【摘要】：在信息經(jīng)濟(jì)高速發(fā)展的時(shí)代,信息化水平已成為推動(dòng)國(guó)家、地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展和貿(mào)易增長(zhǎng)的重要力量。外向型產(chǎn)業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)、出口附加值的提升依賴于出口商品復(fù)雜度的水平提高。探究信息化水平與貿(mào)易發(fā)展尤其是出口復(fù)雜度的關(guān)系顯得既有理論價(jià)值更具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。而現(xiàn)有研究少有信息化水平與出口復(fù)雜度的關(guān)系研究,因此探究信息化水平影響出口復(fù)雜度的機(jī)理與實(shí)證分析,對(duì)中國(guó)順利實(shí)現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易轉(zhuǎn)型具有重要的理論價(jià)值與現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。文章基于中國(guó)省際層面視角探析信息化水平對(duì)出口復(fù)雜度的影響。對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)外文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行總結(jié)分析的基礎(chǔ)上,對(duì)現(xiàn)有信息化水平和出口復(fù)雜度測(cè)度方法的適用范圍和優(yōu)缺點(diǎn)進(jìn)行系統(tǒng)比較。針對(duì)中國(guó)各地區(qū)的特殊情況建立新的信息化水平測(cè)度指標(biāo)體系,使該體系具有普遍適應(yīng)性,并根據(jù)國(guó)研網(wǎng)提供的2006-2014年出口貿(mào)易數(shù)據(jù)計(jì)算出口復(fù)雜度指標(biāo),為避免“統(tǒng)計(jì)假象”,建立新的測(cè)算方法以剔除中間品得到更為準(zhǔn)確的指標(biāo)結(jié)果,最后就指標(biāo)結(jié)果進(jìn)行橫縱向地分析研究。在理論分析環(huán)節(jié),本文在企業(yè)異質(zhì)性分析框架基礎(chǔ)上,探討了信息化影響出口復(fù)雜度的微觀機(jī)制,并進(jìn)一步探究信息化如何通過直接內(nèi)化效應(yīng)和間接外化效應(yīng)兩種渠道影響出口復(fù)雜度。在實(shí)證分析部分文章分別從全國(guó)和地區(qū)層面出發(fā),利用省際面板數(shù)據(jù)模型研究信息化水平對(duì)出口復(fù)雜度的影響,并通過分位數(shù)回歸探討不同水平出口復(fù)雜度受信息化影響程度的大小。通過實(shí)證分析得出結(jié)論：(1)我國(guó)整體信息化水平的上升會(huì)使貿(mào)易條件改善,但是各個(gè)地區(qū)有較大差異,東部地區(qū)信息化水平和出口復(fù)雜度均最高,西部地區(qū)暫時(shí)落后,從趨勢(shì)上發(fā)現(xiàn)我國(guó)整體呈齊頭并進(jìn)的升級(jí)模式,中西部地區(qū)正在加速向東部地區(qū)追趕。(2)信息化水平對(duì)出口復(fù)雜度的促進(jìn)作用存在“天花板效應(yīng)”。即信息化的促進(jìn)作用在出口復(fù)雜度中等水平達(dá)到峰值,形成要素累積推進(jìn)的加速階段。而在低水平出口復(fù)雜度環(huán)境下,要素匹配度低、起始成本高等原因造成一定的抑制性,而在高水平階段,邊際要素遞減效應(yīng)的存在使得信息化水平無(wú)法發(fā)揮最大價(jià)值。(3)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平仍然是對(duì)出口復(fù)雜度提升的主要推動(dòng)力。信息化要素雖然對(duì)出口復(fù)雜度存在正向的促進(jìn)效應(yīng),但是貢獻(xiàn)度還較低,這與我國(guó)目前信息技術(shù)水平、信息消費(fèi)能力、創(chuàng)新發(fā)展等有直接的影響�；谏鲜龇治�,本文提出相應(yīng)的政策建議：進(jìn)一步調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),以信息產(chǎn)業(yè)為出口貿(mào)易主要推動(dòng)力引領(lǐng)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)；統(tǒng)籌區(qū)域間信息化發(fā)展,提升全民素質(zhì)；建立信息化官方統(tǒng)計(jì)體系；認(rèn)清區(qū)域出口復(fù)雜度的差異性,實(shí)現(xiàn)區(qū)域均衡發(fā)展；推進(jìn)高技術(shù)含量產(chǎn)品出口貿(mào)易,實(shí)現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級(jí)。
[Abstract]:In the era of rapid development of information economy, the level of informatization has become an important force to promote national and regional economic development and trade growth. The transformation and upgrading of export-oriented industries and the increase of export value-added depend on the level of complexity of export commodities. It is of great practical significance to explore the relationship between informatization level and trade development, especially export complexity. However, there are few studies on the relationship between the level of informatization and the complexity of export. Therefore, it is of great theoretical and practical significance to explore the mechanism and empirical analysis of the level of informatization that affects the complexity of export, which is of great theoretical value and practical significance for the smooth realization of economic and trade transformation in China. Based on the interprovincial perspective of China, this paper analyzes the impact of informatization level on export complexity. Based on the summarization and analysis of domestic and foreign literature, this paper makes a systematic comparison of the scope of application, advantages and disadvantages of the existing measurement methods of informatization level and export complexity. According to the special situation of different regions in China, a new information level measurement index system is established, which makes the system have universal adaptability, and calculates the export complexity index according to the export trade data from 2006 to 2014 provided by the National Research Network. In order to avoid "statistical illusion", a new calculation method was established to get more accurate index results by eliminating intermediate products. Finally, the index results were analyzed and studied horizontally and vertically. In the theoretical analysis, based on the framework of enterprise heterogeneity analysis, this paper discusses the micro mechanism of informatization influencing export complexity. And further explore how informatization affects export complexity through direct internalization effect and indirect externalization effect. In the empirical analysis part of the article from the national and regional level, using inter-provincial panel data model to study the impact of information level on export complexity, Through quantile regression, the degree of influence of different levels of export complexity affected by information technology is discussed. The conclusions are as follows: (1) the rise of the overall informatization level in China will improve the terms of trade, but there are great differences among different regions, the information level and export complexity of the eastern region are the highest, and the western region lags behind temporarily. It is found from the trend that our country as a whole is advancing in parallel, and the central and western regions are accelerating to catch up to the east. (2) there is a "ceiling effect" in promoting the export complexity caused by the level of information technology. That is, the promotion of information technology reaches the peak at the medium level of export complexity, forming the accelerated stage of factor accumulation. However, in the environment of low level export complexity, the factor matching degree is low, the starting cost is high and so on, and at the high level stage, the factor matching degree is low and the initial cost is high. Because of the decreasing effect of marginal factors, the level of informatization can not play the greatest value. (3) the level of economic development is still the main driving force to increase the complexity of export. Although the information elements have a positive promoting effect on the export complexity, the contribution is still low, which has a direct impact on the current level of information technology, information consumption ability, innovation and development in China. Based on the above analysis, this paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions: to further adjust the industrial structure, to take the information industry as the main driving force of export trade to lead the economic growth, to plan the development of information technology among regions, and to improve the quality of the whole people; Establish the official statistics system of information technology; recognize the difference of the complexity of regional export, realize the balanced development of the region; promote the export trade of high-tech products and realize the upgrading of the industry.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62

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