本文選題：美國 + QE��； 參考：《新疆財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：2008年,隨著雷曼兄弟的破產(chǎn),源于美國的次貸危機(jī)開始席卷全球,世界各國經(jīng)濟(jì)受到嚴(yán)重影響。為了穩(wěn)定金融市場,促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)快速復(fù)蘇,在傳統(tǒng)貨幣政策對經(jīng)濟(jì)刺激無效的情況下,美國推出了量化寬松政策。長達(dá)七年的量化寬松政策釋放出了大量流動性,它不僅拯救了美國經(jīng)濟(jì),還會產(chǎn)生溢出效應(yīng)進(jìn)而引起其他國家跨境資本流入,對新興市場國家的經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生影響。本文就是在此背景下采用實(shí)證分析的研究方法,探究美國QE調(diào)整中國跨境資本流動的影響,最后提出相關(guān)政策建議。首先緒論章節(jié)闡述了本文的選題背景即在金融危機(jī)爆發(fā)后美國實(shí)施與退出QE對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生了巨大影響,以及本研究的學(xué)術(shù)意義和實(shí)際意義,介紹了國際資本流動的動因理論、流量理論、貨幣分析理論及其與政策制度關(guān)系理論等研究理論基礎(chǔ)。然后對相關(guān)研究文獻(xiàn)進(jìn)行綜述與評述,包括量化寬松政策的理論基礎(chǔ)、關(guān)于量化寬松政策影響的研究以及關(guān)于量化寬松政策退出影響的研究這三個主要方面。接著介紹本文的研究思路、方法及框架安排,最后指出本文的創(chuàng)新與不足。在正文的內(nèi)容方面,首先介紹美國實(shí)施量化寬松政策的背景及原因、回顧量化寬松政策的開展;研究了美國量化寬松政策的退出,分析美國退出QE的背景以及退出必要性、研究QE的退出步驟;探究了美國QE實(shí)施及退出期間國際跨境資本的流動情況,先分析整個國際資本的流動方向和趨勢,又具體研究美國的跨境資本流動和新興市場國家的跨境資本流動趨勢,最后說明了美國QE實(shí)施及退出期間中國的國際資本流動情況,主要研究對象為資本和金融項(xiàng)目的變動、銀行結(jié)售匯金額的變動以及銀行代客跨境收付業(yè)務(wù)的情況,并對上述能夠代表中國跨境資本流動的指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行深入分析并得出規(guī)律。本篇文章的核心部分首先對美國貨幣政策對中國國際資本流動的具體影響因素進(jìn)行了深入分析,主要包括:經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險、流動性、利率、匯率以及經(jīng)濟(jì)增長和中國的資產(chǎn)價格等其他因素。在此基礎(chǔ)上研究他們的變動方向并從中選擇出了最重要的影響因素。然后將美國QE調(diào)整對中國國際資本流動的影響進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析,筆者把量化寬松實(shí)施及退出期間影響中國跨境資本流動的主要因素逐個進(jìn)行分析并初步建立計(jì)量模型。由此筆者選取了中國資本金融賬戶的借方余額作為被解釋變量,以此來表示中國跨境資本的流出;解釋變量主要選取了以下四個:(1)美聯(lián)儲資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表中“持有的證券”項(xiàng)目的余額。購債是美國實(shí)施QE的主要手段之一,因此該變量能夠反映美聯(lián)儲的購債情況。(2)美國聯(lián)邦基金利率。美國QE期間一直將基準(zhǔn)利率保持在低位,聯(lián)邦基金利率是實(shí)施及退出量化寬松的最重要的貨幣政策工具。(3)QE退出預(yù)期。2013年美國發(fā)出即將退出QE的信號,此時正是由于QE的退出預(yù)期許多新興市場國家遭遇了跨境資本大量外流的情況。(4)美國的貨幣供應(yīng)量M2。美國的貨幣供應(yīng)量M2能夠反映美國的貨幣政策實(shí)施情況。其次,筆者經(jīng)過搜集、整理和計(jì)算得到了上述變量的2007年一季度至今的季度數(shù)據(jù),運(yùn)用eviews7.2計(jì)量軟件進(jìn)行分析處理、實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),并運(yùn)用了Johenson協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)和格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)方法,最后對實(shí)證結(jié)果進(jìn)行匯總分析、得出結(jié)論。結(jié)果顯示美國QE調(diào)整通過利率渠道和流動性渠道對中國的跨境資本流動產(chǎn)生影響,并確定了資本流動的方向。結(jié)論和政策建議部分,從前面章節(jié)的研究結(jié)果出發(fā),分析問題并針對如何避免跨境資本流動的劇烈波動提出相關(guān)政策建議,主要是針對中國的建議。提出相應(yīng)對策以應(yīng)對美國QE的調(diào)整,包括加快中國的經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)業(yè)化升級、加速推進(jìn)利率市場化進(jìn)程、推進(jìn)人民幣匯率形成機(jī)制、加強(qiáng)對跨境資金流動的雙向監(jiān)測以及加強(qiáng)國際金融合作。
[Abstract]:In 2008, with the bankruptcy of Lehman brothers, the subprime crisis of the United States began to sweep around the world, and the economies of all countries were seriously affected. In order to stabilize the financial market and promote the rapid economic recovery, the United States launched a quantitative easing policy for seven years in the case of the traditional monetary policy ineffective. There is a lot of liquidity, which not only saves the American economy, but also produces spillover effects and other countries' cross-border capital inflow, which has an impact on the economy of emerging market countries. In this context, this paper uses empirical analysis to explore the influence of American QE on the adjustment of cross-border capital flows in the United States and finally put forward relevant policies. The first chapter of the introduction expounds the background of this article, which is the great influence of the American implementation and withdrawal of QE on the global economy after the outbreak of the financial crisis, as well as the academic and practical significance of this study, and introduces the motivation theory of international capital flow, the theory of flow, the theory of monetary analysis and the relationship theory with the policy system. And then review and review the relevant research literature, including the theoretical basis of the quantitative easing policy, the research on the impact of quantitative easing policy and the study of the impact of the exit of quantitative easing policy, and then introduce the research ideas, methods and framework arrangements of this paper, and finally point out this article. In the content of the text, it first