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萬州區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評價與管理研究

發(fā)布時間:2018-03-05 23:27

  本文選題:三峽庫區(qū) 切入點:滑坡 出處:《中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)》2017年博士論文 論文類型:學(xué)位論文


【摘要】:地質(zhì)環(huán)境的復(fù)雜性、地質(zhì)災(zāi)害發(fā)生機理的時空差異性和不確定性,使得現(xiàn)有的理論水平和技術(shù)方法還很難實現(xiàn)對突發(fā)性地質(zhì)災(zāi)害發(fā)生時間、發(fā)生地點、發(fā)生規(guī)模及影響范圍的準(zhǔn)確預(yù)測,從而難以保障地質(zhì)災(zāi)害突發(fā)區(qū)人民財產(chǎn)及生命安全。因此,在現(xiàn)有地質(zhì)災(zāi)害研究成果背景下,亟需尋找開展地質(zhì)災(zāi)害災(zāi)前決策的有效途徑和手段,開展地質(zhì)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評價和管理對策研究對真正實現(xiàn)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害減防控治具有重要意義。萬州區(qū)目前是重慶市第二大城市,也是三峽庫區(qū)的腹心。滑坡災(zāi)害是該區(qū)最主要的地質(zhì)災(zāi)害災(zāi)種。近年來,隨著三峽指揮部防治中心、萬州區(qū)國土局、萬州區(qū)地方鄉(xiāng)鎮(zhèn)辦公室等多層級部門的相互配合和努力,萬州區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理體系雖已初具規(guī)模,但仍面臨災(zāi)害預(yù)測難、管理對策不完善等問題。因此,論文以滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評價與管理為主題,在系統(tǒng)分析國內(nèi)外滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評價與管理的研究現(xiàn)狀以及總結(jié)前人研究成果的基礎(chǔ)上,以重慶市萬州區(qū)為范本,從區(qū)域和單體兩個尺度研究滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評價和風(fēng)險管理對策。論文的研究成果將對萬州區(qū)以及中國其他區(qū)域地質(zhì)災(zāi)害減災(zāi)防治管理工作起到積極的指導(dǎo)作用,具有重要的理論和實際意義。論文從國內(nèi)外滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評價和滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理的研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行了總結(jié),指出了目前研究中存在的問題;從自然地理、氣象水文、地形地貌、地層巖性、地質(zhì)構(gòu)造、新構(gòu)造運動、水文地質(zhì)及萬州區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害發(fā)育及分布特征八個方面系統(tǒng)分析了萬州區(qū)的區(qū)域地質(zhì)環(huán)境背景;按照區(qū)域滑坡風(fēng)險評價的基本流程,介紹了滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評價指標(biāo)的選擇與分析、滑坡災(zāi)害易發(fā)性分析、滑坡災(zāi)害危險性分析、滑坡災(zāi)害易損性分析、滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險分析及滑坡災(zāi)害可接受準(zhǔn)則六個環(huán)節(jié)的技術(shù)方法;以萬州區(qū)為例,利用三種易發(fā)性分析模型開展了三種不同降雨工況下的滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險區(qū)劃,并基于前人滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險可接受準(zhǔn)則的研究成果評價了該區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險的可接受程度;以塘角1號滑坡為例,在滑坡穩(wěn)定性分區(qū)的基礎(chǔ)上,開展了四種不同庫水位降雨組合工況下的滑坡破壞概率計算,并基于最危險工況開展了滑坡及其次生涌浪災(zāi)害風(fēng)險分析與評價;系統(tǒng)分析了萬州區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理現(xiàn)狀,總結(jié)了我國地質(zhì)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理主要手段,繼而從萬州全區(qū)和單體滑坡災(zāi)害兩個尺度提出萬州區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理對策的建議。論文在考慮不同強度降雨誘發(fā)滑坡的時間概率,探討基于工況的區(qū)域滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險動態(tài)評價方法,針對三峽庫區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險特點,探討單體滑坡及其次生涌浪災(zāi)害的風(fēng)險評價方法,有針對性的提出區(qū)域和單體兩種尺度的滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理對策方面具有一定的創(chuàng)新性。論文取得的主要研究成果如下:(1)總結(jié)了目前滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評價與管理研究中存在的主要問題。通過分析前人的研究成果,從區(qū)域滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評價、單體滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評價和滑坡次生災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評價三個方面總結(jié)了目前滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評價研究中存在的問題,這些問題主要集中在研究的精細(xì)化、定量化和標(biāo)準(zhǔn)化不足等方面;同時從技術(shù)方法、應(yīng)用對象等方面提出了目前滑坡風(fēng)險管理中存在的問題,例如:風(fēng)險可接受標(biāo)準(zhǔn)難以確定等。(2)總結(jié)了萬州區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害的發(fā)育及分布特征。通過分析萬州區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害歷史編錄資料及相關(guān)地質(zhì)、氣象基礎(chǔ)資料,得到萬州區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害發(fā)育及分布特征。萬州區(qū)以土質(zhì)滑坡為主,滑坡規(guī)模主要為中型,平面形態(tài)上多發(fā)育為箕形,剖面上多發(fā)育為凸形和階梯形;禄w物質(zhì)主要來源于第四系崩坡積、沖洪積和殘坡積物,其中,土質(zhì)滑坡滑體物質(zhì)主要為粉質(zhì)粘土夾碎塊石,巖質(zhì)滑坡滑體物質(zhì)主要為砂巖或泥巖、砂巖互層;滑帶主要發(fā)育在構(gòu)造上的軟弱結(jié)構(gòu)面和砂泥巖接觸面中;滑床主要發(fā)育在侏羅系中統(tǒng)上沙溪廟組(J2s)地層上。此外,該區(qū)滑坡變形破壞機制以漸進(jìn)式破壞為主。此外,得到萬州區(qū)滑坡在空間上具有沿長江及其支流水系呈條帶狀分布、沿斜坡高程呈垂直分帶分布、依附區(qū)域背斜兩翼順向坡地區(qū)及城市建設(shè)區(qū)集中分布的特點。在時間上,滑坡發(fā)生主要集中在2003年三峽庫區(qū)提高庫水位以后,且尤以2003年至2007年145-156m水位期間更為集中;同時,還集中在6、7、8月份,5月份和9、10月份次之。(3)分析并評價了萬州區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險。按照區(qū)域滑坡風(fēng)險分析及評價的流程,通過萬州區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害易發(fā)性分析、危險性分析、承災(zāi)體易損性分析以及承災(zāi)體經(jīng)濟(jì)價值和人員數(shù)量估算等環(huán)節(jié),獲得萬州區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害人口和經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險區(qū)劃圖,并基于前人提出的滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險可接受標(biāo)準(zhǔn),獲得萬州區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險可接受程度分布圖。