本文關(guān)鍵詞： CPI波動 外部影響因素 路徑分析 VAR　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著我國經(jīng)濟改革的不斷深入,新問題、新現(xiàn)象在不斷涌出,例如我國國內(nèi)能源和原材料的供應(yīng)數(shù)量存在有限性,對國際上的原材料、煤炭、金屬礦產(chǎn)品和石油等商品的進口量正逐年增加,它們均導(dǎo)致我國經(jīng)濟對外部資源的依賴度不斷提高,如今這些問題已成為影響我國CPI波動的首要原因。然而我國開放經(jīng)濟下對CPI的適度波動及構(gòu)成因子方面的探究已經(jīng)取得了很好的成績,同時,CPI的過高或過低波動,映射出社會上的供需之間的矛盾日驅(qū)激烈,本國的問題應(yīng)當(dāng)具體研究,僅僅從結(jié)構(gòu)內(nèi)部探究已經(jīng)不能夠充分解釋,并且近年來CPI的組成部分及其各自的權(quán)重又變化不大,故而我們更針對性的選擇CPI的主要外部影響因素來研究,以期來解釋由這些新問題、新現(xiàn)象所引發(fā)的CPI波動。本文在探究我國CPI的波動情況及影響其波動的外部因素時,選擇因素間的傳導(dǎo)關(guān)系作為突破點,嘗試通過分析四類外部因素對我國CPI的波動情況來發(fā)現(xiàn)各因素的影響程度及方式。本文首先從理論、定性的視角對CPI波動及四類外部影響因素進行論述,介紹CPI波動的涵義及四類外部影響因素的定義和對CPI的影響方式;之后從我國實際經(jīng)濟運行的角度和文獻覽讀對影響CPI的各因素進行理論路徑分析;再通過我國2008-2016年的多項經(jīng)濟指標數(shù)據(jù)進行我國CPI波動的統(tǒng)計分析,進而對我國CPI波動的外部影響因素進行傳導(dǎo)渠道分析及動態(tài)差異性分析;最后根據(jù)探究結(jié)果可針對性的總結(jié)出我國CPI波動規(guī)律的管理政策。從分析結(jié)果能夠看出,我國CPI波動受多因素影響,一是輸入性因素的物價影響正逐步擴大,超貨幣因素占據(jù)首位,CPI對其沖擊反應(yīng)強烈且迅速;二是老牌影響因素仍舊影響顯著,其中貨幣因素起到直接作用,幾乎無時滯且后期作用明顯,實際需求因素作用效果削弱,收入因素起到間接作用,雖影響較弱但不容忽視;三是我國現(xiàn)階段的CPI波動的影響要素具有高度的內(nèi)部傳遞性。針對上述我國CPI波動的特點,本文提出了如下幾點政策建議:一是持續(xù)完善我國收入分配制度,充分發(fā)揮政府導(dǎo)向的積極作用;二是自主調(diào)節(jié)利率水平,加快以市場為導(dǎo)向的利率和匯率決定機制;三是推進穩(wěn)健的貨幣政策與積極的財政政策的實施;四是樹立科學(xué)發(fā)展理念,對現(xiàn)有的經(jīng)濟發(fā)展方式進行轉(zhuǎn)變。
[Abstract]:With the deepening of China's economic reform, new problems and new phenomena are emerging, such as the limited supply of domestic energy and raw materials, to the international raw materials, coal. The import of metal ore products and petroleum and other commodities is increasing year by year, which leads to the increasing dependence of our economy on external resources. Nowadays, these problems have become the primary reason to affect the fluctuation of CPI in our country. However, the research on the moderate fluctuation of CPI and its constituent factors in the open economy of our country has made good achievements at the same time. The fluctuation of CPI is too high or too low, which reflects the contradiction between supply and demand in the society. The problems in our country should be studied concretely, and it can not be fully explained from the internal structure. And in recent years, the components of CPI and their respective weights have not changed much, so we choose the main external factors of CPI to study, in order to explain these new problems. This paper studies the fluctuation of CPI in China and the external factors that affect the fluctuation, and chooses the conduction relationship between factors as the breakthrough point. By analyzing the fluctuation of four kinds of external factors on CPI in China, we try to find out the influence degree and mode of each factor. From the qualitative angle of view, the paper discusses the fluctuation of CPI and four kinds of external influencing factors, and introduces the meaning of CPI fluctuation, the definition of four kinds of external factors and the ways of influencing CPI. Then from the point of view of the actual economic operation of our country and the literature review, this paper analyzes the theoretical path of the factors affecting CPI. Then the statistical analysis of CPI fluctuation in China is carried out through the data of many economic indicators from 2008 to 2016 in China. Then, the external influencing factors of CPI fluctuation in China are analyzed through conduction channel and dynamic difference analysis. Finally, according to the research results, we can summarize the management policy of CPI volatility law in China. From the analysis results, we can see that the CPI volatility in China is affected by many factors. First, the price influence of the imported factors is gradually expanding, and the super-monetary factor occupies the first place to react strongly and rapidly to the impact of CPI; Second, the old influence factors are still significant, in which the monetary factor plays a direct role, almost no time delay and the late effect is obvious, the actual demand factor effect is weakened, the income factor plays an indirect role. Although the influence is weak, it can not be ignored; Thirdly, the influencing factors of CPI fluctuation in our country at present have high internal transitivity, aiming at the characteristics of the above mentioned CPI fluctuation in our country. This paper puts forward the following policy suggestions: first, to continuously improve our income distribution system, give full play to the positive role of government guidance; Second, adjust the level of interest rate independently and speed up the market-oriented interest rate and exchange rate determination mechanism; Third, to promote the implementation of prudent monetary policy and active fiscal policy; Fourth, set up the concept of scientific development, to the existing mode of economic development to change.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F726

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