本文關(guān)鍵詞：土地財(cái)政對(duì)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格影響的實(shí)證研究　出處：《西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 土地財(cái)政依賴 房?jī)r(jià) 博弈

【摘要】：近年來(lái),我國(guó)商品房?jī)r(jià)格逐年上漲,同時(shí)地方政府對(duì)于土地財(cái)政的依賴也呈現(xiàn)出不斷增強(qiáng)的趨勢(shì)。商品房是作為城市化進(jìn)程中的剛性需求,因此,商品房?jī)r(jià)格的上漲與地方政府對(duì)于土地財(cái)政的依賴是否存在聯(lián)系,以及有多大程度的聯(lián)系,引起了學(xué)術(shù)界和社會(huì)大眾的廣泛關(guān)注。 分稅制改革所帶來(lái)的結(jié)果是地方政府財(cái)政收入權(quán)力上移,而事權(quán)責(zé)任下放,地方政府沒(méi)有長(zhǎng)期穩(wěn)定的稅源,態(tài)度也轉(zhuǎn)向消極負(fù)面,開(kāi)始將財(cái)政收入增長(zhǎng)的重心轉(zhuǎn)移到尋求預(yù)算外資金的新增長(zhǎng)。再加上20世紀(jì)80年代開(kāi)始的改革開(kāi)放帶來(lái)國(guó)家工作重心的轉(zhuǎn)移,造成了所謂的“GDP政績(jī)觀”,這種唯GDP論再加上任期制度的限制使得地方政府官員都將追求GDP的高速增長(zhǎng)作為工作的目標(biāo)和動(dòng)力,由此導(dǎo)致地方政府熱衷于土地審批和土地開(kāi)發(fā),甚至不惜頂風(fēng)作案,違抗中央政府的政策和法令。從收入來(lái)源來(lái)看,此類(lèi)資金的主體是土地開(kāi)發(fā)和土地轉(zhuǎn)讓有關(guān)的收入,也就是俗稱的“土地財(cái)政”。 本文通過(guò)理論分析和構(gòu)建計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)模型,以及建立博弈模型等多種研究方法試圖分析分稅制改革以后地方政府對(duì)土地財(cái)政的依賴是否會(huì)導(dǎo)致房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格上漲,以及有多大程度的影響。全文嘗試著回答下面四個(gè)問(wèn)題。(1)土地財(cái)政的定義及構(gòu)成、成因、現(xiàn)狀分析。(2)構(gòu)建面板數(shù)據(jù)回歸模型,分析地方政府對(duì)土地財(cái)政的依賴和商品房?jī)r(jià)格上漲是否存在正向相關(guān)的關(guān)系,以及相關(guān)程度有多大。(3)構(gòu)建博弈模型,分析地方政府是否存在機(jī)會(huì)主義的僥幸心態(tài),冒著被中央政府懲罰的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),忽視行為外部的不經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)果,作出“殺雞取卵”、“涸澤而漁”的短期不計(jì)后果的機(jī)會(huì)主義行為。(4)根據(jù)論文論證得出的問(wèn)題,提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。 本文首先研究了土地財(cái)政的定義及構(gòu)成、成因和現(xiàn)狀分析。本文認(rèn)為從收入角度看,可以從狹義和廣義兩個(gè)層面去理解土地財(cái)政。狹義上的土地財(cái)政收入僅僅是指國(guó)有土地使用權(quán)出讓金等地租性質(zhì)的收入。廣義上的土地財(cái)政收入可以涵蓋一切與土地密切相關(guān)的政府性收入,大致包括租、稅、費(fèi)、債四個(gè)部分。接來(lái)來(lái)對(duì)土地財(cái)政的成因進(jìn)行了分析,財(cái)政競(jìng)爭(zhēng)和政績(jī)顯示的需要,使地方政府依賴以土地出讓金為主的非正式資金來(lái)源,以此獲得更多的可支配收入。最后對(duì)土地財(cái)政的現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了分析,認(rèn)識(shí)到土地出讓成交價(jià)款整體呈快速上升趨勢(shì),并且不同用地類(lèi)型、不同出讓方式的土地成交價(jià)格差異明顯。 其次,本文嘗試通過(guò)構(gòu)建面板數(shù)據(jù)回歸模型,以土地財(cái)政依賴度作為模型分析的關(guān)鍵變量,試圖解析地方政府對(duì)土地財(cái)政的依賴程度是否與當(dāng)?shù)厣唐贩績(jī)r(jià)格的上漲存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系,以及相關(guān)程度有多大。并且構(gòu)建博弈模型,分析當(dāng)中央政府出臺(tái)相關(guān)的土地調(diào)控政策措施時(shí),地方政府是否基于地方財(cái)政收入的角度考慮,在機(jī)會(huì)主義的僥幸心態(tài)下,為了保障其收益,不愿看到房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格下跌,對(duì)中央政府的政策采取變通執(zhí)行的策略,通過(guò)各種手段維持或者推動(dòng)房地產(chǎn)價(jià)格的上漲。 最后,針對(duì)地方政府對(duì)土地財(cái)政依賴產(chǎn)生的對(duì)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的影響,提出相關(guān)的政策建議。(1)通過(guò)加快財(cái)政體制的改革,本文具體包括明確中央政府和地方政府間事權(quán)和支出責(zé)任的劃分、進(jìn)一步完善轉(zhuǎn)移支付制度、規(guī)范政府間收入的劃分和加強(qiáng)財(cái)政體制法制化建設(shè)等；(2)規(guī)范土地出讓金收入的分配和管理,具體包括建立具有投資性質(zhì)的土地收益基金、將土地出讓金收支納入正式預(yù)算管理范圍等。(3)改革制度設(shè)置,具體包括任期制度、考核制度、監(jiān)督制度。
[Abstract]:In recent years, China's commercial housing prices rose year by year, while the local government for the land finance dependence is also showing a growing trend. As the city commercial housing is in the process of rigid demand, therefore, commercial housing prices and local government to land finance according to the link between LAI and whether, to what extent the contact, caused widespread concern in the academia and the public.
The results brought by the reform of the tax system is the local government revenue power shift, and responsibility decentralization, local governments do not have long-term stable sources, also turned to negative attitude, start a new growth will be the focus of fiscal revenue growth to seek extrabudgetary funds transfer. Coupled with the beginning of 1980s's reform and opening up has the focus of national work the result of the so-called "GDP performance concept, the rapid growth of this only on the GDP plus tenure system due to the restriction of local government officials will pursue GDP as the goal and motive force, the local government is keen to land approval and land development caused by this, even against crime, defy the policies of the central government and the law. From the sources of income, such funds is the main land development and land transfer income, also known as the" land finance ".
