加納外部借貸對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)影響的實(shí)證研究
發(fā)布時(shí)間：2019-03-19 21:24
【摘要】：本論文的主要目的是確定外債對(duì)加納經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。這項(xiàng)研究用1970-2014年的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù)做了實(shí)證分析,涵蓋期45年。主要數(shù)據(jù)的來(lái)源包含世界銀行,國(guó)際貨幣基金組織,加納銀行,加納統(tǒng)計(jì)服務(wù)和財(cái)政部。在研究中采用實(shí)際GDP作為衡量經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的指標(biāo),外債存量(EXDS)作為債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)的指標(biāo),用外部債務(wù)償還(EXDSVIC)找出加納否有存在經(jīng)濟(jì)資本外流。建立這些主要的變量與對(duì)實(shí)際國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值之間的回歸關(guān)系。本文納入的其他經(jīng)濟(jì)變量還包括外匯的價(jià)格(PXF),出口額(EXPT)和資本形成總額(GCF)。首先,進(jìn)行單位根檢驗(yàn)以確定變量是否平穩(wěn)或它們是否同階單整。增廣Dickey Fuller(ADF)檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)果表明,變量均為一階單整。該研究使用Johansen Cointegration技術(shù)和跟蹤統(tǒng)計(jì)和Max Eigen值統(tǒng)計(jì)進(jìn)一步發(fā)現(xiàn)變量之間存在著長(zhǎng)期的協(xié)整關(guān)系。關(guān)于外債對(duì)加納的經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響,實(shí)證模型估計(jì)結(jié)果表明實(shí)際GDP的對(duì)數(shù)RGDP和外部債務(wù)存量對(duì)數(shù)EXDS之間存在正向的關(guān)系。當(dāng)外部債務(wù)存量EXDS變化1%時(shí)會(huì)導(dǎo)致實(shí)際GDP發(fā)生約0.00%的變化。說(shuō)明外部債務(wù)對(duì)有RGDP的影響很微弱,同時(shí)系數(shù)的符號(hào)正向表明在加納沒(méi)有債務(wù)負(fù)擔(dān)。然而,RGDP的對(duì)數(shù)與外部債務(wù)償還EXDSVIC對(duì)數(shù)之間存在負(fù)相關(guān)關(guān)系,表明加納存在經(jīng)濟(jì)資本外流。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明,外債償還每增加1%,將導(dǎo)致實(shí)際GDP減少約0.063%,即表現(xiàn)出負(fù)的彈性關(guān)系。研究結(jié)果還表明,出口額(EXPT)和資本形成總額(GCF)每1%的增加會(huì)分別導(dǎo)致RGDP增加約0.058%和0.069%。外匯的價(jià)格(PXF)與實(shí)際GDP存在正的彈性相關(guān)關(guān)系。模型估計(jì)結(jié)果表明,外匯價(jià)格發(fā)生1%的變化將導(dǎo)致實(shí)際GDP變化0.016%�；貧w模型的擬合優(yōu)度約為99.7%。論文采用格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)技術(shù)來(lái)確定RGDP與外債存量EXDS之間的因果關(guān)系。測(cè)試結(jié)果表明,這兩個(gè)變量之間存在單向因果關(guān)系:外部債務(wù)存量的對(duì)數(shù)是實(shí)際GDP對(duì)數(shù)的格蘭杰原因。為了進(jìn)一步了解外債對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響,本文還對(duì)加納外債與出口的關(guān)系以及出口額(EXPT)和資本形成總額(GFCF)之間的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析�；貧w結(jié)果表明,加納的出口和外債之間存在正彈性相關(guān)關(guān)系:外債每增加1%將導(dǎo)致出口增加約0.55%。另外,資本形成總額與出口額之間也存在正彈性相關(guān)關(guān)系:資本形成總額每1%的增加導(dǎo)致出口增加約0.45%,模型的擬合優(yōu)度為92.1%。基于以上研究結(jié)果,作者提出以下建議來(lái)幫助制定政策,減少外部借款,提出采取還本付息管理措施,以確保實(shí)際GDP的增長(zhǎng)。首先,研究結(jié)果表明,雖然影響非常小,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)和外部借貸之間確實(shí)有正相關(guān)關(guān)系。因此,建議將外債貸款投向資本基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施或高回報(bào)的資本產(chǎn)品,以保證經(jīng)濟(jì)的強(qiáng)勁增長(zhǎng)。研究結(jié)果還表明,外債償還對(duì)加納經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有退化效應(yīng)。因此,建議外債投資于資本項(xiàng)目,不需要很長(zhǎng)的醞釀期便能產(chǎn)生預(yù)期回報(bào)。此外,外部來(lái)源的資金應(yīng)該用于高回報(bào)的項(xiàng)目,這些項(xiàng)目的利潤(rùn)可以用來(lái)償還這些貸款,而不是通過(guò)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增加稅收來(lái)籌集足夠的收入來(lái)償還這些貸款。通過(guò)對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)增加稅收來(lái)還貸不僅妨礙向本土經(jīng)濟(jì)投資也可能迫使?jié)撛诘耐顿Y者將資本投資于本土經(jīng)濟(jì)之外,從而形成資本外逃。論文還建議,財(cái)政部的債務(wù)管理部門(mén)應(yīng)嚴(yán)格遵循償債時(shí)間表,減少不必要的延誤,因?yàn)楦嗟难舆t會(huì)導(dǎo)致利息積累而危害經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),這就是為什么這個(gè)變量的估計(jì)系數(shù)是負(fù)值的合理解釋。更進(jìn)一步的建議是,一旦加納依賴(lài)商品價(jià)格作為外匯來(lái)源,應(yīng)當(dāng)在商品出口前對(duì)商品增大附加值,使它們能賺取更多的外匯,以補(bǔ)充國(guó)內(nèi)儲(chǔ)蓄投資,這在某種程度上有助于減少對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)經(jīng)濟(jì)投資的外部借貸資金,也可以減少加納經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的貿(mào)易赤字。
[Abstract]:The main purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of external debt on the growth of Ghana's economy. The study used the time series data of 1970-2014 to make an empirical analysis, covering a period of 45 years. The main sources of data include the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Ghana Bank, the Ghana Statistical Service and the Ministry of Finance. In the study, using the real GDP as an indicator of the economic growth, the external debt stock (EXDS) is used as an indicator of the debt burden, and the external debt service (EXDSVIC) is used to find out that there is an outflow of economic capital in Ghana. The relationship between these major variables and actual gross domestic product (GDP) is established. Other economic variables included in this article also include the price of foreign exchange (PXF), the export volume (EXPT) and the total capital formation (GCF). First, a unit root test is performed to determine if the variable is stable or whether they are in the same order. The results of the Dichkey Fuller (ADF) test show that the variables are first-order single-integer. The study uses the Johansen Cointegration technique and the tracking statistics and the Max Eigen value statistics to further find a long-term co-integration relationship between variables. With regard to the effect of external debt on the economic growth of Ghana, the empirical model estimates show that there is a positive relationship between the log-RGDP of real GDP and the logarithmic