP in China to a certain extent. But represents the past economic situation GDP lag variables have significant correlation with the current economy, indicates that there is an inertia effect of China's economic development. Finally, according to the theory and the conclusions of empirical research, to improve the efficiency of financial market, optimize the financial allocation of market resources, and puts forward the corresponding suggestions on rational use of foreign capital and so on.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F224;F832.6;F124.1

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

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本文編號：1394906