人民幣匯率變動對新疆FDI影響研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-07-24 19:25
【摘要】：改革開放以來,國際直接投資取得了快速的發(fā)展。2014年我國首次超過美國成為全球最大的國際直接投資國,全年共吸收1290億美元,被評為“最有吸引力”的投資國。匯率與FDI關(guān)系的研究起源于布雷頓森林體系崩潰,原有的體系崩潰后,各國相繼實施浮動匯率制度。新疆作為絲綢之路經(jīng)濟帶的中心區(qū)域,中國與中亞各國交流的窗口,國際直接投資帶動新疆實現(xiàn)產(chǎn)業(yè)升級和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,對于新疆的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展具有至關(guān)重要的作用。本文在遵循相對成本理論、相對財富理論、區(qū)位轉(zhuǎn)移理論、風(fēng)險偏好理論理論等一般理論的基礎(chǔ)上,極大的豐富和發(fā)展了匯率變動對FDI的相關(guān)理論。研究新疆FDI與匯率變動的關(guān)系重要的理論意義和實踐意義。本研究在遵循相對成本理論、相對財富理論、區(qū)位轉(zhuǎn)移理論、風(fēng)險偏好理論的基礎(chǔ)上,利用1994—2014年統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),對人民幣匯率變動對新疆FDI影響研究。首先人民幣匯率變動對新疆FDI的影響狀況,主要按闡述經(jīng)濟轉(zhuǎn)軌時期雙重匯率制度及匯率變動狀況、匯率并軌時期釘住匯率制度及匯率變動狀況、有管理的浮動匯率制度及匯率變動狀況;闡述新疆FDI總體規(guī)模的狀況、新疆FDI投資行業(yè)的狀況、新疆FDI投資地區(qū)的狀況;闡述人民幣匯率變動對新疆FDI的影響現(xiàn)狀的分析;其次人民幣匯率變動對新疆FDI影響的實證分析。對人民幣匯率變動對新疆FDI規(guī)模影響的實證分析,對指標(biāo)的選取與數(shù)據(jù)的說明,模型的選擇與實證方法,對人民幣匯率變動對新疆FDI總體規(guī)模的影響實證分析;對人民幣匯率變動對新疆地區(qū)不同類型的國際直接投資影響的實證分析,對指標(biāo)的選取與數(shù)據(jù)的說明,模型的選擇與實證方法,人民幣匯率變動對新疆出口導(dǎo)向型FDI影響的實證分析,人民幣匯率變動對新疆服務(wù)導(dǎo)向型FDI影響的實證分析;對人民幣匯率變動對新疆地區(qū)不同地區(qū)的國際直接投資影響的實證分析,對指標(biāo)的選取與數(shù)據(jù)的說明,模型的選擇與實證方法,先是模型的選擇,人民幣匯率變動對南疆FDI影響的實證分析,人民幣匯率變動對北疆FDI影響的實證分析;最后,對于本章得出的結(jié)論進行總結(jié)。實證結(jié)果表明人民幣匯率升值抑制新疆總體規(guī)模FDI,匯率波動會抑制新疆總體規(guī)模FDI,人民幣升值會抑制新疆出口導(dǎo)向型FDI,人民幣升值會促進新疆服務(wù)導(dǎo)向型FDI,人民幣匯率升值抑制北疆FDI,人民幣匯率升值促進南疆FDI。本文根據(jù)實證結(jié)果提出了對策建議,人民幣匯率貶值和升值是中國人民銀行所考慮關(guān)注的事情。對于新疆地方政府而言,要應(yīng)對人民幣升值或者貶值后,地方政府應(yīng)該采取相應(yīng)對策,首先,人民幣貶值背景下,調(diào)整相應(yīng)的政策吸收國際直接投資。改善投資硬環(huán)境和軟環(huán)境,調(diào)整法規(guī)政策,以期促進服務(wù)導(dǎo)向型FDI,促進南疆地區(qū)吸收更多的FDI。其次,人民幣升值背景下,調(diào)整相應(yīng)的政策吸收國際直接投資。在升值背景下,地方政府應(yīng)該積極制定相關(guān)的投資政策、產(chǎn)業(yè)政策、稅收政策、金融政策等來吸引國際直接投資,需要更多的合理引導(dǎo)FDI。最后,人民幣保持穩(wěn)定背景下,采取相應(yīng)的政策促進國際直接投資。新疆充分發(fā)揮強大的產(chǎn)業(yè)關(guān)聯(lián)效應(yīng),實現(xiàn)技術(shù)經(jīng)濟的共同發(fā)展。從區(qū)域發(fā)展的角度方向,應(yīng)積極引導(dǎo)外商投向基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施、基礎(chǔ)制造、裝備制造、高科技產(chǎn)業(yè)等等。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the international direct investment has made rapid development in.2014 years. In the first time, China exceeded the United States and became the largest international direct investment country in the world. The total absorption of US $129 billion was the most attractive investment country for the whole year. The study of the relationship between exchange rate and FDI originated from the collapse of the Layton forest system and the collapse of the original system, As the central region of the economic belt of the Silk Road, Xinjiang is the center of the economic belt of the Silk Road, the window of exchange between China and the countries of Central Asia, and the international direct investment to promote the industrial upgrading and structural adjustment of Xinjiang, which plays a vital role in the economic development of Xinjiang. On the basis of the general theory of position transfer theory and risk preference theory, it greatly enriches and develops the relative theory of exchange rate change to FDI. It is important to study the theoretical and practical significance of the relationship between Xinjiang FDI and exchange rate change. On the basis of the statistical data from 1994 to 2014, the influence of RMB exchange rate changes on the Xinjiang FDI is studied. First, the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate on the Xinjiang FDI, mainly according to the dual exchange rate regime and exchange rate changes in the period of economic transition, the exchange rate system and exchange rate changes in the period of the exchange rate, and the fluctuation of management. Exchange rate system and exchange rate change state, the situation of Xinjiang FDI overall scale, Xinjiang FDI investment industry status, Xinjiang FDI investment area status, the analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate change on Xinjiang FDI; secondly, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate change to Xinjiang FDI. The change of RMB exchange rate to Xinjiang FDI regulation The empirical analysis of the influence of the model, the selection of the index and the data, the selection of the model and the empirical method, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate change on the overall scale of the FDI in Xinjiang; the analysis of the impact of the change of the exchange rate of RMB on the different types of international direct investment in Xinjiang, the selection of the indexes and the explanation of the data. The empirical analysis of the effect of RMB exchange rate change on Xinjiang export oriented FDI, the empirical analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate change on Xinjiang service oriented type, the empirical analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the international direct investment in different regions of Xinjiang, and the selection of indicators and data. The selection and empirical method of the model, first the choice of the model, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate on the FDI in southern Xinjiang, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate on the FDI in Northern Xinjiang. Finally, the conclusion is summed up in this chapter. The empirical results show that the appreciation of RMB exchange rate inhibits the overall scale of Xinjiang FDI, and the exchange rate fluctuations will be suppressed. The overall scale of Xinjiang is FDI, the appreciation of RMB will inhibit the Xinjiang export oriented FDI, the appreciation of RMB will promote the service oriented FDI of Xinjiang, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate inhibits FDI in Northern Xinjiang, and the appreciation of RMB exchange rate promotes the FDI. in southern Xinjiang, and this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions based on the empirical results. For Xinjiang local government, the local government should take corresponding countermeasures to cope with the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB. First, under the background of the depreciation of the RMB, the corresponding policies should be adjusted to absorb the international direct investment, improve the investment hard environment and soft environment, and adjust the regulations and policies in order to promote the service oriented FDI and promote the south. Under the background of the appreciation, the local government should actively formulate relevant investment policies, industrial policies, tax policies and financial policies to attract international direct investment under the background of appreciation. In the context of appreciation, the local government should attract more international direct investment, which needs more reasonable guidance of the FDI., and the RMB will be maintained at the end. Under the stable background, we should adopt the corresponding policy to promote the international direct investment. Xinjiang should give full play to the strong industrial association effect and realize the common development of technology and economy. From the perspective of regional development, we should actively guide foreign investment to infrastructure, basic manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, high technology industry and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：石河子大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6
本文編號：2142408
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, the international direct investment has made rapid development in.2014 years. In the first time, China exceeded the United States and became the largest international direct investment country in the world. The total absorption of US $129 billion was the most attractive investment country for the whole year. The study of the relationship between exchange rate and FDI originated from the collapse of the Layton forest system and the collapse of the original system, As the central region of the economic belt of the Silk Road, Xinjiang is the center of the economic belt of the Silk Road, the window of exchange between China and the countries of Central Asia, and the international direct investment to promote the industrial upgrading and structural adjustment of Xinjiang, which plays a vital role in the economic development of Xinjiang. On the basis of the general theory of position transfer theory and risk preference theory, it greatly enriches and develops the relative theory of exchange rate change to FDI. It is important to study the