【摘要】：由于經(jīng)濟發(fā)展迅猛及人口劇增,水資源、水環(huán)境、人口及發(fā)展之間的矛盾愈演愈烈。開孔河流域的水資源存在空間分布及用水結(jié)構(gòu)不合理的情況,并對其社會經(jīng)濟的良性發(fā)展構(gòu)成了潛在威脅。從而,水資源承載力的評估可為缺水地區(qū)的水資源規(guī)劃提供依據(jù),同時便于管理者對當前環(huán)境和經(jīng)濟協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展采取應(yīng)對措施。本文以開孔河流域為研究對象,首先利用統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)建立水資源承載力系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,其次通過改變其決策變量設(shè)計3種方案:節(jié)水型、調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)型和綜合型方案。分別模擬了不同方案下2010年、2020年和2030年的總需水量和水資源供需差空間變化,最后通過熵值法計算流域水資源承載力空間分布,并將這兩種方法的研究結(jié)果做對比分析,給出一些提升流域水資源承載力的措施。本研究得到的主要結(jié)論如下:(1)運用系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型原理和地理信息系統(tǒng)功能,構(gòu)建了開孔河流域水資源承載力空間系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模型,并驗證該模型的有效性。檢驗結(jié)果表明,建立的模型是合理的,對歷史數(shù)據(jù)的擬合精度基本滿足要求,能夠較好的反映出實際系統(tǒng)的運行特征。(2)空間系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)模擬結(jié)果表明:流域的水資源供需差空間分布差異顯著,北部明顯高于南部。和靜縣的大部分區(qū)域水資源供需差均超過4.50×109 m~3;缺水最嚴重的是庫爾勒市,供需差為-9.65×108m~3。整體來看,從2010~2030年,流域的水資源供需差逐年增大,供需矛盾隨之加劇。(3)將節(jié)水型、調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)型和綜合型方案與常規(guī)發(fā)展模式進行對比分析得出,采取調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)型方案后,流域水資源承載力明顯下降,水資源供需矛盾最為突出;采取節(jié)水型方案后,流域的水資源承載力有所增加,增幅僅次于綜合型方案;在綜合型方案下,開孔河流域的水資源承載力大于前面任何一種單因素方案,故該方案最優(yōu)。(4)由熵值法計算研究表明:開孔河流域各縣市的水資源承載力表現(xiàn)為空間和時間差異都顯著的特征,且綜合水平較低。2020年的水資源承載力指數(shù)最低,其值為0.283,2030年出現(xiàn)最大值0.392,2010年的水資源承載力指數(shù)為0.364,介于二者之間。其中,水資源承載力指數(shù)的最大值為最小值的1.39倍,2010年~2020年的減小幅度為22.3%,而2020年到2030年的增加幅度為38.5%。(5)對比空間系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)和熵值法的水資源承載力評價結(jié)果得出,雖然兩種方法的原理不同,但得到的承載力空間分布趨勢基本一致,均能反映流域的實際承載狀況。(6)水資源承載力受到水資源量的影響較為顯著。從空間角度而言,在研究時段內(nèi),和靜縣的水資源承載力為流域最高,其次為庫爾勒市,尉犁縣最低。和靜縣水量豐富,故承載力較高,而尉犁縣的多年平均水資源量僅為0.1389×108 m~3,承載水平最低。
[Abstract]:The contradiction between water resources, water environment, population and development is becoming more and more serious due to the rapid economic development and the rapid increase of population. The spatial distribution of water resources and unreasonable structure of water use in Kaikong River Basin pose a potential threat to the benign development of its social economy. Therefore, the assessment of water resources carrying capacity can provide a basis for water resources planning in water-deficient areas, and facilitate managers to take measures to cope with the current coordinated development of environment and economy. In this paper, taking Kaikong River basin as the research object, firstly, the system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity is established by using statistical data. Secondly, by changing its decision variables, three schemes are designed: water-saving type, adjusting industrial structure type and comprehensive scheme. The spatial variation of total water demand and water supply-demand difference in 2010, 2020 and 2030 under different schemes are simulated respectively. Finally, the spatial distribution of water resources carrying capacity in watershed is calculated by entropy method, and the research results of the two methods are compared and analyzed. Some measures to improve the carrying capacity of water resources in the basin are given. The main conclusions obtained in this study are as follows: (1) the spatial system dynamics model of water resources carrying capacity in Kaikong River Basin is constructed by using the principle of system dynamics model and GIS function, and the validity of the model is verified. The test results show that the established model is reasonable, and the fitting precision of historical data basically meets the requirements. (2) the simulation results of spatial system dynamics show that the spatial distribution of the difference between water supply and demand in the basin is significant, and the difference between the water supply and demand in the north is significantly higher than that in the south. The difference of water supply and demand in most regions of Hejing County is more than 4.50 脳 109mm3; the most serious water shortage is in Kurle City, with a difference of-9.65 脳 108m / 3 and-9.65 脳 108mm3 路m ~ (- 1). Overall, from 2010 to 2030, the difference between water supply and demand has increased year by year, and the contradiction between supply and demand has intensified. (3) comparing and analyzing the water-saving, adjusting industrial structure and comprehensive scheme with the conventional development mode, After the adjustment of industrial structure, the carrying capacity of water resources in the basin decreased obviously, and the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources was the most prominent. After adopting the water-saving scheme, the carrying capacity of water resources in the basin has increased, which is second only to the comprehensive scheme. Under the comprehensive scheme, the carrying capacity of water resources in the Kaikong River basin is greater than that of any single-factor scheme. Therefore, the scheme is optimal. (4) the results of entropy calculation show that the water resources carrying capacity of the counties and cities in the Kaikong River basin is characterized by significant spatial and temporal differences, and the comprehensive level is lower. The index of water resources carrying capacity in 2020 is the lowest, and the water resources carrying capacity index in 2020 is the lowest. Its value is 0.283, the maximum value is 0.392 in 2030, and the carrying capacity index of water resources in 2010 is 0.364, which is between them. Among them, the maximum value of the carrying capacity index of water resources is 1.39 times of the minimum value, and the decrease from 2010 to 2020 is 22.3%. The increase from 2020 to 2030 is 38.5%. (5) comparing the evaluation results of spatial system dynamics and entropy method, the results show that although the principles of the two methods are different, the spatial distribution trend of bearing capacity is basically the same. All of them can reflect the actual carrying capacity of the basin. (6) the bearing capacity of water resources is significantly affected by the amount of water resources. From the point of view of space, the water resources carrying capacity of Hejing county is the highest in the research period, the next is Kurle city, and the lowest in Yuli county. Hejing County is rich in water quantity, so the bearing capacity is higher, while the average water resource in Yuli County is only 0.1389 脳 10 ~ 8 mm2 ~ 3, with the lowest load-bearing level.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：石河子大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：TV213.4

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