本文關(guān)鍵詞： 西北農(nóng)村地區(qū) 農(nóng)戶商業(yè)信用融資 logit模型　出處：《西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：當(dāng)前,解決農(nóng)村發(fā)展問題是我國走向共同富裕的關(guān)鍵,在農(nóng)村實(shí)現(xiàn)長足持續(xù)的發(fā)展過程中,資金扮演著重要角色,然而,伴隨商業(yè)銀行在農(nóng)村基層的缺失和政府對民間借貸的限制,我國農(nóng)村金融發(fā)展問題一直懸而未決。由于農(nóng)戶普遍受到信貸配給,替代性融資在農(nóng)村廣泛使用,與農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)具有直接聯(lián)系的融資方式——商業(yè)信用融資廣為接受,及時(shí)補(bǔ)充了農(nóng)戶生產(chǎn)性資金。然而,以農(nóng)資賒銷為主要表現(xiàn)形式的農(nóng)戶商業(yè)信用融資發(fā)展尚不完善,由于缺乏相應(yīng)的法律和規(guī)范,農(nóng)資市場由于賒銷帶來的資金流動(dòng)不暢通問題嚴(yán)重,由此給我國農(nóng)資市場帶來了極大的限制,也使農(nóng)戶商業(yè)信用的融資功效大打折扣。對我國農(nóng)村地區(qū)商業(yè)信用方面的研究,應(yīng)當(dāng)繼續(xù)深化和豐富,農(nóng)村商業(yè)信用也會(huì)在我國農(nóng)村地區(qū)經(jīng)濟(jì)的繼續(xù)發(fā)展騰飛中發(fā)揮應(yīng)有的功效。國內(nèi)外對商業(yè)信用融資的理論分為兩部分,一是替代性融資理論,二是產(chǎn)品市場競爭性假說,兩大理論對商業(yè)信用的融資替代補(bǔ)充性功能都有所闡述。另外有一些研究,以我國農(nóng)村地區(qū)商業(yè)信用融資為主要研究對象,運(yùn)用理論解釋、實(shí)證研究等方法,闡述了部分地區(qū)農(nóng)戶通過農(nóng)資賒銷的方式獲得商業(yè)信用的情況,深化了替代性融資理論和產(chǎn)品市場競爭性假說,為農(nóng)村商業(yè)信用融資的進(jìn)一步研究奠定了基礎(chǔ)。本文在國內(nèi)外研究的基礎(chǔ)上,選定農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展相對落后的西北地區(qū)進(jìn)行分析,研究方法采用理論分析和實(shí)證驗(yàn)證相結(jié)合。基于最新實(shí)地調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù),結(jié)合描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析、變量間相關(guān)性檢驗(yàn)、logit模型回歸分析等方法,對該農(nóng)村區(qū)域農(nóng)戶購買農(nóng)資中的商業(yè)信用融資的情況進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析。實(shí)證研究對樣本區(qū)域進(jìn)行農(nóng)戶家庭情況、經(jīng)濟(jì)收入情況、農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)情況、借貸情況、農(nóng)資購買情況進(jìn)行描述性分析,并總結(jié)調(diào)研區(qū)域自有的特征;之后對受訪區(qū)域農(nóng)戶購買農(nóng)資中的商業(yè)信用融資影響因素進(jìn)行回歸分析,得出西北地區(qū)農(nóng)戶購買農(nóng)資中的商業(yè)信用融資的主要影響因素,正向影響因素包括:借貸情況、經(jīng)營耕地面積、家庭純收入農(nóng)業(yè)占比、農(nóng)資品種(化肥)、購買渠道(產(chǎn)業(yè)化)、技術(shù)指導(dǎo),負(fù)向影響因素為家庭純收入(對數(shù));同時(shí),對各個(gè)影響因素進(jìn)行具體分析,其中著重分析資金借貸情況對農(nóng)戶購買農(nóng)資時(shí)的商業(yè)信用融資的影響,指出在我國西北農(nóng)村地區(qū)二者之間替代關(guān)系的特殊表現(xiàn);最后根據(jù)文章分析結(jié)果,提出相關(guān)的政策建議。本文共分為五個(gè)章節(jié),第一章是文章導(dǎo)論,對研究背景、研究目的及意義、研究思路與路線、方法及可能的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)和不足之處等進(jìn)行了簡要描述。第二章對全文的理論基礎(chǔ)和前人研究成果進(jìn)行了介紹,理論基礎(chǔ)和國內(nèi)外研究動(dòng)態(tài)在本文選題、進(jìn)行實(shí)地調(diào)研和研究思路等方面都有很大的啟示作用,也加深了本人對經(jīng)濟(jì)金融理論的認(rèn)識(shí)。文章第三章構(gòu)建了研究模型,并根據(jù)實(shí)地調(diào)研數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行描述性統(tǒng)計(jì)分析,通過對數(shù)據(jù)的初步分析,對農(nóng)戶商業(yè)信用融資的影響因素進(jìn)行的猜想:戶主及家庭特征、農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)特征、農(nóng)資購買特征等三個(gè)方面可能為被解釋變量產(chǎn)生影響。第四章是實(shí)證檢驗(yàn),本文把農(nóng)戶商業(yè)信用融資作為因變量,通過logit回歸模型對被解釋變量的影響因素進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證,實(shí)證結(jié)果得出對農(nóng)戶商業(yè)信用融資具有顯著性影響的因素。第五章為文章的結(jié)論和政策建議,在前文分析的基礎(chǔ)之上得出全文的研究結(jié)論,并根據(jù)研究結(jié)果對農(nóng)村金融和農(nóng)資市場的完善提出相關(guān)建議。
[Abstract]:At present, rural development to solve the problem is our key to common prosperity in rural areas, achieve rapid and sustainable development in the process of capital plays an important role, however, with commercial banks in the rural grassroots government and lack of restrictions on private lending, financial development issues in China's rural areas have been widespread in suspense. Because the farmers' credit rationing alternative financing, widely used in rural areas, and agricultural production is directly related to the financing of commercial credit financing is widely accepted, timely replenishment of farmer production funds. However, the agricultural credit sales as the main form of rural commercial credit financing development is still not perfect, because of the lack of corresponding laws and regulations, agricultural market because the flow of funds is not smooth credit brings serious problems, which brings a great restriction to China's agricultural market, the farmers for the commercial credit financing Effect greatly. Research on commercial credit in the rural area of our country area, should continue to deepen and enrich