本文關(guān)鍵詞： 黃石市 人口老齡化 消費結(jié)構(gòu) 灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析　出處：《湖北師范大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

【摘要】：根據(jù)國家統(tǒng)計局公布的不同年份65歲以上人口比重來看,中國的老齡化呈加速上升狀態(tài)。最近的人口普查顯示,湖北省人口已基本老化。黃石市人口老齡化的速度也在日益增長,其大于等于65歲的老年人口占總?cè)丝诘谋壤?2010年比十年前上升了 2.56個百分點。在人口老齡化的背景下,老年人消費的方式、對象、偏好、習慣等與年輕人和少年兒童不同,必然會對消費結(jié)構(gòu)產(chǎn)生影響。所以,為增進黃石經(jīng)濟飛快發(fā)展,踴躍擴展消費需要,充分實現(xiàn)經(jīng)濟增長被消費所推動,貫徹實施國家、湖北省對于激勵消費的種種政策。課題研究主要基于黃石市第六次人口普查資料,以及黃石市第五次人口普查數(shù)據(jù)和歷年統(tǒng)計年鑒數(shù)據(jù)作為補充數(shù)據(jù),研究人口老齡化對黃石市消費結(jié)構(gòu)的影響。文章的主要內(nèi)容第一章是緒論,擺明課題背景、意義;內(nèi)容、使用的方法以及文章的大綱;立異和不足之處。還包括本文所參考的相關(guān)文獻研究綜述。第二章是與人口老齡化、年齡結(jié)構(gòu)、消費結(jié)構(gòu)相關(guān)的基本理論;第三章是用描述性的統(tǒng)計分析方法對黃石市人口老齡化和消費結(jié)構(gòu)的近狀進行剖析,描述黃石市人口老齡化的基本情況、特征;居民消費結(jié)構(gòu)的基本情況和特征。第四章是把人口老齡化和消費結(jié)構(gòu)的影響關(guān)系進行實證分析。本文選取"小于14歲的少年兒童比重"、"15至64歲的勞動年齡人口比重"、"大于65歲的老年人口比重"為人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)的映射量。選擇"食"、"衣"、"居"、"家電及用品"、"交通與傳播"、"教育文化娛樂"、"保健"和"其他"消費類消費占消費支出總額的比重,為消費結(jié)構(gòu)的映射量。進行灰色關(guān)聯(lián)分析時,人口年齡結(jié)構(gòu)時間序列是母序列(參考序列),消費結(jié)構(gòu)時間序列是子序列(比較序列)。然后再依照公式,計算出每個子序列和母序列的關(guān)聯(lián)度,比較關(guān)聯(lián)度的大小。結(jié)果明示,人口老齡化對"家電及用品"的影響最大,其次是"居",再次是"交通與傳播"。其對"保健"類產(chǎn)品消費的影響僅次于"交通與傳播"之后,此分析結(jié)果理論上也符合現(xiàn)代社會的生活現(xiàn)實。第五章是在第三、四章的基礎(chǔ)上,提出應(yīng)對黃石市人口老齡化及優(yōu)化消費結(jié)構(gòu)的對策。為企業(yè)在開發(fā)老年消費品決策方面提供參考價值。
[Abstract]:China's ageing is on the rise, according to the National Bureau of Statistics for the proportion of people over 65 in different years, according to a recent census. The population of Hubei Province has basically aged. The aging rate of population in Huangshi City is also increasing day by day, which is more than 65 years old population in the proportion of the total population. In 2010, it was 2. 56 percent higher than a decade ago. In the context of an ageing population, the way older people consume, their objects, their preferences, their habits are different from those of young people and young children. Therefore, in order to promote the rapid development of Yellowstone economy, actively expand consumption needs, fully achieve economic growth driven by consumption, the implementation of the country. The research is mainly based on the data of 6th censuses in Huangshi city, the data of 5th censuses in Huangshi city and the statistical yearbook data of the past years as supplementary data. The main content of this paper is the introduction, which shows the background and significance of the subject. Content, methods used and the outline of the article; The second chapter is the basic theories related to population aging, age structure and consumption structure. The third chapter is the use of descriptive statistical analysis of Huangshi population aging and consumption structure of the close analysis of the basic situation and characteristics of Huangshi population aging; Chapter 4th is an empirical analysis of the relationship between population aging and consumption structure. This paper selects the proportion of children less than 14 years old. "the proportion of the working-age population aged 15 to 64", "the proportion of the elderly population over the age of 65" is the mapping amount of the age structure of the population. Choose "food", "clothing", "dwelling", "appliances and articles". "Transportation and communication", "education, culture and entertainment", "health care" and "other" consumption as a proportion of total consumption expenditure, are the mapping amount of consumption structure. The population age structure time series is the mother sequence (reference sequence), and the consumption structure time series is the sub-sequence (comparison sequence). Then according to the formula, the correlation degree between each sub-sequence and mother sequence is calculated. The results show that the aging of the population has the greatest influence on "household appliances and supplies", followed by "residence". The second is "traffic and communication". Its effect on the consumption of "health care" products is second only to that of "traffic and communication". The results of this analysis also accord with the reality of life in modern society theoretically. Chapter 5th is the third chapter. On the basis of the four chapters, the author puts forward the countermeasures to deal with the aging of population and the optimization of consumption structure in Huangshi City, which provides reference value for enterprises in the decision-making of developing aged consumer goods.
【學位授予單位】：湖北師范大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F126.1;C924.24

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