其中,滑坡災(zāi)害易發(fā)性是在滑坡災(zāi)害易發(fā)性評價指標(biāo)篩選和分級的基礎(chǔ)上,選擇邏輯回歸模型、支持向量機模型、決策樹模型三種數(shù)理統(tǒng)計模型對比分析獲得;滑坡災(zāi)害危險性分析中滑坡發(fā)生時間概率將通過三種不同工況下的降雨重現(xiàn)期分析獲得;承災(zāi)體易損性將基于統(tǒng)計資料分析,通過半定量的方式確定。經(jīng)計算,萬州區(qū)風(fēng)險等級較高的區(qū)域主要集中在萬州主城區(qū),且沿河流水系呈帶狀分布的特征,高程較高的區(qū)域風(fēng)險等級較低。萬州區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險和人口風(fēng)險最大的工況為日降雨量50mm工況。在不考慮萬州區(qū)治理工程的情況下,該區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害年經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險總體為不可接受,年人口風(fēng)險達(dá)到可接受-可容忍范圍。(4)分析并評價了塘角1號滑坡及其次生涌浪災(zāi)害風(fēng)險。論文基于塘角1號滑坡位移監(jiān)測資料分析,開展滑坡穩(wěn)定性分區(qū),選擇典型計算剖面;結(jié)合庫水位與滑坡變形監(jiān)測數(shù)據(jù)分析,確定了4種庫水位降雨組合計算工況,模擬各分區(qū)地下水位,并計算破壞概率;基于破壞概率計算結(jié)果,確定最危險工況,并確定該工況下,塘角1號滑坡可能的入江范圍,計算涌浪高度,確定涌浪災(zāi)害影響范圍;結(jié)合塘角1號滑坡及其涌浪災(zāi)害影響范圍內(nèi)承災(zāi)體易損性分析和價值估算,獲得最危險工況下塘角1號滑坡及其涌浪災(zāi)害經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險和人口風(fēng)險分布圖。經(jīng)計算,最危險工況下,塘角1號滑坡風(fēng)險最大區(qū)域主要集中在前緣中部,塘角1號滑坡年經(jīng)濟(jì)風(fēng)險和年人員傷亡風(fēng)險均達(dá)到可接受水平。(5)提出了萬州區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理對策建議。從基本概念和工作流程兩方面介紹了我國地質(zhì)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理的主要手段,即:地質(zhì)災(zāi)害群測群防和滑坡災(zāi)害應(yīng)急響應(yīng),指出了目前兩種手段存在的主要問題。通過萬州區(qū)資料收集調(diào)查,從萬州區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理實踐方面,系統(tǒng)分析了萬州區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理的現(xiàn)狀,指出萬州區(qū)地質(zhì)災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理存在的問題。結(jié)合萬州區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險評價成果,從全區(qū)的角度提出了滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險管理對策,包括:加強全區(qū)滑坡災(zāi)害點調(diào)查和監(jiān)測工作、完善滑坡災(zāi)害應(yīng)急預(yù)案、加強專業(yè)技術(shù)人員培訓(xùn)、優(yōu)化各職能部門的組織結(jié)構(gòu)及協(xié)助模式、建設(shè)風(fēng)險動態(tài)管理系統(tǒng)、加大滑坡災(zāi)害風(fēng)險控制投入、優(yōu)化城市建設(shè)規(guī)劃方案以及加強公眾的教育活動和公共信息服務(wù)等。結(jié)合塘角1號滑坡風(fēng)險評價成果,從單體的角度,提出了單體滑坡風(fēng)險管理對策,包括:加強監(jiān)測系統(tǒng)建設(shè),提高滑坡及其次生涌浪災(zāi)害應(yīng)急響應(yīng)能力。
[Abstract]:The complexity of geological environment, geological disaster occurrence mechanism of spatial difference and uncertainty, which makes the theoretical level and the current method is difficult to realize the time of occurrence of unexpected geological disasters occurred, accurately predict the scale and influence scope, it is difficult to guarantee the people's property and life safety of sudden geological disasters. Therefore, in the existing research results of geological disaster background, need to find effective ways to carry out geological disaster disaster before the decision and the means to carry out geological disaster risk assessment and management countermeasures to realize geological disaster reduction has important significance to the prevention and control treatment. Wanzhou district is the second largest city in Chongqing, is the center of the Three Gorges Reservoir area. The landslide disaster is the area of the main geological disaster prevention center. In recent years, with the Three Gorges headquarters, Wanzhou District Land Bureau, Wanzhou district local township office. Cooperate with each other and effort level departments, the risk management system of Wanzhou geological disaster has taken shape, but still faces the disaster prediction difficult, management is imperfect. Therefore, based on the risk assessment and management of landslide disaster as the theme, based on systematic analysis of the domestic and foreign research status and management of landslide disaster risk assessment and summary the results of previous studies, in Wanzhou District of Chongqing city as the sample, and two single from the regional landslide scale of risk assessment and risk management measures. The research results of Wanzhou district and its regional China he geological hazards prevention and management work has played an active role in guiding, has important theoretical and practical the significance. This paper from the domestic and foreign research status of landslide disaster risk assessment and risk management of landslide hazard are summarized, and points out the existing problems in the current study; from Natural geography, meteorology and hydrology, topography, lithology, geological structure, neotectonic movement, the development of landslide hydrology geology and the District of Wanzhou and the distribution of the eight aspects of the analysis of