本文關(guān)鍵詞： 經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng) 勞動(dòng)力質(zhì)量 勞動(dòng)力數(shù)量　出處：《江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2016年碩士論文　論文類(lèi)型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：伴隨中國(guó)人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)變化而來(lái)的人口紅利衰減、剩余勞動(dòng)力在產(chǎn)業(yè)與區(qū)域間轉(zhuǎn)移而致工資差距的縮小和勞動(dòng)力成本的大幅上升、國(guó)際需求萎縮、貿(mào)易保護(hù)日趨明顯等經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的變化,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)在經(jīng)歷30多年持續(xù)高速發(fā)展后似乎已邁入減速通道,增速?gòu)倪^(guò)去的近10%不斷下降到2015年的6.9%。由結(jié)構(gòu)性增速階段向結(jié)構(gòu)性減速階段轉(zhuǎn)變符合世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展一般規(guī)律,也為當(dāng)前中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的可持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)提出了挑戰(zhàn)和機(jī)遇。本文認(rèn)為,盡管減速趨勢(shì)已不可避免,但減速背景下中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)實(shí)現(xiàn)中高速增長(zhǎng)的潛能依舊巨大。本文意圖從勞動(dòng)力結(jié)構(gòu)的角度出發(fā),探究促進(jìn)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)增長(zhǎng)的勞動(dòng)力結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化途徑和對(duì)策。首先,本文對(duì)世界主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體和中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng)歷程進(jìn)行分析,以便對(duì)中國(guó)當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段進(jìn)行基本判斷。本文先對(duì)世界上主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體進(jìn)行分析發(fā)現(xiàn),無(wú)論是發(fā)達(dá)國(guó)家還是新興經(jīng)濟(jì)體,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)都會(huì)經(jīng)歷一個(gè)從加速到減速的過(guò)程,這似乎是世界經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的一般事實(shí)。然后從中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的實(shí)際國(guó)情出發(fā),分析中國(guó)1978-2014年人均GDP后發(fā)現(xiàn),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)具有明顯的周期性,但是通過(guò)移動(dòng)平均趨勢(shì)線,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)人均GDP出現(xiàn)一個(gè)明顯的下降趨勢(shì)。由此本文認(rèn)為中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)似乎已進(jìn)入減速通道,中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展階段從高速向中高速過(guò)渡。其次,從勞動(dòng)力結(jié)構(gòu)的兩個(gè)維度對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)分別進(jìn)行統(tǒng)計(jì)分析和實(shí)證分析。本文將勞動(dòng)力的數(shù)量細(xì)分為勞動(dòng)力就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、勞動(dòng)力城鄉(xiāng)結(jié)構(gòu)和勞動(dòng)力年齡結(jié)構(gòu),以人力資本指代勞動(dòng)力的質(zhì)量。通過(guò)對(duì)勞動(dòng)力就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析發(fā)現(xiàn),作為勞動(dòng)力就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)替代變量的結(jié)構(gòu)偏離度指標(biāo)普遍較大,嚴(yán)重滯后于產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)的調(diào)整,說(shuō)明勞動(dòng)力就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)及時(shí)有效調(diào)整,使資源配置更為有效,對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有益。選取2000-2013年中國(guó)省際相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)作為樣本建立模型并進(jìn)行面板回歸分析。對(duì)人口撫養(yǎng)比和人力資本對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的研究發(fā)現(xiàn),勞動(dòng)力結(jié)構(gòu)數(shù)量中的年齡結(jié)構(gòu)和勞動(dòng)力質(zhì)量與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)有顯著的相關(guān)關(guān)系,其中人口撫養(yǎng)比與經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是顯著負(fù)相關(guān),人力資本對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是顯著正相關(guān)。另外,通過(guò)逐一帶入控制變量后發(fā)現(xiàn),有些控制變量對(duì)解釋變量具有明顯的約束力,而有些則不顯著。最后,根據(jù)文章的分析和結(jié)合我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的減速背景提出促進(jìn)勞動(dòng)力結(jié)構(gòu)優(yōu)化的對(duì)策建議。例如:加快勞動(dòng)力就業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)和產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展;提高城鎮(zhèn)化水平;深化人口政策改革;加大教育投資力度。
[Abstract]:With the decline of the demographic dividend due to the changes in the age structure of China's population, the shift of surplus labor force between industries and regions has resulted in the narrowing of the wage gap and the sharp rise in labour costs, resulting in the shrinking of international demand. After more than 30 years of sustained and rapid economic development, China's economy seems to have entered the deceleration channel after more than 30 years of sustained rapid economic development, due to the increasingly obvious changes in the economic environment such as trade protection. The growth rate has been declining from nearly 10% in the past to 6.9 in 2015. The transition from the structural growth stage to the structural deceleration stage is in line with the general law of world economic development, and also presents challenges and opportunities for the sustainable growth of China's economy at present. Although the trend of deceleration is inevitable, the potential of Chinese economy to achieve high speed growth in the context of deceleration is still enormous. This paper intends to proceed from the point of view of the structure of labor force. First of all, this paper analyzes the growth course of the world's major economies and China's economy. In order to make a basic judgment on the current stage of China's economic development, this paper first analyzes the major economies in the world and finds that, whether developed or emerging economies, economic growth will undergo a process from acceleration to deceleration. This seems to be a general fact of world economic development. Then, starting from the actual situation of China's economy, and analyzing China's per capita GDP from 1978 to 2014, it is found that China's economic growth has obvious periodicity, but through moving average trend line, We find that there is an obvious downward trend in per capita GDP. Therefore, this paper thinks that China's economic growth seems to have entered the deceleration channel, and the stage of Chinese economic development is from high speed to middle high speed. Secondly, From the two dimensions of labor force structure, this paper makes statistical analysis and empirical analysis on China's economic growth. This paper divides the quantity of labor force into the structure of labor force employment, the structure of labor force between urban and rural areas and the age structure of labor force. Human capital refers to the quality of labor force. Through the statistical analysis of the employment structure of labor force, it is found that the index of structural deviation, which is the substitute variable of employment structure of labor force, is generally larger and lags behind the adjustment of industrial structure seriously. It shows that the employment structure of the labor force is adjusted in a timely and effective manner to make the allocation of resources more effective. It is beneficial to the economic growth. Taking the relevant data of China inter-provincial from 2000 to 2013 as the sample to establish the model and carry on the panel regression analysis. The study of the population dependency ratio and human capital on the economic growth found, There is a significant correlation between age structure and quality of labor force structure and economic growth, in which the dependency ratio of population is negatively correlated with economic growth, and human capital is significantly and positively related to economic growth. By bringing in the control variables one by one, we find that some of the control variables are obviously binding on the explanatory variables, while some are not. According to the analysis of the article and the background of deceleration of China's economic growth, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the optimization of labor force structure, such as accelerating the coordinated development of employment structure and industrial structure of labor force, raising the level of urbanization, deepening the reform of population policy; We will increase investment in education.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：江西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F249.2

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