introduces the background and reasons of the implementation of the quantitative easing policy in the United States, reviews the development of quantitative easing policy, studies the withdrawal of quantitative easing policy in the United States, analyzes the background and necessity of withdrawal of the American QE, studies the exit steps of QE, and probes into the state of the implementation and withdrawal of QE in the United States. The flow of cross-border capital is analyzed first, the flow direction and trend of the whole international capital are analyzed, and the cross-border capital flows of the United States and the trend of cross-border capital flow in emerging market countries are specifically studied. Finally, the international capital flow situation in China during the implementation and withdrawal of QE in the United States is illustrated. The main object of this study is the capital and financial projects. Changes in the changes in the amount of the bank's exchange of foreign exchange as well as the situation of the bank's transboundary collection and payment, and a thorough analysis of the above indicators that can represent the cross-border capital flow in China. The core part of this article is first to make a thorough study of the specific influence factors of the American monetary policy on the flow of international capital in China. The analysis mainly includes: economic risk, liquidity, interest rate, exchange rate and other factors such as economic growth and China's asset price. On this basis, we study their change direction and choose the most important factors from it. Then, the author makes an empirical analysis of the impact of American QE adjustment on the international capital flow in China, and the author quantifies it. The main factors affecting China's cross-border capital flow during the period of looser implementation and withdrawal are analyzed and initially established. The author chooses the debit balance of China's capital financial account as an explanatory variable to indicate the outflow of China's cross-border capital; the explanatory variables are mainly selected as the following four: (1) the fed capital The balance of the "held securities" item in the balance sheet. Debt purchase is one of the main means to implement the QE in the United States, so the variable can reflect the Fed's debt purchase. (2) the U.S. federal fund rate. The US QE has kept the benchmark interest rate low during the United States, and the federal fund rate is the most important currency for implementing and withdrawing quantitative easing. Policy tools. (3) QE withdrawal from expected.2013, the United States issued a signal to exit the QE, this time is due to the withdrawal of QE in many emerging market countries encountered a large number of cross-border capital outflows. (4) the US monetary supply M2. US monetary supply M2 can reflect the implementation of the United States monetary policy. Secondly, the author Collecting, sorting and calculating the quarterly data of the first quarter of 2007, using eviews7.2 software for analysis and processing, empirical test, and using Johenson cointegration test and Grainger causality test method. Finally, the empirical results are summarized and analyzed, and the results show that American QE adjusted through the interest rate. Channels and liquidity channels have an impact on China's cross-border capital flows and determine the direction of capital flows. Conclusion and policy recommendations, from the results of the previous chapters, analyze the problems and put forward relevant policies and suggestions on how to avoid strenuous fluctuations in cross-border capital flows, mainly in view of China's proposals. The countermeasures should deal with the adjustment of QE in the United States, including accelerating the upgrading of China's economic structure industrialization, accelerating the process of interest rate marketization, promoting the formation mechanism of the RMB exchange rate, strengthening two-way monitoring of cross-border capital flows and strengthening international financial cooperation.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：新疆財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F832.6;F827.12

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