本文關(guān)鍵詞：曲阜綠城住宅工程項目風(fēng)險管理研究　出處：《中國海洋大學(xué)》2014年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 住宅工程項目 風(fēng)險管理 德爾菲法 模糊綜合評判法

【摘要】：2010年以來國家出臺了一系列政策措施調(diào)控房地產(chǎn)行業(yè),包括“國十一條”、“新國八條”、提高二套房首付比例達50%、暫停家庭購買三套房房貸、開征房產(chǎn)稅等,同時連續(xù)3次加息、6次上調(diào)存款準(zhǔn)備金率,新出臺政策抑制了房地產(chǎn)市場發(fā)展過熱的勢頭,房地產(chǎn)項目的開發(fā)有所降溫,給住宅房地產(chǎn)項目的開發(fā)帶來了更多不確定因素。眾所周知,房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目投資數(shù)額大、投資周期長、運營操作復(fù)雜更是高風(fēng)險行業(yè)的典型。房地產(chǎn)項目開發(fā)中要面臨經(jīng)濟、社會、自然、技術(shù)、管理各類風(fēng)險,眾多的風(fēng)險因素決定了投資效益的不確定性。因此,加強風(fēng)險管理是保證房地產(chǎn)開發(fā)項目順利實施的不可或缺的組成部分。本文主要采用理論與實踐相結(jié)合的研究方法,對住宅工程項目中的風(fēng)險因素、風(fēng)險識別、風(fēng)險的評價進行了研究和探討。并對曲阜綠城一期住宅工程項目進行了實證研究。主要的研究方法有：文獻查閱法,數(shù)據(jù)收集方法貫穿整個論文的研究與寫作過程：實地調(diào)查法即對該項目的投資建設(shè)相關(guān)部門進行實地調(diào)研,收集第一手資料：系統(tǒng)分析方法,在收集數(shù)據(jù)的基礎(chǔ)上,利用系統(tǒng)分析方法中的層次分析法和模糊綜合評價法,分別建立了項目風(fēng)險因素排序模型和風(fēng)險模糊分析模型,具有一定的科學(xué)性：定性與定量相結(jié)合的方法,針對曲阜綠城一期住宅工程項目具體實例,利用項目風(fēng)險管理的方法對其進行定性的風(fēng)險識別與分類,利用所建模型對其進行定量的實證應(yīng)用與分析,具有一定的現(xiàn)實意義。本文在對房地產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險管理理論進行梳理的基礎(chǔ)上,以曲阜綠城住宅工程項目為研究對象,提出了一套切實可行的房地產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險管理措施。包括：(1)對風(fēng)險、風(fēng)險管理、風(fēng)險管理方法進行梳理總結(jié)；(2)對曲阜綠城住宅工程項目進行全面分析,并應(yīng)用德爾菲法識別主要項目風(fēng)險：經(jīng)營風(fēng)險、政治風(fēng)險、經(jīng)濟風(fēng)險、自然風(fēng)險和技術(shù)風(fēng)險。(3)運用AHP模糊綜合評價法對曲阜綠城住宅工程項目的開發(fā)風(fēng)險進行綜合評價,得出該項目的綜合風(fēng)險處于一般水平。(4)根據(jù)曲阜綠城住宅工程項目的風(fēng)險評價結(jié)果,有針對性的提出項目風(fēng)險應(yīng)對措旅,將風(fēng)險降到最低水平,確保綠城住宅工程項目的順利實施。本文以曲阜綠城一期住宅工程項目為實例,運用層次分析評價法和模糊綜合評價法,論證曲阜綠城一期住宅工程項目面臨的風(fēng)險因素,試圖得出適當(dāng)?shù)娘L(fēng)險控制對策。從微觀層面講,加強對房地產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險評估的研究有利于完善房地產(chǎn)企業(yè)的風(fēng)險管理體系,確保項目順利實施,提高經(jīng)營效益、獲得利潤。從宏觀層面講,加強房地產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險評估,提高房地產(chǎn)項目風(fēng)險管理水平,是成熟市場經(jīng)濟的必然要求,一切按照市場規(guī)律辦事,有利于房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展。
[Abstract]:Since 2010 the state issued a series of policies and measures to control the real estate industry, including the "country of eleven", "Eight Control Regulations on House Prices" and improve the two suites down payment of 50%, suspended families to buy three suites mortgage, property tax levy, and the 3 consecutive increase in interest rates, raising the deposit reserve ratio 6 times, the introduction of new policies to restrain the the development of the overheated real estate market momentum, the development of real estate projects has been down to the development of the residential real estate project brings more uncertainty. As we all know, real estate development project investment amount, long investment cycle, operation complex is more typical of high risk industry. In the development of real estate projects, we should face the risks of economy, society, nature, technology and management. Many risk factors determine the uncertainty of investment benefit. Therefore, strengthening the risk management is an indispensable part of ensuring the smooth implementation of the real estate development project. This paper mainly studies the risk factors, risk identification and risk evaluation of housing projects by combining theory with practice. The paper also carried out an empirical study on the first phase of the residential project in Lvcheng in Qufu. The main research methods are: literature review, research and writing method of collecting data through this paper: field investigation method of on-the-spot investigation of the relevant departments to invest in the construction of the project, to collect first-hand information: system analysis method, based on data collection, and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and AHP method the analysis by using the system, established the fuzzy analysis model of project risk factors ranking model and risk, have certain science: the combination of qualitative and quantitative methods, aiming at a residential project in Qufu Greentown project example, risk identification and qualitative classification based on the method of project risk management, application and demonstration using the model of quantitative analysis on it, has a certain practical significance. Based on the theory of risk management of real estate projects, this paper takes Qufu green city residential project as the research object, and puts forward a set of feasible risk management measures for real estate projects. Including: (1) the risk, risk management, risk management methods were summarized; (2) to conduct a comprehensive analysis of Qufu Greentown residential projects, and the application of the Delphi method identify the main project risk: business risk, political risk, economic risk, natural risk and technical risk. (3) using AHP fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to comprehensively evaluate the development risk of Qufu Lvcheng residential project, and draw the conclusion that the comprehensive risk of the project is at a general level. (4) according to the risk assessment results of Qufu Greentown residential project, the project risk response brigade is put forward to minimize the risk and ensure the smooth implementation of the Greentown housing project. Taking the first phase residential project of Qufu green city as an example, this paper uses AHP and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to demonstrate the risk factors faced by the first phase residential project in Qufu, and try to draw some appropriate risk control measures. From a micro perspective, strengthening the research on risk assessment of real estate projects is conducive to improving the risk management system of real estate enterprises, ensuring the smooth implementation of projects, improving business profits and gaining profits. From a macro perspective, strengthening the risk assessment of real estate projects and improving the level of risk management of real estate projects is the inevitable requirement of a mature market economy. Everything in accordance with the laws of the market is conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of the real estate industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2014
【分類號】：TU71;F299.23

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