人口紅利對黑龍江省裝備制造業(yè)轉型升級的影響研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-11-05 13:03
【摘要】：在經濟新常態(tài)下,黑龍江省的經濟發(fā)展水平一直處于相對低迷的狀態(tài),2016年3月2日的全國政協(xié)十二屆四次會議已經將"東北三省工業(yè)轉型升級問題"列為重點協(xié)商議題。裝備制造業(yè)作為工業(yè)發(fā)展的基礎,其轉型升級對黑龍江省經濟發(fā)展意義重大。影響裝備制造業(yè)轉型升級的因素有很多,人口紅利是其中的主要因素,尤其是在"科學技術是第一生產力"的今天,產業(yè)轉型升級不僅僅依靠人口數量與結構,更重要的是人口質量。人口紅利經歷傳統(tǒng)人口紅利和新人口紅利兩個時期,劉易斯拐點的出現標志著傳統(tǒng)人口紅利的消失同時也標志著新人口紅利時代的到來。傳統(tǒng)的人口紅利從人口結構性變化的角度來解釋經濟增長,其典型特點是勞動適齡人口比重提高和社會撫養(yǎng)系數下降。然而從黑龍江省近15年的人口統(tǒng)計數據來看,勞動適齡人口的比重增幅變小,社會撫養(yǎng)系數呈現先下降后增長的趨勢。并且預計在后15年,這種趨勢會愈加明顯。在新人口紅利時期,勞動人口數量的增速逐漸放緩,勞動人口質量的不斷提高,勞動密集型產業(yè)已經不能成為產業(yè)發(fā)展的優(yōu)勢,裝備制造業(yè)的轉型升級更需要勞動力質量的推動。文章分為三大部分共五章的內容,第一部分為理論概述部分,通過對產業(yè)轉型升級以及人口紅利的相關含義和相關理論的梳理,分析了黑龍江省傳統(tǒng)人口紅利、新人口紅利和裝備制造業(yè)的發(fā)展現狀,分別研究了傳統(tǒng)人口紅利和新人口紅利與黑龍江省裝備制造業(yè)產業(yè)轉型升級的關系。第二部分為實證部分,主要采用Pearson相關性法、多元線性回歸法,基于黑龍江省2001-2015年統(tǒng)計年鑒的客觀數據進行數據分析,分別研究了傳統(tǒng)人口紅利和新人口紅利對黑龍江省裝備制造業(yè)產業(yè)轉型的影響。研究表明:其一,在不考慮其它復雜因素條件下,下列影響因素對裝備制造業(yè)產值的影響程度由大到小排列為少兒撫養(yǎng)比老年撫養(yǎng)比勞動力投入固定資產投入,總撫養(yǎng)比勞動力投入固定資產投入。其二,高等教育畢業(yè)人數與就業(yè)人數之間存在顯著負相關關系,裝備制造業(yè)產業(yè)就業(yè)人數不隨高等教育畢業(yè)人數的增加而增加,裝備制造業(yè)對高等教育人才的需求不足。第三部分為對策建議部分。根據第二部分的實證分析結果,在明確人口紅利對產業(yè)轉型升級的影響后,提出了合理性建議,具體建議為進一步挖掘人口紅利的優(yōu)勢,創(chuàng)造人口紅利條件;完善教育體系,調整教育結構;提高勞動力投入。
[Abstract]:Under the new economic normal, the level of economic development in Heilongjiang Province has been in a relatively low state. The fourth session of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese people's political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) on March 2, 2016, has made "the issue of industrial transformation and upgrading in the three Northeast provinces" a key subject for consultation. As the foundation of industrial development, equipment manufacturing industry is of great significance to the economic development of Heilongjiang Province. There are many factors affecting the transformation and upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry, among which the demographic dividend is the main factor. Especially in today's "science and technology is the first productive force", the industrial transformation and upgrading is not only dependent on the number and structure of the population. More important is the quality of the population. The demographic dividend has experienced two periods: the traditional demographic dividend and the new demographic dividend. The emergence of Lewis inflection point marks the disappearance of the traditional demographic dividend and the arrival of the new demographic dividend era. The traditional demographic dividend explains the economic growth from the point of view of the structural change of the population. The typical characteristics of the dividend are the increase of the proportion of the working-age population and the decrease of the social dependency coefficient. However, according to the population statistics of Heilongjiang Province in the past 15 years, the proportion of the working-age population increased less, and the social dependency coefficient decreased first and then increased. And the trend is expected to grow in the next 15 years. During the period of the new demographic dividend, the growth rate of the number of the working population gradually slowed down, the quality of the working population was constantly improving, and the labor-intensive industries could no longer become an advantage in the development of industries. The transformation and upgrading of equipment manufacturing industry needs the promotion of labor quality. The article is divided into three parts and five chapters. The first part is the theoretical overview part. Through combing the related meanings and theories of the industrial transformation and the demographic dividend, the paper analyzes the traditional demographic dividend of Heilongjiang Province. The relationship between the traditional demographic dividend and the new demographic dividend and the transformation and upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry in Heilongjiang Province is studied. The second part is the empirical part, which mainly adopts the Pearson correlation method and the multivariate linear regression method to analyze the data based on the objective data of the 2001-2015 statistical yearbook of Heilongjiang Province. The effects of traditional demographic dividend and new demographic dividend on the transformation of equipment manufacturing industry in Heilongjiang Province were studied respectively. The results show that: first, without considering other complex factors, the following factors affect the equipment manufacturing output value from large to small, in the order of children's dependency ratio to old age dependency ratio labor input fixed assets investment. Total maintenance ratio of labor input into fixed assets investment. Secondly, there is a significant negative correlation between the number of graduates of higher education and the number of employed people. The employment of equipment manufacturing industry does not increase with the increase of the number of graduates of higher education, and the demand for talents of higher education in equipment manufacturing industry is insufficient. The third part is the countermeasure suggestion part. According to the results of the second part of the empirical analysis, after clarifying the impact of the demographic dividend on the industrial transformation and upgrading, the paper puts forward some reasonable suggestions, which is to further tap the advantages of the demographic dividend and create the conditions for the demographic dividend; We will improve the education system, readjust the educational structure, and increase the input of labor force.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱商業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426