regional environmental geology in Wanzhou area; according to the basic flow of regional landslide risk assessment, introduces the selection and analysis of landslide disaster risk evaluation index the analysis of landslide susceptibility, hazard analysis of landslide, landslide disaster vulnerability analysis and risk analysis of landslide hazard and landslide acceptable method criterion of six aspects; taking Wanzhou district as an example, using three kinds of susceptibility analysis model to the three kinds of landslide under the condition of different rainfall risk division, and the results of previous studies of landslide disaster risk acceptance criterion based on the evaluation of the acceptability of the landslide disaster risk; to Tangjiao No. 1 Landslide as an example, the stability of landslide The basis, carried out four different water level rainfall combined conditions of landslide failure probability calculation, and based on the most dangerous condition is carried out and the secondary landslide surge hazard risk analysis and evaluation system; analysis of the current situation of geological disaster risk management in Wanzhou, summarizes the main methods of geological disaster risk management in China, and then from Wanzhou and the single landslide two scale proposed countermeasures for Wanzhou District landslide disaster risk management. In this paper considering the different intensity of rainfall induced landslide time probability of dynamic regional landslide disaster risk assessment method based on working condition, the landslide hazard risk characteristics of the Three Gorges Reservoir area, the risk assessment of single landslide surge and secondary disasters method there is, has certain innovation in this area and two single scale landslide disaster risk management strategies. The paper take The main research achievements are as follows: (1) summarizes the main problems existing in the research and management of landslide hazard and risk assessment. Through the analysis of previous research results, from the evaluation of landslide hazard risk, disaster risk assessment and the secondary disasters of landslide risk assessment in three aspects summarizes the present research of landslide hazard and risk assessment of the problem single landslide fine, these problems are mainly concentrated in the research, quantification and standardization issues; at the same time from the technical method, put forward the existing landslide risk management problems in the application object, for example: it is difficult to determine the risk acceptance criteria. (2) summarizes the development and distribution of landslide disaster Wanzhou District Wanzhou district. Through the analysis of landslide disaster history and geological logging data, meteorological data base, get the landslide in Wanzhou district development and distribution characteristics in Wanzhou district. Soil landslide, landslide scale mainly for the medium, on the plane form developed listric profile, developed into a convex shape and a ladder. Landslide body material is mainly derived from Quaternary colluvial, alluvial and residual slope sediments, the soil landslide Landslide material is mainly silty clay clip fragments of stone, landslide material is mainly sandstone or mudstone interbedded sandstone rock landslide; sliding zone mainly develops in the structure of the weak structural surface and sand mudstone contact surface; the sliding bed is mainly developed in the Jurassic Shaxi Temple group (J2s) on the ground. In addition, the sliding slope based deformation mechanism with the gradual failure. In addition, Wanzhou landslide in space has banded distribution along the Yangtze River and its tributaries, the vertical zonal distribution along the slope height, attachment area anticline, slope area and city characteristics along the construction area concentrated in time, After the landslide mainly improve the reservoir water level of Three Gorges Reservoir Area in 2003, and especially during the period from 2003 to 2007, the 145-156m level is more concentrated; at the same time, also concentrated in 6,7,8 months, 9,10 months in May and the second. (3) analysis and evaluation of the landslide disaster in Wanzhou area. According to the risk analysis and evaluation of landslide risk areas of the process and through the Wanzhou landslide susceptibility analysis, risk analysis, the analysis of the vulnerability of disaster