本文關(guān)鍵詞： CPI波動(dòng) 外部影響因素 路徑分析 VAR　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)改革的不斷深入,新問(wèn)題、新現(xiàn)象在不斷涌出,例如我國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)能源和原材料的供應(yīng)數(shù)量存在有限性,對(duì)國(guó)際上的原材料、煤炭、金屬礦產(chǎn)品和石油等商品的進(jìn)口量正逐年增加,它們均導(dǎo)致我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)對(duì)外部資源的依賴度不斷提高,如今這些問(wèn)題已成為影響我國(guó)CPI波動(dòng)的首要原因。然而我國(guó)開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)下對(duì)CPI的適度波動(dòng)及構(gòu)成因子方面的探究已經(jīng)取得了很好的成績(jī),同時(shí),CPI的過(guò)高或過(guò)低波動(dòng),映射出社會(huì)上的供需之間的矛盾日驅(qū)激烈,本國(guó)的問(wèn)題應(yīng)當(dāng)具體研究,僅僅從結(jié)構(gòu)內(nèi)部探究已經(jīng)不能夠充分解釋,并且近年來(lái)CPI的組成部分及其各自的權(quán)重又變化不大,故而我們更針對(duì)性的選擇CPI的主要外部影響因素來(lái)研究,以期來(lái)解釋由這些新問(wèn)題、新現(xiàn)象所引發(fā)的CPI波動(dòng)。本文在探究我國(guó)CPI的波動(dòng)情況及影響其波動(dòng)的外部因素時(shí),選擇因素間的傳導(dǎo)關(guān)系作為突破點(diǎn),嘗試通過(guò)分析四類外部因素對(duì)我國(guó)CPI的波動(dòng)情況來(lái)發(fā)現(xiàn)各因素的影響程度及方式。本文首先從理論、定性的視角對(duì)CPI波動(dòng)及四類外部影響因素進(jìn)行論述,介紹CPI波動(dòng)的涵義及四類外部影響因素的定義和對(duì)CPI的影響方式;之后從我國(guó)實(shí)際經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行的角度和文獻(xiàn)覽讀對(duì)影響CPI的各因素進(jìn)行理論路徑分析;再通過(guò)我國(guó)2008-2016年的多項(xiàng)經(jīng)濟(jì)指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行我國(guó)CPI波動(dòng)的統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,進(jìn)而對(duì)我國(guó)CPI波動(dòng)的外部影響因素進(jìn)行傳導(dǎo)渠道分析及動(dòng)態(tài)差異性分析;最后根據(jù)探究結(jié)果可針對(duì)性的總結(jié)出我國(guó)CPI波動(dòng)規(guī)律的管理政策。從分析結(jié)果能夠看出,我國(guó)CPI波動(dòng)受多因素影響,一是輸入性因素的物價(jià)影響正逐步擴(kuò)大,超貨幣因素占據(jù)首位,CPI對(duì)其沖擊反應(yīng)強(qiáng)烈且迅速;二是老牌影響因素仍舊影響顯著,其中貨幣因素起到直接作用,幾乎無(wú)時(shí)滯且后期作用明顯,實(shí)際需求因素作用效果削弱,收入因素起到間接作用,雖影響較弱但不容忽視;三是我國(guó)現(xiàn)階段的CPI波動(dòng)的影響要素具有高度的內(nèi)部傳遞性。針對(duì)上述我國(guó)CPI波動(dòng)的特點(diǎn),本文提出了如下幾點(diǎn)政策建議:一是持續(xù)完善我國(guó)收入分配制度,充分發(fā)揮政府導(dǎo)向的積極作用;二是自主調(diào)節(jié)利率水平,加快以市場(chǎng)為導(dǎo)向的利率和匯率決定機(jī)制;三是推進(jìn)穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策與積極的財(cái)政政策的實(shí)施;四是樹(shù)立科學(xué)發(fā)展理念,對(duì)現(xiàn)有的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式進(jìn)行轉(zhuǎn)變。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of China's economic reform, new problems and new phenomena are emerging, such as the limited supply of domestic energy and raw materials, to the international raw materials, coal. The import of metal ore products and petroleum and other commodities is increasing year by year, which leads to the increasing dependence of our economy on external resources. Nowadays, these problems have become the primary reason to affect the fluctuation of CPI in our country. However, the research on the moderate fluctuation of CPI and its constituent factors in the open economy of our country has made good achievements at the same time. The fluctuation of CPI is too high or too low, which reflects the contradiction between supply and demand in the society. The problems in our country should be studied concretely, and it can not be fully explained from the internal structure. And in recent years, the components of CPI and their respective weights have not changed much, so we choose the main external factors of CPI to study, in order to explain these new problems. This paper studies the fluctuation of CPI in China and the external factors that affect the fluctuation, and chooses the conduction relationship between factors as the breakthrough point. By analyzing the fluctuation of four kinds of external factors on CPI in China, we try to find out the influence degree and mode of each factor. From the qualitative angle of view, the paper discusses the fluctuation of CPI and four kinds of external influencing factors, and introduces the meaning of CPI fluctuation, the definition of four kinds of external factors and the ways of influencing CPI. Then from the point of view of the actual economic operation of our country and the literature review, this paper analyzes the theoretical path of the factors affecting CPI. Then the statistical analysis of CPI fluctuation in China is carried out through the data of many economic indicators from 2008 to 2016 in China. Then, the external influencing factors of CPI fluctuation in China are analyzed through conduction channel and dynamic difference analysis. Finally, according to the research results, we can summarize the management policy of CPI volatility law in China. From the analysis results, we can see that the CPI volatility in China is affected by many factors. First, the price influence of the imported factors is gradually expanding, and the super-monetary factor occupies the first place to react strongly and rapidly to the impact of CPI; Second, the old influence factors are still significant, in which the monetary factor plays a direct role, almost no time delay and the late effect is obvious, the actual demand factor effect is weakened, the income factor plays an indirect role. Although the influence is weak, it can not be ignored; Thirdly, the influencing factors of CPI fluctuation in our country at present have high internal transitivity, aiming at the characteristics of the above mentioned CPI fluctuation in our country. This paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: first, to continuously improve our income distribution system, give full play to the positive role of government guidance; Second, adjust the level of interest rate independently and speed up the market-oriented interest rate and exchange rate determination mechanism; Third, to promote the implementation of prudent monetary policy and active fiscal policy; Fourth, set up the concept of scientific development, to the existing mode of economic development to change.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F726