本文編號：2312176
[Abstract]:Under the new economic normal, the level of economic development in Heilongjiang Province has been in a relatively low state. The fourth session of the 12th National Committee of the Chinese people's political Consultative Conference (CPPCC) on March 2, 2016, has made "the issue of industrial transformation and upgrading in the three Northeast provinces" a key subject for consultation. As the foundation of industrial development, equipment manufacturing industry is of great significance to the economic development of Heilongjiang Province. There are many factors affecting the transformation and upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry, among which the demographic dividend is the main factor. Especially in today's "science and technology is the first productive force", the industrial transformation and upgrading is not only dependent on the number and structure of the population. More important is the quality of the population. The demographic dividend has experienced two periods: the traditional demographic dividend and the new demographic dividend. The emergence of Lewis inflection point marks the disappearance of the traditional demographic dividend and the arrival of the new demographic dividend era. The traditional demographic dividend explains the economic growth from the point of view of the structural change of the population. The typical characteristics of the dividend are the increase of the proportion of the working-age population and the decrease of the social dependency coefficient. However, according to the population statistics of Heilongjiang Province in the past 15 years, the proportion of the working-age population increased less, and the social dependency coefficient decreased first and then increased. And the trend is expected to grow in the next 15 years. During the period of the new demographic dividend, the growth rate of the number of the working population gradually slowed down, the quality of the working population was constantly improving, and the labor-intensive industries could no longer become an advantage in the development of industries. The transformation and upgrading of equipment manufacturing industry needs the promotion of labor quality. The article is divided into three parts and five chapters. The first part is the theoretical overview part. Through combing the related meanings and theories of the industrial transformation and the demographic dividend, the paper analyzes the traditional demographic dividend of Heilongjiang Province. The relationship between the traditional demographic dividend and the new demographic dividend and the transformation and upgrading of the equipment manufacturing industry in Heilongjiang Province is studied. The second part is the empirical part, which mainly adopts the Pearson correlation method and the multivariate linear regression method to analyze the data based on the objective data of the 2001-2015 statistical yearbook of Heilongjiang Province. The effects of traditional demographic dividend and new demographic dividend on the transformation of equipment manufacturing industry in Heilongjiang Province were studied respectively. The results show that: first, without considering other complex factors, the following factors affect the equipment manufacturing output value from large to small, in the order of children's dependency ratio to old age dependency ratio labor input fixed assets investment. Total maintenance ratio of labor input into fixed assets investment. Secondly, there is a significant negative correlation between the number of graduates of higher education and the number of employed people. The employment of equipment manufacturing industry does not increase with the increase of the number of graduates of higher education, and the demand for talents of higher education in equipment manufacturing industry is insufficient. The third part is the countermeasure suggestion part. According to the results of the second part of the empirical analysis, after clarifying the impact of the demographic dividend on the industrial transformation and upgrading, the paper puts forward some reasonable suggestions, which is to further tap the advantages of the demographic dividend and create the conditions for the demographic dividend; We will improve the education system, readjust the educational structure, and increase the input of labor force.
【學位授予單位】：哈爾濱商業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F426
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