In this paper, by constructing econometric models and theoretical analysis, and the establishment of the game model and other research methods to analyze the tax system after the reform of local government reliance on land finance will lead to real estate prices, and the extent of the impact. This paper try to answer the following four questions. (1) the definition of land finance and a cause analysis of the status quo. (2) to construct a panel data regression model, analysis of local government reliance on land finance and real estate prices are positive correlation, and the correlation extent. (3) to build a game model, analysis of whether the local government opportunism luck and risk the central government to punish, don't neglect the external economic results, make "goose", "opportunistic behavior brutal" short-term reckless. (4) according to the Discuss the problems and put forward the corresponding policy suggestions.
This paper studies the definition of land finance and composition, analysis of causes and the current situation. This paper argues that from the revenue perspective, to understand the land finance from two broad and narrow sense. The narrow sense of the land revenue only refers to the nature of rent leasing state-owned land use rights income. Land revenue can be generalized everything is closely related with the land of government revenue, including rent, taxes, fees, bonds of four parts. Then to analyze the causes of land finance, fiscal competition and performance shows, so that local governments rely on informal sources in land leasing mainly, in order to obtain more disposable income finally on the present situation of land finance is analyzed, to realize land transaction price overall is increasing rapidly, and with different types, different ways to sell the land price The difference of the lattice is obvious.
Secondly, this paper attempts to construct a panel data regression model, the degree of financial dependence on the land as a key variable of the model analysis, attempts to analyze the local government's dependence on land finance is positively correlated with local commercial housing prices, and extent. And constructs the game model analysis, when the central government issued land the regulation of the relevant policies and measures, whether the local government fiscal revenue based on the perspective of consideration, in opportunistic luck, in order to protect their benefits, do not want to see the real estate prices, take alternative implementation of the policy of the central government's policy, maintain or through a variety of means to promote the real estate prices.
Finally, according to the local government reliance on land finance have impacts on the real estate industry, and puts forward relevant policy suggestions. (1) to accelerate the reform of financial system, the clear division between central government and local government powers and expenditure responsibilities, to further improve the transfer payment system, the division of government income and to strengthen the legal construction of financial system; (2) the distribution and management of gold income for land transfers, including the establishment of an investment nature of the land revenue fund, land transfer payments into the formal budget management scope. (3) the reform of the system settings, including the tenure system, evaluation system, supervision system.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F301;F812;F299.23

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