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 劉金全;解瑤姝;;中國(guó)財(cái)政赤字的通貨膨脹效應(yīng)[J];南方經(jīng)濟(jì);2016年03期

2 徐靜;;我國(guó)通貨膨脹的特點(diǎn)與成因分析[J];財(cái)會(huì)研究;2013年04期

3 張海濤;;影響我國(guó)當(dāng)前CPI的因素分析及動(dòng)態(tài)預(yù)測(cè)[J];北方經(jīng)濟(jì);2012年18期

4 王剛;;對(duì)我國(guó)CPI和工資收入聯(lián)動(dòng)關(guān)系的思考[J];價(jià)格理論與實(shí)踐;2012年07期

5 王于棟;王靜;;石油價(jià)格波動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)CPI影響的實(shí)證研究[J];消費(fèi)經(jīng)濟(jì);2012年02期

6 樊元;邢莉莉;;利率上升對(duì)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響分析[J];商業(yè)時(shí)代;2012年02期

7 馬竹君;周德群;;煤炭?jī)r(jià)格上漲對(duì)我國(guó)物價(jià)的影響[J];能源技術(shù)與管理;2011年05期

8 蘇劍;;中國(guó)目前的通貨膨脹:特點(diǎn)、成因及對(duì)策[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)動(dòng)態(tài);2011年01期

9 劉東皇;沈坤榮;;收入分配、居民消費(fèi)與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展方式轉(zhuǎn)變[J];華東經(jīng)濟(jì)管理;2010年11期

10 張成思;李穎;;全球化與通貨膨脹動(dòng)態(tài)機(jī)制研究:基于新興市場(chǎng)國(guó)家的經(jīng)驗(yàn)分析與啟示[J];世界經(jīng)濟(jì);2010年11期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前2條

1 李迓熹;物價(jià)體系的外部影響因素及其內(nèi)部傳導(dǎo)關(guān)系研究[D];中國(guó)海洋大學(xué);2014年

2 田f 緒;電力部門的投入產(chǎn)出分析與相關(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)問(wèn)題的研究[D];北京交通大學(xué);2008年

，

本文編號(hào)：1464519