本文選題：生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)集聚　切入點：制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級　出處：《浙江財經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：改革開放以來,中國制造業(yè)發(fā)展一直面臨著大而不強、競爭能力弱、要素投入與生產(chǎn)工藝低端鎖定的問題,制造業(yè)發(fā)展模式明顯滯后于經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平,亟待轉(zhuǎn)型升級。而生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)發(fā)展和集聚會促進制造業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型升級,主要體現(xiàn)在提高制造業(yè)的生產(chǎn)效率、優(yōu)化產(chǎn)業(yè)的內(nèi)部結(jié)構(gòu)、提高制造業(yè)環(huán)境友好型水平和社會服務(wù)型水平等方面。反過來,制造業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型升級也會在一定的程度上影響生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè),推動生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的的發(fā)展和集聚。本文結(jié)合新經(jīng)濟地理學(xué)、經(jīng)濟系統(tǒng)論、計量經(jīng)濟學(xué)和系統(tǒng)動力學(xué),首先,綜述生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)集聚與制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的相關(guān)理論及其互動效應(yīng)機理和目前的研究現(xiàn)狀;其次,用Krugman集中指數(shù)測度生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)集聚度,并將制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級分解為轉(zhuǎn)型和升級兩個部分,轉(zhuǎn)型包括環(huán)境友好型和社會服務(wù)型兩個方面,升級包括產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高級化和生產(chǎn)效率兩個方面,再利用時序全局主成分分析法將這四個方面的9個指標進行因子分析,得出制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級綜合指標,擬合分析制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級綜合指標與生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)集聚度;再次,構(gòu)建一個包括生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)集聚子系統(tǒng)、制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級子系統(tǒng)、制造業(yè)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)高級化子系統(tǒng)、制造業(yè)生產(chǎn)效率子系統(tǒng)、環(huán)境友好型子系統(tǒng)、社會服務(wù)型子系統(tǒng)的經(jīng)濟大系統(tǒng),對六個子系統(tǒng)的影響因素分別進行論述并提出假設(shè);復(fù)次,基于相關(guān)理論對六個子系統(tǒng)構(gòu)建計量模型,并對這六個子系統(tǒng)進行檢驗和估計,定量分析系統(tǒng)中的各個影響因素并給出相關(guān)結(jié)論;另外,基于系統(tǒng)動力學(xué)理論,構(gòu)建經(jīng)濟大系統(tǒng)的因果關(guān)系圖和系統(tǒng)流圖,運用計量結(jié)果對經(jīng)濟大系統(tǒng)方程式的系數(shù)進行賦值,然后仿真模擬生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)集聚和制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級之間的互動效應(yīng);最后,得出結(jié)論并提出相應(yīng)的政策建議。主要結(jié)論:(1)中國生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)集聚度總體上呈現(xiàn)穩(wěn)步上升趨勢,但具有明顯的地域差異,呈現(xiàn)沿海地區(qū)向西部內(nèi)陸地區(qū)遞減的趨勢,與地區(qū)經(jīng)濟發(fā)展水平呈正向弱相關(guān)關(guān)系。中國制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級綜合指標先平穩(wěn)波動后快速上升,呈現(xiàn)長三角、珠三角和京津冀三個地區(qū)帶頭發(fā)展,其他地區(qū)跟隨發(fā)展的趨勢。生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)集聚度和制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級綜合指標擬合程度高,發(fā)展趨勢較為一致,在一定程度上證明了生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)集聚與制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級之間存在正向關(guān)系。(2)隨著制造業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型升級,作為中間投入品的生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的需求量也會上升,因此制造業(yè)的轉(zhuǎn)型升級會帶動生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)的集聚;反過來,生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)集聚會使制造業(yè)的內(nèi)部分工更加專業(yè)化,會使制造業(yè)的交易成本下降,同時也會推動制造業(yè)技術(shù)創(chuàng)新和進步,進而推動制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型和升級。生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)集聚和制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級兩者形成一個正相關(guān)的互動系統(tǒng),而技術(shù)進步、創(chuàng)新投入、知識溢出和資本投入等因素是該系統(tǒng)的重要影響因素。(3)構(gòu)建系統(tǒng)仿真模型,仿真模擬2003-2014年生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)集聚度與制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級綜合指標之間的互動效應(yīng),模擬結(jié)果與實際值擬合度高。調(diào)整模型方程任意一個外生變量的系數(shù),都會導(dǎo)致生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)集聚度和制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級綜合指標的改變,再一次證明生產(chǎn)性服務(wù)業(yè)集聚和制造業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級存在互動。
[Abstract]:Since the reform and opening up, Chinese manufacturing industry has been facing a big but not strong, weak competition ability, input factors and production process of low-end locking problems, development model of manufacturing industry lags behind the level of economic development, urgent need to upgrade. And the development of producer services agglomeration will promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry, mainly reflected in to improve the manufacturing efficiency, optimize the internal structure of industry, improve manufacturing environment friendly level and social service level. In turn, the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry will also affect the production service industry to