本文關(guān)鍵詞：FDI、金融結(jié)構(gòu)和我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)基于動(dòng)態(tài)面板與VAR的實(shí)證研究　出處：《云南師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 外商直接投資 金融結(jié)構(gòu)

【摘要】：“如何促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)”這個(gè)問題長(zhǎng)期以來都是全世界經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)者孜孜不倦的研究對(duì)象。而金融作為經(jīng)濟(jì)系統(tǒng)的核心，必然成為學(xué)者們關(guān)注的焦點(diǎn)。本文首先通過對(duì)國內(nèi)外相關(guān)理論的研習(xí)，就金融結(jié)構(gòu)、外商直接投資與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)之間的作用機(jī)制進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)的分析，認(rèn)為經(jīng)濟(jì)，金融市場(chǎng)，外資的流入存在聯(lián)動(dòng)機(jī)制。在實(shí)證分析方面，作者以新古典增長(zhǎng)理論和內(nèi)生經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)理論為基礎(chǔ)，通過對(duì)柯布道格拉斯函數(shù)的數(shù)學(xué)擴(kuò)展，并利用我國1992-2011年長(zhǎng)達(dá)20年的省級(jí)面板數(shù)據(jù)，依次構(gòu)建了符合我國國情的固定效應(yīng)模型、面板VAR模型和動(dòng)態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型。固定效應(yīng)模型中，，除了金融總量指標(biāo)，其他各解釋變量和控制變量的系數(shù)都至少在5%的顯著水平下顯著。其中，外商直接投資、金融效率的系數(shù)分別為0.0165和0.0222。面板VAR模型則考察了經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)指標(biāo)、金融結(jié)構(gòu)指標(biāo)和外商直接投資指標(biāo)的滯后期的影響，估計(jì)結(jié)果在一定程度上證實(shí)了三者存在互動(dòng)關(guān)系的假設(shè)。動(dòng)態(tài)面板數(shù)據(jù)模型估計(jì)結(jié)果顯示，經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)指標(biāo)的滯后一期系數(shù)顯著，高達(dá)0.2213。FDI當(dāng)期、滯后一期和二期的系數(shù)分別為0.0197、0.0140和0.0116，表明FDI指標(biāo)對(duì)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)在短期和中長(zhǎng)期均有明顯的正向作用。金融總量指標(biāo)當(dāng)期系數(shù)在5%的顯著水平下顯著，系數(shù)達(dá)到了0.0305。而金融效率指標(biāo)的作用比較復(fù)雜，滯后一期和二期均在1%顯著水平下顯著，系數(shù)分別為0.1997和-0.1533。綜合各計(jì)量模型的研究結(jié)果可以發(fā)現(xiàn)，在消費(fèi)，投資，財(cái)政，出口，技術(shù)進(jìn)步等條件給定的情況下，F(xiàn)DI增加和金融市場(chǎng)的優(yōu)化均能在一定程度上刺激我國GDP的增長(zhǎng)。而代表過去經(jīng)濟(jì)情況的GDP滯后變量也與當(dāng)期經(jīng)濟(jì)有顯著的相關(guān)性，表明我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展存在一種慣性作用。最后，本文根據(jù)理論和實(shí)證研究所得出的結(jié)論，對(duì)提高金融市場(chǎng)效率，優(yōu)化金融市場(chǎng)資源配置，合理利用外資等方面提出了相應(yīng)的建議。
[Abstract]:"How to promote economic growth" this issue has long been the research object of the world economic and financial scholars diligently. As the core of the economic system, will inevitably become the focus of scholars. Firstly, according to the relevant theory of domestic and foreign study on the financial structure, a detailed analysis of the mechanism between the foreign direct investment with the economic growth that the economy and financial markets, the inflow of foreign capital has linkage mechanism. In the empirical analysis, the author takes new classical growth theory and endogenous growth theory as the foundation, through to the O'Brien Glass function expansion and the use of mathematics, the provincial panel data during 1992-2011 in China for 20 years, followed by building a the fixed effect model conforming to China's national conditions, the panel VAR model and dynamic panel data model. The fixed effect model, in addition to the financial indicators, the other explanation The coefficient and the control variables are at least 5% significant level significantly. Among them, foreign direct investment, financial efficiency coefficient were 0.0165 and 0.0222. panel VAR model examines the economic growth indicators, the impact of financial structure index and FDI index lag, the estimation results to some extent confirms the existence of the interaction between the three assumptions. The dynamic panel data model. The results showed that economic growth index of one period lag coefficient is significant, up to 0.2213.FDI current, the lag phase and the two phase of the coefficient were 0.0197,0.0140 and 0.0116, FDI index showed a positive effect on China's economic growth in the short-term and long-term financial significantly. The total index of current coefficient is significant at the 5% significance level, the coefficient reached 0.0305. and the financial efficiency index function is more complex, the lag period and the two period are 1% significant water Flat significantly, coefficient of respectively 0.1997 and -0.1533. of each model can be found in consumption, investment, finance, export, technological progress and other conditions are given, the optimization of FDI increased and the financial market can stimulate the growth of the GDP in China to a certain extent. But represents the past economic situation GDP lag variables have significant correlation with the current economy, indicates that there is an inertia effect of China's economic development. Finally, according to the theory and the conclusions of empirical research, to improve the efficiency of financial market, optimize the financial allocation of market resources, and puts forward the corresponding suggestions on rational use of foreign capital and so on.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號(hào)】：F224;F832.6;F124.1

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相關(guān)期刊論文 前2條

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本文編號(hào)：1394906