本文選題：貨幣政策　切入點(diǎn)：人民幣匯率　出處：《云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：貨幣政策從實(shí)際匯率波動(dòng)的角度,來影響整個(gè)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì),被稱之為貨幣政策的匯率渠道。一國貨幣政策的執(zhí)行情況和匯率制度共同影響著一國宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的整體運(yùn)行。我國于2005年7月21日,由中國人民銀行發(fā)布消息,宣布關(guān)于匯率管理機(jī)制實(shí)施改革,實(shí)行以市場供求為基礎(chǔ)的、參考一籃子貨幣進(jìn)行調(diào)節(jié)、有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制[1]。這次的匯率改革主要內(nèi)容有:一是匯率將按照外匯市場的供求情況進(jìn)行浮動(dòng),可以體現(xiàn)匯率的價(jià)格信號作用;二是匯率可以根據(jù)對外貿(mào)易的平衡狀況來調(diào)節(jié)匯率浮動(dòng)的幅度,使得匯率機(jī)制更富有彈性;三是匯率將參考一籃子貨幣,一籃子貨幣包括美元、歐元、日元等,人民幣不再片面地釘住單一美元。此次的匯率制度改革可以保持人民幣幣值的基本穩(wěn)定,并使匯率逐步實(shí)現(xiàn)市場化,加大了匯率對國際收支和實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)的調(diào)節(jié)作用。這也標(biāo)志著我國的匯率管理機(jī)制走向彈性匯率體制。自2005年我國實(shí)行了匯率制度改革后,在新的管理浮動(dòng)匯率機(jī)制下,人民幣匯率能夠按照市場的供求關(guān)系進(jìn)行波動(dòng),我國對資本的管制越來越少,逐步轉(zhuǎn)變?yōu)樽杂闪鲃?dòng)的資本和有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制,這也有助于央行貨幣政策獨(dú)立性的提高。本文闡述了管理浮動(dòng)匯率對貨幣政策獨(dú)立性影響的理論過程,發(fā)現(xiàn)相比與固定匯率制,浮動(dòng)匯率能夠有效緩解外部沖擊,進(jìn)而增強(qiáng)貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性;但是過度的匯率波動(dòng)則會(huì)由經(jīng)常項(xiàng)目渠道和資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表渠道來影響宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)[2],從而削弱貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性。本論文通過結(jié)合國內(nèi)外匯率制度的相關(guān)理論和國際經(jīng)驗(yàn),運(yùn)用當(dāng)代主流的計(jì)量經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的研究方法,通過對1994年1月至2014年12月的經(jīng)濟(jì)月度數(shù)據(jù),進(jìn)行分階段的實(shí)證研究和對比分析,運(yùn)用統(tǒng)計(jì)方法,檢驗(yàn)相關(guān)變量之間的關(guān)系,了解中國貨幣政策的匯率傳導(dǎo)渠道的運(yùn)作過程和傳導(dǎo)效果,分析在不同的匯率管理機(jī)制下,中國的貨幣政策有效性是否得到了提高以及如何提高。不僅從匯率傳導(dǎo)的角度得出整體判斷,而且對完善我國貨幣政策有效性提出相應(yīng)的政策建議,期望進(jìn)一步推進(jìn)人民幣匯率制度改革,擴(kuò)大匯率彈性,完善匯率形成的市場機(jī)制,要穩(wěn)健的開放資本賬戶,提高貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性,調(diào)高對外匯市場風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的預(yù)防能力,同時(shí)需將匯率制度與其他政策制度配合使用等,這對于完善我國的金融市場和經(jīng)濟(jì)體制建設(shè),具有重要的理論意義和長遠(yuǎn)的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。
[Abstract]:Monetary policy affects the entire macro economy from the perspective of real exchange rate fluctuations. It is called the exchange rate channel of monetary policy. The implementation of a country's monetary policy and the exchange rate system jointly affect the overall operation of a country's macro economy. On July 21st 2005, the people's Bank of China issued the news. Announcing that the exchange rate management mechanism should be reformed and adjusted on the basis of market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies, There is a managed floating exchange rate system [1]. The main contents of this exchange rate reform are as follows: first, the exchange rate will float according to the supply and demand situation of the foreign exchange market, which can reflect the price signal function of the exchange rate; Second, the exchange rate can adjust the range of exchange rate fluctuations according to the balance of foreign trade, making the exchange rate mechanism more flexible; third, the exchange rate will refer to a basket of currencies, including the United States dollar, the euro, the yen, and so on. The RMB is no longer one-sided pegged to a single dollar. The current exchange rate regime reform can maintain the basic stability of the renminbi's currency value and make the exchange rate gradually market-oriented. It also indicates that China's exchange rate management mechanism has moved towards a flexible exchange rate system. Since 2005, China has implemented the exchange rate regime reform, and under the new floating exchange rate management mechanism, The RMB exchange rate can fluctuate according to the supply and demand of the market. Our country has less and less control over capital, and gradually changes to a free flow of capital and a managed floating exchange rate system. This paper expounds the theoretical process of managing the influence of floating exchange rate on the independence of monetary policy, and finds that compared with the fixed exchange rate system, floating exchange rate can effectively mitigate external shocks. Then strengthen the independence of monetary policy; However, excessive exchange rate fluctuations will affect macroeconomic by current account and balance sheet channels, thus weakening the independence of monetary policy. Using the econometrics research method of contemporary mainstream, through the economic monthly data from January 1994 to December 2014, carry on the stage empirical research and contrast analysis, use the statistical method, test the relation between the related variables. To understand the operational process and transmission effect of the exchange rate transmission channel of China's monetary policy, and to analyze the different exchange rate management mechanisms, Whether and how to improve the effectiveness of China's monetary policy. Not only from the point of view of exchange rate transmission, but also from the perspective of the overall judgment, and to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in China put forward corresponding policy recommendations. Looking forward to further promoting the reform of the RMB exchange rate system, expanding exchange rate flexibility, perfecting the market mechanism formed by the exchange rate, steadily opening the capital account, enhancing the independence of monetary policy, and increasing the ability to prevent foreign exchange market risks. At the same time, the exchange rate system and other policy systems should be used together, which has important theoretical and long-term practical significance for the improvement of our financial market and economic system construction.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F832.6;F822.0

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