EXDS of the external debt stock. When the external debt stock EXDS changes by 1%, it will result in a change in the actual GDP of about 0.00%. It is clear that the impact of external debt on the RGDP is weak, while the sign of the coefficient is indicating that there is no debt burden in Ghana. However, there is a negative correlation between the logarithm of RGDP and the logarithm of the external debt repayment EXDSVIC, which indicates that there is an outflow of economic capital in Ghana. The empirical result shows that the external debt repayment increases by 1%, which will result in a reduction of the real GDP by about 0.063%, that is, the negative elastic relationship. The results also show that the increase in exports (EXPT) and capital formation (GCF) per 1% will result in an increase in RGDP by about 0.058% and 0.069%, respectively. The price of foreign exchange (PXF) is positively related to the real GDP. The model estimates show that a 1% change in the foreign exchange price will result in an actual GDP change of 0.016%. The goodness of fit of the regression model is about 99.7%. The Granger causality test is used to determine the causal relationship between the RGDP and the external debt stock EXDS. The test results show that there is one-way causal relationship between the two variables: the logarithm of the external debt stock is the Granger cause of the actual GDP log. In order to further understand the effect of external debt on economic growth, this paper also makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the external debt and the export of Ghana, as well as the relationship between the export volume (EXPT) and the total capital formation (GFCF). The return results show that there is a positive and elastic relationship between the export of Ghana and the external debt: an increase of 1 per cent of external debt will result in an increase of about 0.55 per cent in exports. In addition, there is a positive correlation between the total capital formation and the export volume: the increase in capital formation per 1% results in an increase of about 0.45 per cent in the export and 92.1 per cent for the model. Based on the results of the above research, the authors put forward the following suggestions to help formulate policies, reduce external borrowing, and put forward the measures of debt service management to ensure the growth of real GDP. First, the results show that, while the impact is very small, there is a positive correlation between economic growth and external borrowing. It is therefore recommended that external debt loans be directed to capital infrastructure or high-return capital products to ensure a strong growth in the economy. The results of the study also show that the external debt repayment has a degradation effect on the growth of Ghana's economy. It is therefore recommended that external debt be invested in capital projects and that a long incubation period is not required to produce the expected return. In addition, external sources should be used for projects with high returns, and the profits of these projects can be used to repay those loans, rather than to raise enough revenue to repay the loans by raising taxes on the domestic economy. It is not only an obstacle to the domestic economic investment, but also to the potential investors to invest in the local economy, thus forming capital flight. The paper also suggests that the Ministry of Finance's debt management should strictly follow the debt-servicing schedule and reduce unnecessary delays, as more delays can lead to the accumulation of interest and harm the growth of the economy, which is why the estimation of this variable is a reasonable explanation of negative values. It is further suggested that, once Ghana is dependent on commodity prices as a source of foreign exchange, the value added to the commodities should be increased prior to the export of goods so that they can earn more foreign exchange in order to supplement domestic savings and investment, This will, to some extent, help to reduce external lending to domestic economic investment and to reduce the trade deficit in Ghana's economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F831.6;F144.5
，
本文編號(hào)：2443912
[Abstract]:The main purpose of this paper is to determine the impact of external debt on the growth of Ghana's economy. The study used the time series data of 1970-2014 to make an empirical analysis, covering a period of 45 years. The main sources of data include the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, the Ghana Bank, the Ghana Statistical Service and the Ministry of Finance. In the study, using the real GDP as an indicator of the economic growth, the external debt stock (EXDS) is used as an indicator of the debt burden, and the external debt service (EXDSVIC) is used to find out that there is an outflow of economic capital in Ghana. The relationship between these major variables and actual gross domestic product (GDP) is established. Other economic variables