本文關鍵詞： 經(jīng)濟增長 勞動力質量 勞動力數(shù)量　出處：《江西財經(jīng)大學》2016年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：伴隨中國人口年齡結構變化而來的人口紅利衰減、剩余勞動力在產(chǎn)業(yè)與區(qū)域間轉移而致工資差距的縮小和勞動力成本的大幅上升、國際需求萎縮、貿(mào)易保護日趨明顯等經(jīng)濟環(huán)境的變化,中國經(jīng)濟在經(jīng)歷30多年持續(xù)高速發(fā)展后似乎已邁入減速通道,增速從過去的近10%不斷下降到2015年的6.9%。由結構性增速階段向結構性減速階段轉變符合世界經(jīng)濟發(fā)展一般規(guī)律,也為當前中國經(jīng)濟的可持續(xù)增長提出了挑戰(zhàn)和機遇。本文認為,盡管減速趨勢已不可避免,但減速背景下中國經(jīng)濟實現(xiàn)中高速增長的潛能依舊巨大。本文意圖從勞動力結構的角度出發(fā),探究促進中國經(jīng)濟持續(xù)增長的勞動力結構優(yōu)化途徑和對策。首先,本文對世界主要經(jīng)濟體和中國經(jīng)濟的增長歷程進行分析,以便對中國當前經(jīng)濟發(fā)展階段進行基本判斷。本文先對世界上主要經(jīng)濟體進行分析發(fā)現(xiàn),無論是發(fā)達國家還是新興經(jīng)濟體,經(jīng)濟增長都會經(jīng)歷一個從加速到減速的過程,這似乎是世界經(jīng)濟發(fā)展的一般事實。然后從中國經(jīng)濟的實際國情出發(fā),分析中國1978-2014年人均GDP后發(fā)現(xiàn),中國經(jīng)濟增長具有明顯的周期性,但是通過移動平均趨勢線,我們發(fā)現(xiàn)人均GDP出現(xiàn)一個明顯的下降趨勢。由此本文認為中國經(jīng)濟增長似乎已進入減速通道,中國經(jīng)濟發(fā)展階段從高速向中高速過渡。其次,從勞動力結構的兩個維度對中國經(jīng)濟增長分別進行統(tǒng)計分析和實證分析。本文將勞動力的數(shù)量細分為勞動力就業(yè)結構、勞動力城鄉(xiāng)結構和勞動力年齡結構,以人力資本指代勞動力的質量。通過對勞動力就業(yè)結構的統(tǒng)計分析發(fā)現(xiàn),作為勞動力就業(yè)結構替代變量的結構偏離度指標普遍較大,嚴重滯后于產(chǎn)業(yè)結構的調(diào)整,說明勞動力就業(yè)結構及時有效調(diào)整,使資源配置更為有效,對經(jīng)濟增長有益。選取2000-2013年中國省際相關數(shù)據(jù)作為樣本建立模型并進行面板回歸分析。對人口撫養(yǎng)比和人力資本對經(jīng)濟增長的研究發(fā)現(xiàn),勞動力結構數(shù)量中的年齡結構和勞動力質量與經(jīng)濟增長有顯著的相關關系,其中人口撫養(yǎng)比與經(jīng)濟增長是顯著負相關,人力資本對經(jīng)濟增長是顯著正相關。另外,通過逐一帶入控制變量后發(fā)現(xiàn),有些控制變量對解釋變量具有明顯的約束力,而有些則不顯著。最后,根據(jù)文章的分析和結合我國經(jīng)濟增長的減速背景提出促進勞動力結構優(yōu)化的對策建議。例如:加快勞動力就業(yè)結構和產(chǎn)業(yè)結構協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展;提高城鎮(zhèn)化水平;深化人口政策改革;加大教育投資力度。
[Abstract]:With the decline of the demographic dividend due to the changes in the age structure of China's population, the shift of surplus labor force between industries and regions has resulted in the narrowing of the wage gap and the sharp rise in labour costs, resulting in the shrinking of international demand. After more than 30 years of sustained and rapid economic development, China's economy seems to have entered the deceleration channel after more than 30 years of sustained rapid economic development, due to the increasingly obvious changes in the economic environment such as trade protection. The growth rate has been declining from nearly 10% in the past to 6.9 in 2015. The transition from the structural growth stage to the structural deceleration stage is in line with the general law of world economic development, and also presents challenges and opportunities for the sustainable growth of China's economy at present. Although the trend of deceleration is inevitable, the potential of Chinese economy to achieve high speed growth in the context of deceleration is still enormous. This paper intends to proceed from the point of view of the structure of labor force. First of all, this paper analyzes the growth course of the world's major economies and China's economy. In order to make a basic judgment on the current stage of China's economic development, this paper first analyzes the major economies in the world and finds that, whether developed or emerging economies, economic growth will undergo a process from acceleration to deceleration. This seems to be a general fact of world economic development. Then, starting from the actual situation of China's economy, and analyzing China's per capita GDP from 1978 to 2014, it is found that China's economic growth has obvious periodicity, but through moving average trend line, We find that there is an obvious downward trend in per capita GDP. Therefore, this paper thinks that China's economic growth seems to have entered the deceleration channel, and the stage of Chinese economic development is from high speed to middle high speed. Secondly, From the two dimensions of labor force structure, this paper makes statistical analysis and empirical analysis on China's economic growth. This paper divides the quantity of labor force into the structure of labor force employment, the structure of labor force between urban and rural areas and the age structure of labor force. Human capital refers to the quality of labor force. Through the statistical analysis of the employment structure of labor force, it is found that the index of structural deviation, which is the substitute variable of employment structure of labor force, is generally larger and lags behind the adjustment of industrial structure seriously. It shows that the employment structure of the labor force is adjusted in a timely and effective manner to make the allocation of resources more effective. It is beneficial to the economic growth. Taking the relevant data of China inter-provincial from 2000 to 2013 as the sample to establish the model and carry on the panel regression analysis. The study of the population dependency ratio and human capital on the economic growth found, There is a significant correlation between age structure and quality of labor force structure and economic growth, in which the dependency ratio of population is negatively correlated with economic growth, and human capital is significantly and positively related to economic growth. By bringing in the control variables one by one, we find that some of the control variables are obviously binding on the explanatory variables, while some are not. According to the analysis of the article and the background of deceleration of China's economic growth, the paper puts forward some countermeasures and suggestions to promote the optimization of labor force structure, such as accelerating the coordinated development of employment structure and industrial structure of labor force, raising the level of urbanization, deepening the reform of population policy; We will increase investment in education.
【學位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F249.2

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