本文選題：出口二元邊際 + 外延邊際　； 參考：《華中科技大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展進(jìn)入新常態(tài),我國的對(duì)外貿(mào)易也進(jìn)入了以穩(wěn)增長(zhǎng)、調(diào)結(jié)構(gòu)、提質(zhì)量為特征的新常態(tài),大規(guī)模數(shù)量擴(kuò)張的需求基礎(chǔ)不復(fù)存在,市場(chǎng)競(jìng)爭(zhēng)逐步轉(zhuǎn)向質(zhì)量型、差異化為主的競(jìng)爭(zhēng),對(duì)外貿(mào)易特別是對(duì)外貿(mào)易的多樣化擴(kuò)張如何影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),成為迫切需要解決的理論和現(xiàn)實(shí)問題。從這一點(diǎn)出發(fā),本文在對(duì)我國對(duì)外貿(mào)易進(jìn)行二元分解的基礎(chǔ)上,利用計(jì)量模型探究研究二元邊際對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響方向和作用大小,并提出對(duì)應(yīng)的政策建議,這對(duì)于促進(jìn)我國對(duì)外貿(mào)易和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的持續(xù)平衡發(fā)展具有重大意義。本文借鑒國外經(jīng)典理論和模型,將出口多樣化(外延邊際)納入經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)函數(shù)中,解釋出口多樣化影響經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的微觀機(jī)理。然后,采用CEPII BACI數(shù)據(jù)庫按HS96分類的、共242個(gè)國家和5068種六位數(shù)級(jí)商品編碼代表的產(chǎn)品在1998-2014年的進(jìn)出口數(shù)據(jù),從國家和行業(yè)層面對(duì)出口二元邊際進(jìn)行了分解測(cè)度和分析。緊接著,構(gòu)建計(jì)量模型并通過實(shí)證研究檢驗(yàn)出口二元邊際對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響方向和作用大小,并對(duì)相應(yīng)結(jié)果做出合理解釋。從二元邊際的分解測(cè)度看,中國出口增長(zhǎng)源于外延邊際的貢獻(xiàn)小于美國、德國等發(fā)達(dá)國家,源于內(nèi)延邊際的貢獻(xiàn)大于外延邊際;中國資源型或勞動(dòng)密集型行業(yè)如紡織工業(yè)外延邊際較高,但無增幅,資金和技術(shù)密集型工業(yè)如機(jī)械工業(yè)、化工工業(yè)外延邊際呈現(xiàn)波動(dòng)上升,除石油、煤炭等能源工業(yè),其他工業(yè)內(nèi)延邊際指數(shù)均不斷上升。實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示,外延邊際均有助于促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng),發(fā)達(dá)國家的促進(jìn)作用更大;發(fā)達(dá)國家的內(nèi)延邊際對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有負(fù)向影響,而發(fā)展中國家的內(nèi)延邊際對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增有微弱的正向影響。中國工業(yè)整體上,出口增長(zhǎng)二元邊際對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)均有正向促進(jìn)作用,外延邊際的正向作用更大。其中,資源型、勞動(dòng)密集型工業(yè)的外延邊際顯對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有促進(jìn)作用,資本、技術(shù)型工業(yè)的外延邊際對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有微弱的抑制作用。
[Abstract]:As China's economic development enters the new normal, China's foreign trade has entered a new normal characterized by steady growth, structural adjustment and quality improvement. The demand basis for large-scale quantitative expansion has ceased to exist, and the market competition has gradually shifted to the qualitative type. How the diversification of foreign trade, especially the expansion of foreign trade, affects economic growth has become an urgent theoretical and practical problem to be solved. From this point of view, on the basis of the dualistic decomposition of China's foreign trade, this paper uses the econometric model to explore the direction and size of the influence of duality marginal on economic growth, and puts forward corresponding policy recommendations. It is of great significance to promote the sustainable and balanced development of China's foreign trade and economic growth. In this paper, the export diversification (extension margin) is incorporated into the economic growth function for reference to foreign classical theories and models, and the micro mechanism of export diversification affecting economic growth is explained. Then, the import and export data of 242 countries and 5068 kinds of products represented by six-digit commodity coding in 1998-2014 are analyzed and analyzed in terms of national and industry level by using the CEPII BACI database classified by HS96. Then, the econometric model is constructed and the influence direction and effect of dualistic marginal of export on economic growth are tested through empirical research, and the corresponding results are explained reasonably. According to the decomposition measure of dualistic margin, the contribution of China's export growth from the extension margin is smaller than that from the developed countries such as the United States and Germany, and the contribution from the internal extension margin is greater than that from the extension margin. China's resource-based or labor-intensive industries, such as the textile industry, have a relatively high extension margin, but no increase, while capital and technology-intensive industries such as machinery industries and chemical industry industries show fluctuations and rise, except for oil, coal and other energy industries. Other industries within the Yanbian index are rising. The empirical results show that the extension margin contributes to economic growth, while the developed countries play a more important role in promoting economic growth, and the inner boundary of developed countries has a negative impact on economic growth. But the developing country's inner extension edge has the weak positive influence to the economic growth. In China's industry as a whole, the dual marginal of export growth has a positive effect on economic growth, and the positive effect of the extension margin is even greater. Among them, the extension margin of resource-type and labor-intensive industry can promote the economic growth, while the extension margin of capital and technology industry has a weak inhibitory effect on economic growth.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華中科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F752.62;F124.1

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