a certain extent, promote the development of producer service industry agglomeration and combining with the new economic geography. Economy, system theory, econometrics and system dynamics, firstly, summarizes the theories of producer service industry and manufacturing industry transformation and its interaction mechanism and current research Secondly, using Krugman; centralized production service industry index to measure the agglomeration degree, and the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading is divided into two parts, two aspects including the transformation of environmental friendly and social service, the upgrade includes two aspects: the advanced industrial structure and production efficiency, and then use the timing of global principal component analysis the 9 indexes of these four aspects to carry on the factor analysis, the comprehensive index of manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading, the fitting analysis of the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry and the comprehensive index of producer services agglomeration; thirdly, to build a cluster of productive service industry system, upgrade system transformation of the manufacturing industry, the manufacturing industry structure system, manufacturing efficiency subsystem, environment friendly subsystem, economic system of social service system, the influencing factors of the six subsystems are discussed and put forward the false Then, related theory; econometric model of the six subsystems and based on test and estimation of the six subsystems, the quantitative analysis of the impact of various factors in the system and gives the relevant conclusions; in addition, based on system dynamics theory, flow diagram causality diagram and system construction and economic system, the assignment of measurement results coefficient of economic system equation, the interaction effect and Simulation of producer service industry and manufacturing industry transformation and upgrading; finally, draw conclusions and put forward the corresponding policy suggestions. The main conclusions: (1) overall showing a steady upward trend Chinese producer service industry, but has obvious geographical differences. Showing diminishing coastal areas to inland areas in the western trend, and the level of regional economic development positively to the weak correlation. China transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry comprehensive index to smooth fluctuations The rapid rise, has led the development of the Yangtze River Delta, the three regions in the Pearl River Delta and Beijing Tianjin Hebei, follow the development of other areas. The trend and the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing index high fitting degree of producer service industry, the development trend is the same, to a certain extent that productive service industry agglomeration and transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry there is a positive relationship. (2) with the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry, as the intermediate inputs of the productive service industry demand will rise, thus the transformation and upgrading of the manufacturing industry will drive the agglomeration of producer services; in turn, the productive service industry in the manufacturing industry of the internal division of Labor Party more professional that will make the transaction cost in the manufacturing sector dropped, will also promote the manufacturing technology innovation and progress, and promote the transformation and upgrading of manufacturing industry. Producer service industry and manufacturing industry to upgrade their formation A positive interaction system, and technological progress, innovation, knowledge spillover and capital investment are important factors affecting the system. (3) build system simulation model, simulation of 2003-2014 years of production service industry agglomeration and industry transformation and upgrading of the interactive effect between the comprehensive index, the simulation results and the actual value high degree of fitting. The adjusted coefficient model equation of any exogenous variables, will lead to agglomeration of producer services and manufacturing industry to upgrade the comprehensive index change, once again proved that the producer service industry and manufacturing industry there is an interactive upgrade.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江財經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F719;F424

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