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海洋油氣集輸容器失效事故樹分析與可靠性評價模型研究

發(fā)布時間:2018-03-28 15:33

  本文選題:海洋油氣集輸容器 切入點:事故樹 出處:《蘭州理工大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文


【摘要】:海洋油氣集輸壓力容器是將海上油田采出的產(chǎn)物進行收集和處理,并將其輸送上岸的全過程,是海洋油氣開采系統(tǒng)的重要部分。由于海洋油氣集輸壓力容器在長期服役過程中,會受材料、設(shè)計、制作、安裝、管理、腐蝕、和施工等原因影響而發(fā)生失效。輕者會造成經(jīng)濟損失和停產(chǎn)整頓,重者會導(dǎo)致泄漏、火災(zāi)、爆炸等重大事故,造成巨大經(jīng)濟損失、人員傷亡和環(huán)境污染等嚴重后果。對海洋油氣集輸壓力容器進行失效形式的事故樹評價分析,發(fā)現(xiàn)影響海洋油氣集輸壓力容器失效的主要風(fēng)險因素,明確油氣集輸系統(tǒng)薄弱環(huán)節(jié),進而針對性地提出及時有效的防護措施有重大意義。本文通過海洋油氣集輸壓力容器失效事故統(tǒng)計,對失效因素進行初步分析和分類;對海洋油氣集輸壓力容器系統(tǒng)進行深入分析,建立失效形式的事故樹模型,更深層次的分析研究導(dǎo)致海洋油氣集輸壓力容器失效的主要風(fēng)險因素;定性定量分析評價失效因素的風(fēng)險等級和重要度大小;運用道化學(xué)評價法進一步分析比較評價結(jié)果;根據(jù)安全評價結(jié)果和實際系統(tǒng)運行環(huán)境,針對性地提出有效預(yù)防和防護措施;建立系統(tǒng)可靠性評價模型,為系統(tǒng)可靠性評價分析建立有效的分析方法。本文主要對以下內(nèi)容進行了研究:首先,收集海洋油氣集輸壓力容器相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),對比國內(nèi)外海洋油氣集輸壓力容器失效事故統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù),分析影響海洋油氣集輸壓力容器失效風(fēng)險因素,其主要因素有:容器設(shè)計施工質(zhì)量,運行環(huán)境,腐蝕,第三方破壞,管理不善等。其次,建立海洋油氣集輸壓力容器失效形式的事故樹模型,運用事故樹評價法定性地評價海洋油氣集輸壓力容器系統(tǒng)失效因素,確定風(fēng)險因素的重要度。再次,結(jié)合事故樹分析軟件、統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)、模糊數(shù)學(xué)和專家打分法對基本事件概率進行運算,得出定量分析結(jié)果,確定主要風(fēng)險因素。進而,運用道化學(xué)評價法對海洋油氣集輸壓力容器系統(tǒng)進行分析,對比事故樹評價結(jié)果。針對兩次評價分析的結(jié)果,識別海洋油氣集輸壓力容器系統(tǒng)的主要風(fēng)險因素和運行過程的薄弱環(huán)節(jié),結(jié)合評價指標體系和實際系統(tǒng)運行環(huán)境,針對性地提出有效管理辦法和預(yù)防防護措施,為海洋平臺管理和安全生產(chǎn)提供理論支持,確保海洋平臺的安全生產(chǎn)。最后,為了更好的對系統(tǒng)進行分析研究,對系統(tǒng)可靠性進行分析評價研究,建立系統(tǒng)可靠性評價模型。對系統(tǒng)進行三方面的可靠性評價分析:安全可靠性評價分析、環(huán)境可靠性評價分析和經(jīng)濟可靠性評價分析。
[Abstract]:The offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessel is the whole process of collecting, processing and transporting offshore oil and gas production products, and it is an important part of the offshore oil and gas production system. Because the offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessel is in service for a long time, the offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessel is an important part of the offshore oil and gas production system. Failure will occur due to material, design, manufacture, installation, management, corrosion, and construction. The lighter will cause economic losses and shut down for rectification, while the heavy will cause major accidents such as leakage, fire, explosion, and cause huge economic losses. Serious consequences such as casualties and environmental pollution. The failure forms of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessels are evaluated and analyzed by accident tree, and the main risk factors affecting the failure of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessels are found. It is of great significance to identify the weak links of oil and gas gathering and transportation system and then put forward timely and effective protection measures. This paper makes a preliminary analysis and classification of failure factors through statistics of failure accidents of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessels. This paper deeply analyzes the pressure vessel system of offshore oil and gas gathering and transportation, establishes the failure form of accident tree model, and studies the main risk factors that lead to the failure of offshore oil and gas gathering and transportation pressure vessel. Qualitative and quantitative analysis of the risk level and importance of failure factors; further analysis and comparison of evaluation results by using channel chemistry evaluation method; according to the safety evaluation results and the actual operating environment of the system, The effective preventive and protective measures are put forward, the system reliability evaluation model is established, and the effective analysis method for the system reliability evaluation is established. The main contents of this paper are as follows: first, Collecting relevant data of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessels, comparing the statistical data of failure accidents of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessels at home and abroad, and analyzing the factors affecting the failure risk of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessels. The main factors are as follows: vessel design and construction quality, operation environment, corrosion, third party damage, mismanagement, etc. Secondly, an accident tree model of the failure form of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessel is established. The failure factors of offshore oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessel system are evaluated qualitatively by the method of accident tree evaluation, and the importance of risk factors is determined. Thirdly, combined with the accident tree analysis software, the statistical data are obtained. Fuzzy mathematics and expert scoring method are used to calculate the probability of basic events, the quantitative analysis results are obtained, and the main risk factors are determined. According to the results of the two evaluation and analysis, the main risk factors and weak links in the operation process of the marine oil and gas gathering and transporting pressure vessel system are identified, combined with the evaluation index system and the actual system operating environment. In order to provide theoretical support for offshore platform management and safety production, and ensure the safety of offshore platform production. Finally, in order to better analyze and study the system, The system reliability is analyzed and evaluated, and the system reliability evaluation model is established. The system is evaluated and analyzed in three aspects: safety reliability evaluation, environmental reliability evaluation and economic reliability evaluation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】:蘭州理工大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2016
【分類號】:TH49

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