theoretical and practical significance of the relationship between Xinjiang FDI and exchange rate change. On the basis of the statistical data from 1994 to 2014, the influence of RMB exchange rate changes on the Xinjiang FDI is studied. First, the influence of the change of RMB exchange rate on the Xinjiang FDI, mainly according to the dual exchange rate regime and exchange rate changes in the period of economic transition, the exchange rate system and exchange rate changes in the period of the exchange rate, and the fluctuation of management. Exchange rate system and exchange rate change state, the situation of Xinjiang FDI overall scale, Xinjiang FDI investment industry status, Xinjiang FDI investment area status, the analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate change on Xinjiang FDI; secondly, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate change to Xinjiang FDI. The change of RMB exchange rate to Xinjiang FDI regulation The empirical analysis of the influence of the model, the selection of the index and the data, the selection of the model and the empirical method, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate change on the overall scale of the FDI in Xinjiang; the analysis of the impact of the change of the exchange rate of RMB on the different types of international direct investment in Xinjiang, the selection of the indexes and the explanation of the data. The empirical analysis of the effect of RMB exchange rate change on Xinjiang export oriented FDI, the empirical analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate change on Xinjiang service oriented type, the empirical analysis of the impact of RMB exchange rate changes on the international direct investment in different regions of Xinjiang, and the selection of indicators and data. The selection and empirical method of the model, first the choice of the model, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate on the FDI in southern Xinjiang, the empirical analysis of the influence of RMB exchange rate on the FDI in Northern Xinjiang. Finally, the conclusion is summed up in this chapter. The empirical results show that the appreciation of RMB exchange rate inhibits the overall scale of Xinjiang FDI, and the exchange rate fluctuations will be suppressed. The overall scale of Xinjiang is FDI, the appreciation of RMB will inhibit the Xinjiang export oriented FDI, the appreciation of RMB will promote the service oriented FDI of Xinjiang, the appreciation of RMB exchange rate inhibits FDI in Northern Xinjiang, and the appreciation of RMB exchange rate promotes the FDI. in southern Xinjiang, and this paper puts forward the countermeasures and suggestions based on the empirical results. For Xinjiang local government, the local government should take corresponding countermeasures to cope with the appreciation or depreciation of the RMB. First, under the background of the depreciation of the RMB, the corresponding policies should be adjusted to absorb the international direct investment, improve the investment hard environment and soft environment, and adjust the regulations and policies in order to promote the service oriented FDI and promote the south. Under the background of the appreciation, the local government should actively formulate relevant investment policies, industrial policies, tax policies and financial policies to attract international direct investment under the background of appreciation. In the context of appreciation, the local government should attract more international direct investment, which needs more reasonable guidance of the FDI., and the RMB will be maintained at the end. Under the stable background, we should adopt the corresponding policy to promote the international direct investment. Xinjiang should give full play to the strong industrial association effect and realize the common development of technology and economy. From the perspective of regional development, we should actively guide foreign investment to infrastructure, basic manufacturing, equipment manufacturing, high technology industry and so on.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：石河子大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6
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