bearing body and economic value and estimating the number of personnel and other aspects, Wanzhou district population and economic landslide disaster risk zoning map, and based on the previous landslide disaster to the risk acceptance criteria, obtain the landslide in Wanzhou area acceptable risk degree distribution. Among them, the landslide disaster is the basis of the susceptibility evaluation index selection and classification in the landslide disaster, choose the logistic regression model, SVM model, decision tree The analysis model of three kinds of statistical models were compared; the occurrence time of probability will pass under the three different conditions of rainfall return period analysis of landslide hazard analysis of landslide; bearing analysis of vulnerability based on statistical data, determined by semi quantitative method. After calculation, Wanzhou district risk areas are mainly high grade concentrated in the main urban area of Wanzhou, and along the rivers. The zonal distribution features, regional risk level is low. The high altitude condition in Wanzhou District landslide disaster economic risk and population risk for 50mm maximum daily rainfall conditions. Without considering the Wanzhou district governance project under the condition of the landslide disaster risk for overall economic the acceptable year, population risk acceptable - tolerable range. (4) analysis and evaluation of the Tangjiao No. 1 landslide surge and secondary disaster risk. The Tangjiao No. 1 Landslide Displacement Monitoring Based on measured data Material analysis, landslide stability zoning, typical calculation section; monitoring data analysis combined with the reservoir water level and the landslide deformation conditions was determined to calculate the 4 kinds of reservoir water level rainfall combination, simulation of underground water level of each partition, and calculate failure probability; failure probability calculation based on the results, to determine the most dangerous conditions, and to determine the conditions into the river the range of possible Tangjiao No. 1 landslide, surge height calculation, determine the scope of influence of surge disaster; combined with the influence range of Tangjiao No. 1 Landslide and its surge in disaster disaster vulnerability analysis and evaluation, to obtain the most dangerous conditions Tangjiao No. 1 landslide and its surge disaster economic risk and risk distribution of the population by chart. Calculation of the most dangerous conditions, Tangjiao No. 1 landslide risk areas are mainly concentrated in the central front, Tangjiao No. 1 Landslide year economic risk and risk years casualties reached acceptable levels. (5) proposed 000 State of landslide disaster risk management countermeasures. From the two aspects of the basic concepts and work flow of the main means of management of geological disaster risk in China: the monitoring and prevention of geological disasters and landslides disaster emergency response, points out the main problems at present two methods exist. Through collecting survey data of Wanzhou District, from the geological disaster Wanzhou district risk management practices, analyzed the status quo of Wanzhou geological disaster risk management, points out the existing Wanzhou geological disaster risk management. Combined with the evaluation of Wanzhou landslide disaster risk results, proposed landslide disaster risk management strategies, from the perspective of the region include: strengthening the landslide investigation and monitoring work, improve the landslide disaster emergency plan, strengthen the training of professional technical personnel, optimize the organizational structure and assist mode of functional departments, construction of dynamic risk management system, increase the Landslide risk control input, optimization planning of city construction and strengthen the public education and public information service. Combined with the Tangjiao No. 1 landslide risk assessment results, from a single point of view, put forward the single landslide risk management measures, including: strengthening the monitoring system construction, improve the landslide and secondary surge disaster emergency response capability.

【學(xué)位授予單位】:中國地質(zhì)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】:博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】:2017
【分類號】:P642.22

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