included in this article also include the price of foreign exchange (PXF), the export volume (EXPT) and the total capital formation (GCF). First, a unit root test is performed to determine if the variable is stable or whether they are in the same order. The results of the Dichkey Fuller (ADF) test show that the variables are first-order single-integer. The study uses the Johansen Cointegration technique and the tracking statistics and the Max Eigen value statistics to further find a long-term co-integration relationship between variables. With regard to the effect of external debt on the economic growth of Ghana, the empirical model estimates show that there is a positive relationship between the log-RGDP of real GDP and the logarithmic EXDS of the external debt stock. When the external debt stock EXDS changes by 1%, it will result in a change in the actual GDP of about 0.00%. It is clear that the impact of external debt on the RGDP is weak, while the sign of the coefficient is indicating that there is no debt burden in Ghana. However, there is a negative correlation between the logarithm of RGDP and the logarithm of the external debt repayment EXDSVIC, which indicates that there is an outflow of economic capital in Ghana. The empirical result shows that the external debt repayment increases by 1%, which will result in a reduction of the real GDP by about 0.063%, that is, the negative elastic relationship. The results also show that the increase in exports (EXPT) and capital formation (GCF) per 1% will result in an increase in RGDP by about 0.058% and 0.069%, respectively. The price of foreign exchange (PXF) is positively related to the real GDP. The model estimates show that a 1% change in the foreign exchange price will result in an actual GDP change of 0.016%. The goodness of fit of the regression model is about 99.7%. The Granger causality test is used to determine the causal relationship between the RGDP and the external debt stock EXDS. The test results show that there is one-way causal relationship between the two variables: the logarithm of the external debt stock is the Granger cause of the actual GDP log. In order to further understand the effect of external debt on economic growth, this paper also makes an empirical analysis of the relationship between the external debt and the export of Ghana, as well as the relationship between the export volume (EXPT) and the total capital formation (GFCF). The return results show that there is a positive and elastic relationship between the export of Ghana and the external debt: an increase of 1 per cent of external debt will result in an increase of about 0.55 per cent in exports. In addition, there is a positive correlation between the total capital formation and the export volume: the increase in capital formation per 1% results in an increase of about 0.45 per cent in the export and 92.1 per cent for the model. Based on the results of the above research, the authors put forward the following suggestions to help formulate policies, reduce external borrowing, and put forward the measures of debt service management to ensure the growth of real GDP. First, the results show that, while the impact is very small, there is a positive correlation between economic growth and external borrowing. It is therefore recommended that external debt loans be directed to capital infrastructure or high-return capital products to ensure a strong growth in the economy. The results of the study also show that the external debt repayment has a degradation effect on the growth of Ghana's economy. It is therefore recommended that external debt be invested in capital projects and that a long incubation period is not required to produce the expected return. In addition, external sources should be used for projects with high returns, and the profits of these projects can be used to repay those loans, rather than to raise enough revenue to repay the loans by raising taxes on the domestic economy. It is not only an obstacle to the domestic economic investment, but also to the potential investors to invest in the local economy, thus forming capital flight. The paper also suggests that the Ministry of Finance's debt management should strictly follow the debt-servicing schedule and reduce unnecessary delays, as more delays can lead to the accumulation of interest and harm the growth of the economy, which is why the estimation of this variable is a reasonable explanation of negative values. It is further suggested that, once Ghana is dependent on commodity prices as a source of foreign exchange, the value added to the commodities should be increased prior to the export of goods so that they can earn more foreign exchange in order to supplement domestic savings and investment, This will, to some extent, help to reduce external lending to domestic economic investment and to reduce the trade deficit in Ghana's economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F831.6;F144.5
，
本文編號(hào)：2443912
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