the rural commercial credit may exert its effects in the continued development of the economy in the rural area of China. Both at home and abroad of commercial credit financing theory is divided into two parts, one is the alternative financing theory, hypothesis two is the market competition of products, financing two major theories of commercial credit and complementary function are illustrated. Some research on commercial credit financing in China's rural areas as the main research object, using theoretical explanation, empirical research method, elaborated the farmer households to obtain commercial credit by way of agricultural credit. Deepen the alternative financing theory and product market competition hypothesis, which lays a foundation for the further study of rural commercial credit financing. Based on the domestic and foreign, Analysis of the relatively backward rural economic development in Northwest China selected, adopting the research method of theoretical analysis and empirical combination. The latest survey data based on the combination of descriptive statistical analysis, correlation test between variables, logit regression analysis and other methods, the rural area farmers to buy agricultural financing in the case of commercial credit analysis. Empirical research on household sample area, economic income, agricultural production, agricultural lending, buy a descriptive analysis, and summarizes its own regional characteristics; after the visit by regional factors influence farmers to buy agricultural commercial credit financing in regression analysis. The main influencing factors of the farmers in Northwest China the purchase of agricultural financing in commercial credit, including the positive impact factors: lending business, cultivation area, family income The proportion of agriculture, agricultural varieties (fertilizer), purchase channels (industrialization), technical guidance, negative factors for family income (log); at the same time, a detailed analysis of the various factors, which focuses on the analysis of impact of financing funds lending to farmers to buy agricultural of commercial credit, and points out that the special performance instead of the relationship between rural areas in Northwest China two; finally, according to the analysis results, puts forward relevant policy suggestions. This paper is divided into five chapters, the first chapter is the introduction of research background, research purpose and significance, research ideas and routes, gives a brief description of methods and possible innovation and the shortages of the paper. The second chapter introduces the basic theory and previous research results, the theoretical basis and dynamic research at home and abroad in this paper, aspects of field research and research ideas are great Enlightenment, also deepened my knowledge of economic and financial theory. The third chapter builds a research model and descriptive statistical analysis according to the survey data, through the preliminary analysis of the data, the influencing factors of rural commercial credit financing that features the head of household and family, agricultural production characteristics, three aspects of agricultural buy characteristics may influence as explanatory variables. The fourth chapter is the empirical test, the farmers' commercial credit financing as the dependent variable, through the logit regression model to verify the explanatory factor variables, the empirical results show that factors have significant impact on Farmers' commercial credit financing. The fifth chapter is the conclusion and policy recommendations, draw conclusions based on the above analysis, according to the results of improving rural finance and agricultural market make relevant construction Yee.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：西北農(nóng)林科技大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.35;F830.42

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