本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于GWR模型的上饒市住宅地價空間分異研究　出處：《江西師范大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 城市地價 空間分異 上饒市 地理加權(quán)回歸模型

【摘要】：城市土地是城市居民生產(chǎn)生活的主要場所，也是經(jīng)濟(jì)、政治、文化、教育、科技和信息傳播的中心。城市地價則直接反映了土地市場和土地供需狀況的健康狀況，更是政府用來進(jìn)行宏觀調(diào)控的重要工具。隨著國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的快速發(fā)展，如何通過研究城市地價的空間分異情況及其影響因素的狀況，為城市制定合理的供地計劃及政策，實現(xiàn)城市土地資產(chǎn)的可持續(xù)利用和防止土地資產(chǎn)流失也逐漸成為了土地資源管理的重要課題。 在國內(nèi)外有關(guān)城市地價的空間分異及其影響因素的研究有很多，大部分的研究都是通過量化影響地價的因子變量，利用統(tǒng)計分析的方法建立特征價格模型來表現(xiàn)整個研究區(qū)域地價的空間變化情況。這樣的地價空間結(jié)構(gòu)分析往往只能反映出全域的地價空間變化狀況，對于研究區(qū)域的地價局部空間變化則無法很好的詮釋。而且從評價結(jié)果來看，特征價格模型結(jié)果單一且欠缺直觀性。因此需要選擇更優(yōu)的方法幫助分析地價的空間分異，即地理加權(quán)回歸（GWR）模型。 本文在國內(nèi)外地價空間分異研究現(xiàn)狀和理論研究的基礎(chǔ)上，對城市地價的內(nèi)涵進(jìn)行了界定，以上饒市中心城區(qū)為研究區(qū)域，通過對上饒市2009~2012年土地出讓市場情況的數(shù)據(jù)調(diào)查和量化整理，首先利用探索性空間分析（ESDA）方法，探索了上饒市住宅地價分布的空間數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)構(gòu)和空間趨勢變化情況，結(jié)果表明上饒市住宅地價數(shù)據(jù)基本符合正態(tài)分布，且地價在經(jīng)度方向和緯度方向均呈現(xiàn)倒U型，尤其是經(jīng)度方向的地價曲線值由南至北呈現(xiàn)低—高—低的分布。然后采用Geoda軟件對上饒市住宅地價進(jìn)行空間自相關(guān)分析，并對地價數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行克里金插值利用Arcgis工具做不同方向上饒市的住宅地價剖面圖。結(jié)果表明上饒市住宅地價在空間上呈現(xiàn)一定的集聚效應(yīng)，且上饒市住宅地價分布為“單核”空間結(jié)構(gòu)，表現(xiàn)為由市中心向外圍遞減的趨勢，另外區(qū)域內(nèi)還存在地價的“冷點”和“熱點”。接著，通過對權(quán)重函數(shù)的選擇和帶寬的確定采用了地理加權(quán)回歸（GWR）模型對上饒市住宅地價，詳細(xì)探討了上饒市住宅地價與其影響因素之間的關(guān)系。通過方差分析、事件智能診斷和蒙特卡羅顯著性檢驗等對GWR模型的結(jié)果進(jìn)行比較和分析，，確立了調(diào)整型的空間核作為解釋住宅地價空間結(jié)構(gòu)的最終模型。并結(jié)合了GIS工具分析了各個影響因素對住宅地價的空間分布差異。結(jié)果表明醫(yī)院、中學(xué)、小學(xué)、公園、容積率和綠化率等影響因子對住宅地價影響顯著，且各個影響因素的影響程度隨著空間位置的改變，對地價的影響程度也不同。 最后，對兩種模型方法的擬合優(yōu)度R2、殘差平方進(jìn)行了結(jié)果分析，發(fā)現(xiàn)GWR模型都比特征價格模型具有更好的解釋結(jié)果。
[Abstract]:Urban land is not only the main place for urban residents to produce and live, but also the economy, politics, culture and education. Urban land price directly reflects the health of the land market and land supply and demand, and is an important tool used by the government to carry out macro-control. With the rapid development of the national economy. How to make a reasonable land supply plan and policy by studying the spatial differentiation of urban land price and its influencing factors. Realizing the sustainable use of urban land assets and preventing the loss of land assets have gradually become an important subject of land resource management. There are many researches on the spatial differentiation of urban land price and its influencing factors at home and abroad, most of which are by quantifying the factor variables that affect the land price. The method of statistical analysis is used to set up the characteristic price model to express the spatial change of the land price in the whole study area, and the spatial structure analysis of the land price can only reflect the spatial change of the land price in the whole region. The local spatial change of the land price in the study area can not be well explained, and from the evaluation results. The results of the feature price model are simple and lack of intuition.Therefore, it is necessary to choose a better method to help analyze the spatial differentiation of land price, that is, the geographical weighted regression model (GWR). Based on the present situation and theoretical research of spatial differentiation of land price at home and abroad, this paper defines the connotation of urban land price, taking Shangrao central city as the research area. Through the data investigation and quantitative arrangement of the land transfer market in Shangrao City from 2009 to 2012, the exploratory spatial analysis (ESDA) method is first used. The spatial data structure and spatial trend of residential land price distribution in Shangrao are explored. The results show that the data of residential land price in Shangrao basically accord with normal distribution. And the land price in longitude direction and latitude direction are inverted U-shaped. Especially the value of land price curve in longitude direction from south to north presents a low-high-low distribution. Then the Geoda software is used to analyze the spatial autocorrelation of residential land price in Shangrao city. And carry on the Kriging interpolation to the land price data to use the Arcgis tool to make the residential land price profile of Shangrao city in different directions. The result shows that the residential land price in Shangrao city has a certain agglomeration effect on the space. And Shangrao residential land price is distributed as a "single core" spatial structure, showing a decreasing trend from the center of the city to the periphery, in addition, there are "cold spots" and "hot spots" of land price in the area. Through the selection of weight function and the determination of bandwidth, the GWR model is used to determine the residential land price in Shangrao city. The relationship between residential land price and its influencing factors in Shangrao City is discussed in detail. The results of GWR model are compared and analyzed by variance analysis, event intelligence diagnosis and Monte Carlo significance test. This paper establishes the adjusted spatial core as the final model to explain the spatial structure of residential land price, and analyzes the spatial distribution difference of various influencing factors on residential land price with GIS tool. The results show that the hospital and middle school. The influence factors such as primary school, park, area rate and green rate have significant influence on residential land price, and the influence degree of each influencing factor is different with the change of space position. Finally, the results of the two models are analyzed, and it is found that the GWR model has a better explanation than the feature price model.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：F299.23

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