【摘要】：改革開放三十年以來,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展經(jīng)歷從持續(xù)高速增長到穩(wěn)步放緩提升的階段。隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)邁入新常態(tài),產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化升級,從投資驅(qū)動和要素驅(qū)動轉(zhuǎn)向創(chuàng)新驅(qū)動,新興產(chǎn)業(yè)異軍突起,體育產(chǎn)業(yè)成為令人矚目的新經(jīng)濟(jì)增長點(diǎn)。大力挖掘居民體育消費(fèi)潛力,對于促進(jìn)體育產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展、改善人們生活水平和拉動經(jīng)濟(jì)增長具有重要的理論意義和現(xiàn)實意義。本文以我國當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)轉(zhuǎn)型升級時期,體育產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變和經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)轉(zhuǎn)型升級為背景,以經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論和消費(fèi)理論為基礎(chǔ),建立分析框架,重點(diǎn)利用實證方法研究體育消費(fèi)的特征及其與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的關(guān)聯(lián)。全方位、多層面、動態(tài)評估體育消費(fèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng),深刻揭示體育消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的傳導(dǎo)渠道和作用機(jī)理,最后提出相關(guān)政策建議。研究結(jié)果表明:(1)體育消費(fèi)具有必然性、漸進(jìn)性和多樣性的特征。隨著人們生活水平的不斷變化,體育消費(fèi)也呈現(xiàn)出相對消費(fèi)模式變遷的幾個階段。(2)體育消費(fèi)水平和消費(fèi)結(jié)構(gòu)兩方面,總體看來,我國城鎮(zhèn)居民體育消費(fèi)主要集中在體育用品,體育服務(wù)、體育彩票、健身休閑、競賽表演、場館使用、中介培訓(xùn)等。(3)我國城鎮(zhèn)居民體育消費(fèi)的區(qū)域差異。選取我國東、中、西部的城鎮(zhèn)居民體育消費(fèi)總量,運(yùn)用泰爾指數(shù),測算區(qū)域間差異和區(qū)域內(nèi)差異對我國城市體育消費(fèi)總量總差異的貢獻(xiàn)率。我國城鎮(zhèn)居民體育消費(fèi)的區(qū)域間差異較大,但此差異呈逐年縮小的趨勢。這種失衡問題一個很重要的誘因在于經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的不平衡。(4)我國城鎮(zhèn)居民體育消費(fèi)總量對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng)的定量測度。運(yùn)用VAR模型的方法,選取1995-2013年的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),實證分析體育消費(fèi)的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長效應(yīng)。其分析結(jié)果顯示,體育消費(fèi)每變動一個百分點(diǎn),引起經(jīng)濟(jì)增長0.284個百分點(diǎn),并且城鎮(zhèn)居民體育消費(fèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展產(chǎn)生持續(xù)的影響。(5)體育消費(fèi)對經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)型升級有積極的促進(jìn)作用。這種作用可以從微觀層面和宏觀層面進(jìn)行分析,并通過因果累積循環(huán)機(jī)制強(qiáng)化其作用。
[Abstract]:Since 30 years of reform and opening-up, China's economic development has experienced a period from sustained high-speed growth to steady slowing and upgrading. With China's economy entering into the new normal, industrial structure optimization and upgrading, from investment-driven and factor-driven to innovation-driven, emerging industries emerge suddenly, sports industry has become a remarkable new economic growth point. It is of great theoretical and practical significance to tap the potential of residents' sports consumption in order to promote the development of sports industry, improve people's living standard and promote economic growth. Based on the current period of economic transformation and upgrading in China, the transformation of sports industry development mode and the transformation and upgrading of economic industrial structure, based on the theory of economic growth and the theory of consumption, this paper sets up an analytical framework. This paper focuses on using empirical methods to study the characteristics of sports consumption and its relationship with economic growth. All-round, multi-level, dynamic evaluation of the economic growth effect of sports consumption, deeply reveal the transmission channels and mechanism of sports consumption and economic growth, and finally put forward relevant policy recommendations. The results show that: (1) Sports consumption has the characteristics of inevitability, gradual development and diversity. With the continuous change of people's living standards, sports consumption also presents several stages of relative consumption pattern change. (2) the level of sports consumption and consumption structure, in general, appears. Sports consumption of urban residents in China is mainly concentrated in sports goods, sports services, sports lottery, fitness and leisure, competition performances, venue use, intermediary training and so on. (3) Regional differences in sports consumption of urban residents in China. The total sports consumption of urban residents in the east, middle and west of China is selected, and the contribution rate of regional difference and intra-regional difference to the total difference of urban sports consumption in China is calculated by using the Terre index. The regional difference of sports consumption of urban residents in China is quite different, but the difference is decreasing year by year. An important inducement of this imbalance is the imbalance of economic development. (4) the quantitative measurement of the effect of total sports consumption on economic growth of urban residents in China. By using the method of VAR model, the statistical data from 1995 to 2013 are selected to analyze the economic growth effect of sports consumption. The results of its analysis show that every change in sports consumption by one percentage point leads to an economic growth of 0.284 percentage points. And sports consumption of urban residents has a sustained impact on economic development. (5) Sports consumption has a positive role in promoting economic growth and the transformation and upgrading of economic development mode. This effect can be analyzed from the micro-level and macro-level, and strengthened by the causal cumulative cycle mechanism.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：武漢體育學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：G80-05

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