曲阜綠城住宅工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2017-12-26 17:10
本文關(guān)鍵詞：曲阜綠城住宅工程項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理研究 出處：《中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文 論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文
更多相關(guān)文章： 住宅工程項(xiàng)目 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理 德?tīng)柗品?/b> 模糊綜合評(píng)判法
【摘要】：2010年以來(lái)國(guó)家出臺(tái)了一系列政策措施調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)行業(yè),包括“國(guó)十一條”、“新國(guó)八條”、提高二套房首付比例達(dá)50%、暫停家庭購(gòu)買(mǎi)三套房房貸、開(kāi)征房產(chǎn)稅等,同時(shí)連續(xù)3次加息、6次上調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率,新出臺(tái)政策抑制了房地產(chǎn)市場(chǎng)發(fā)展過(guò)熱的勢(shì)頭,房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的開(kāi)發(fā)有所降溫,給住宅房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目的開(kāi)發(fā)帶來(lái)了更多不確定因素。眾所周知,房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目投資數(shù)額大、投資周期長(zhǎng)、運(yùn)營(yíng)操作復(fù)雜更是高風(fēng)險(xiǎn)行業(yè)的典型。房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目開(kāi)發(fā)中要面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)、社會(huì)、自然、技術(shù)、管理各類(lèi)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),眾多的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素決定了投資效益的不確定性。因此,加強(qiáng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理是保證房地產(chǎn)開(kāi)發(fā)項(xiàng)目順利實(shí)施的不可或缺的組成部分。本文主要采用理論與實(shí)踐相結(jié)合的研究方法,對(duì)住宅工程項(xiàng)目中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的評(píng)價(jià)進(jìn)行了研究和探討。并對(duì)曲阜綠城一期住宅工程項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行了實(shí)證研究。主要的研究方法有：文獻(xiàn)查閱法,數(shù)據(jù)收集方法貫穿整個(gè)論文的研究與寫(xiě)作過(guò)程：實(shí)地調(diào)查法即對(duì)該項(xiàng)目的投資建設(shè)相關(guān)部門(mén)進(jìn)行實(shí)地調(diào)研,收集第一手資料：系統(tǒng)分析方法,在收集數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,利用系統(tǒng)分析方法中的層次分析法和模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法,分別建立了項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素排序模型和風(fēng)險(xiǎn)模糊分析模型,具有一定的科學(xué)性：定性與定量相結(jié)合的方法,針對(duì)曲阜綠城一期住宅工程項(xiàng)目具體實(shí)例,利用項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理的方法對(duì)其進(jìn)行定性的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)識(shí)別與分類(lèi),利用所建模型對(duì)其進(jìn)行定量的實(shí)證應(yīng)用與分析,具有一定的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文在對(duì)房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理理論進(jìn)行梳理的基礎(chǔ)上,以曲阜綠城住宅工程項(xiàng)目為研究對(duì)象,提出了一套切實(shí)可行的房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理措施。包括：(1)對(duì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理、風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理方法進(jìn)行梳理總結(jié)；(2)對(duì)曲阜綠城住宅工程項(xiàng)目進(jìn)行全面分析,并應(yīng)用德?tīng)柗品ㄗR(shí)別主要項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)：經(jīng)營(yíng)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、政治風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)、自然風(fēng)險(xiǎn)和技術(shù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。(3)運(yùn)用AHP模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法對(duì)曲阜綠城住宅工程項(xiàng)目的開(kāi)發(fā)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)進(jìn)行綜合評(píng)價(jià),得出該項(xiàng)目的綜合風(fēng)險(xiǎn)處于一般水平。(4)根據(jù)曲阜綠城住宅工程項(xiàng)目的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)結(jié)果,有針對(duì)性的提出項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)對(duì)措旅,將風(fēng)險(xiǎn)降到最低水平,確保綠城住宅工程項(xiàng)目的順利實(shí)施。本文以曲阜綠城一期住宅工程項(xiàng)目為實(shí)例,運(yùn)用層次分析評(píng)價(jià)法和模糊綜合評(píng)價(jià)法,論證曲阜綠城一期住宅工程項(xiàng)目面臨的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)因素,試圖得出適當(dāng)?shù)娘L(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制對(duì)策。從微觀(guān)層面講,加強(qiáng)對(duì)房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估的研究有利于完善房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理體系,確保項(xiàng)目順利實(shí)施,提高經(jīng)營(yíng)效益、獲得利潤(rùn)。從宏觀(guān)層面講,加強(qiáng)房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)估,提高房地產(chǎn)項(xiàng)目風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理水平,是成熟市場(chǎng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的必然要求,一切按照市場(chǎng)規(guī)律辦事,有利于房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Since 2010 the state issued a series of policies and measures to control the real estate industry, including the "country of eleven", "Eight Control Regulations on House Prices" and improve the two suites down payment of 50%, suspended families to buy three suites mortgage, property tax levy, and the 3 consecutive increase in interest rates, raising the deposit reserve ratio 6 times, the introduction of new policies to restrain the the development of the overheated real estate market momentum, the development of real estate projects has been down to the development of the residential real estate project brings more uncertainty. As we all know, real estate development project investment amount, long investment cycle, operation complex is more typical of high risk industry. In the development of real estate projects, we should face the risks of economy, society, nature, technology and management. Many risk factors determine the uncertainty of investment benefit. Therefore, strengthening the risk management is an indispensable part of ensuring the smooth implementation of the real estate development project. This paper mainly studies the risk factors, risk identification and risk evaluation of housing projects by combining theory with practice. The paper also carried out an empirical study on the first phase of the residential project in Lvcheng in Qufu. The main research methods are: literature review, research and writing method of collecting data through this paper: field investigation method of on-the-spot investigation of the relevant departments to invest in the construction of the project, to collect first-hand information: system analysis method, based on data collection, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and AHP method the analysis by using the system, established the fuzzy analysis model of project risk factors ranking model and risk, have certain science: the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, aiming at a residential project in Qufu Greentown project example, risk identification and qualitative classification based on the method of project risk management, application and demonstration using the model of quantitative analysis on it, has a certain practical significance. Based on the theory of risk management of real estate projects, this paper takes Qufu green city residential project as the research object, and puts forward a set of feasible risk management measures for real estate projects. Including: (1) the risk, risk management, risk management methods were summarized; (2) to conduct a comprehensive analysis of Qufu Greentown residential projects, and the application of the Delphi method identify the main project risk: business risk, political risk, economic risk, natural risk and technical risk. (3) using AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to comprehensively evaluate the development risk of Qufu Lvcheng residential project, and draw the conclusion that the comprehensive risk of the project is at a general level. (4) according to the risk assessment results of Qufu Greentown residential project, the project risk response brigade is put forward to minimize the risk and ensure the smooth implementation of the Greentown housing project. Taking the first phase residential project of Qufu green city as an example, this paper uses AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to demonstrate the risk factors faced by the first phase residential project in Qufu, and try to draw some appropriate risk control measures. From a micro perspective, strengthening the research on risk assessment of real estate projects is conducive to improving the risk management system of real estate enterprises, ensuring the smooth implementation of projects, improving business profits and gaining profits. From a macro perspective, strengthening the risk assessment of real estate projects and improving the level of risk management of real estate projects is the inevitable requirement of a mature market economy. Everything in accordance with the laws of the market is conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國(guó)海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：TU71;F299.23
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