本文選題：鋼鐵行業(yè) + 產(chǎn)能過剩��； 參考：《河北大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展步入新常態(tài),加之鋼鐵產(chǎn)能的擴(kuò)張與需求的萎縮,鋼鐵行業(yè)產(chǎn)能過剩問題愈加凸顯。河北省是鋼鐵大省,粗鋼產(chǎn)量多年全國(guó)第一,面對(duì)如此嚴(yán)峻的產(chǎn)能過剩情況,對(duì)河北鋼鐵產(chǎn)能過剩及供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革研究就顯得尤為重要。本文首先對(duì)產(chǎn)能過剩和供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的概念界定等基本問題進(jìn)行了分析,然后闡述了目前河北鋼鐵產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展?fàn)顩r及產(chǎn)能過剩情況,對(duì)河北省鋼鐵產(chǎn)能過剩的原因、類型,供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革效應(yīng)進(jìn)行了分析,以全面了解河北鋼鐵產(chǎn)能過剩及供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革情況,以期為深化河北鋼鐵供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革建議的提出奠定堅(jiān)實(shí)的基礎(chǔ)。隨后本文從“去產(chǎn)能”對(duì)河北鋼鐵產(chǎn)能利用率的影響以及“去產(chǎn)能”對(duì)河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響兩個(gè)方面來對(duì)河北省鋼鐵供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革效應(yīng)進(jìn)行分析。首先,以兩種假設(shè)的情況分別分析減少粗鋼產(chǎn)量對(duì)河北省鋼鐵產(chǎn)能利用率的影響,得出無論一開始產(chǎn)能利用率怎樣變化,最終河北省鋼鐵產(chǎn)能利用率都是提高的;其次分析了“去產(chǎn)能”對(duì)河北省經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響效應(yīng),運(yùn)用計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的eviews軟件,對(duì)相關(guān)指標(biāo)進(jìn)行分析,依據(jù)時(shí)間序列建立VAR模型,在對(duì)模型進(jìn)行穩(wěn)定性檢驗(yàn)的基礎(chǔ)上通過Grange因果檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)、方差分解分析指出河北省的粗鋼產(chǎn)量同比增長(zhǎng)率與河北省地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值同比增長(zhǎng)率存在動(dòng)態(tài)關(guān)系,表明粗鋼產(chǎn)量同比增長(zhǎng)率對(duì)地區(qū)生產(chǎn)總值同比增長(zhǎng)率有影響,即“去產(chǎn)能”對(duì)河北省的經(jīng)濟(jì)增速有下拉作用,但隨著時(shí)間的推移,這種影響會(huì)減弱直到消失。最后,本文根據(jù)對(duì)近些年河北鋼鐵供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的不足以及河北鋼鐵供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革效應(yīng)綜合分析,提出深化河北鋼鐵供給側(cè)結(jié)構(gòu)性改革的對(duì)策建議。
[Abstract]:As the economy enters the new normal, combined with the expansion of steel capacity and shrinking demand, the problem of overcapacity in the steel industry has become increasingly prominent. Hebei Province is a big province of iron and steel, and the output of crude steel is the first in China for many years. In the face of such severe overcapacity situation, it is particularly important to study the overcapacity of iron and steel and the structural reform on the supply side of Hebei Province. This paper first analyzes the basic problems such as overcapacity and the definition of supply-side structural reform, and then expounds the present situation of iron and steel industry development and overcapacity in Hebei Province, the causes and types of overcapacity in Hebei Province. The effect of supply-side structural reform is analyzed in order to understand the overcapacity and supply-side structural reform of Hebei iron and steel in order to lay a solid foundation for deepening the suggestion of supply-side structural reform of Hebei iron and steel. Then this paper analyzes the effect of structural reform on the supply side of iron and steel in Hebei Province from two aspects: the influence of "deproductivity" on the utilization ratio of Hebei iron and steel production capacity and the effect of "deproductivity" on the economy of Hebei Province. Firstly, the paper analyzes the influence of reducing crude steel output on the utilization ratio of iron and steel capacity in Hebei Province by two hypotheses, and concludes that the utilization ratio of iron and steel capacity in Hebei Province will be improved in the end, no matter how the capacity utilization ratio changes at the beginning. Secondly, this paper analyzes the effect of "deproductivity" on the economy of Hebei Province, and uses econometrics eviews software to analyze the related indexes and establish the VAR model according to the time series. Based on the stability test of the model, Grange causality test, impulse response function and variance decomposition analysis show that there is a dynamic relationship between the annual growth rate of crude steel output in Hebei Province and the annual growth rate of gross domestic product in Hebei Province. This indicates that the annual growth rate of crude steel production has an impact on the regional GDP growth rate, that is, "deproductivity" has a pull-down effect on economic growth in Hebei Province, but over time the impact will weaken until it disappears. Finally, based on the analysis of the deficiency of the structural reform on the supply side of Hebei Iron and Steel in recent years and the comprehensive analysis of the effect of the structural reform on the supply side of the iron and steel in Hebei Province, this paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions for deepening the structural reform on the supply side
【學(xué)位授予單位】：河北大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號(hào)】：F426.31
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本文編號(hào)：1782051