本文關鍵詞：重慶市農地非農化時空動態(tài)演進與形成機理研究　出處：《西南大學》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學位論文

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【摘要】：自2014年起,受全球經濟復蘇緩慢及國內房地產市場低迷等多種不利因素影響,中國經濟發(fā)展進入“增速放緩”的新常態(tài),實現(xiàn)資源集約利用與構建經濟持續(xù)健康增長新機制是現(xiàn)階段中國經濟發(fā)展需要解決的核心問題。改革開放以來,中國城鎮(zhèn)化成績斐然,城鎮(zhèn)化水平從1978年的17.92%上升到2015年的56.10%,年均增長1.03個百分點。農地非農化現(xiàn)象作為城鎮(zhèn)化過程中的必然產物,為中國的工業(yè)化和城鎮(zhèn)化提供了強力支撐,土地的“寬供應”和“高消耗”保障了工業(yè)化和城鎮(zhèn)化的快速推進,但同時也造成建設用地低效利用、優(yōu)質農地大量流失、生態(tài)環(huán)境退化及社會不穩(wěn)定因素增加等一系列現(xiàn)實問題。伴隨社會經濟發(fā)展、城鎮(zhèn)擴張,非農要素在空間上的不斷集聚,農地非農化現(xiàn)象在城市邊緣地區(qū)表現(xiàn)尤為活躍。而農地非農化水平時空分布差異則映射出區(qū)域自然本底條件、社會經濟發(fā)展水平及其他關聯(lián)因素在空間上的不斷重組和異化。掌握區(qū)域農地非農化時空動態(tài)演進與形成機理,科學管控農地非農化進程,是促進經濟發(fā)展過程中自然與人文可持續(xù)互動的重要手段。目前,系統(tǒng)全面研究重慶市農地非農化問題的文獻尚不多見。重慶市兼具大城市、大農村、大山區(qū)、大庫區(qū)特征,近年來,經濟高速增長、城鎮(zhèn)化快速推進,農地非農化時空分布差異顯著、變化劇烈、影響廣泛。本文在文獻分析評述和相關概念內涵深入挖掘基礎上,基于資源環(huán)境統(tǒng)計理論和分析視角,將統(tǒng)計學計量模型融入到地理學時空探索中,借助SPSS、Eviews、Matalab、ArcGIS及Maxdeadea solver pro等數據和空間統(tǒng)計分析軟件平臺,應用Dagum基尼系數模型、非參數Kernel密度估計、地理探測器、協(xié)整和因果檢驗、超效率SBM模型等研究方法,從“數量”和“質量”角度,對重慶市不同階段農地非農化水平和效率時空動態(tài)演進規(guī)律進行分析,重點圍繞農地非農化效率測算及損失、農地非農化投入與經濟增長的多變量互動關系等問題,深入刻畫和剖析重慶市及所屬各區(qū)域農地非農化時空動態(tài)演進與形成機理,構建了差別化的農地非農化科學管控策略。以期為地方相關部門制定政策、規(guī)劃及戰(zhàn)略提供科學依據和參考,促進區(qū)域土地資源高效利用和社會經濟健康可持續(xù)發(fā)展。論文研究內容與主要結論包括:首先,從“數量”角度,借助arcgis軟件平臺,運用dagum基尼系數和非參數kernel密度估計定量測算研究區(qū)農地非農化水平空間非均衡程度及動態(tài)演進,并對農地非農化水平空間非均衡進行解構分析。結果表明:(1)重慶市農地非農化水平的時空動態(tài)地域性差異特征明顯,呈現(xiàn)以區(qū)域Ⅰ為中心,區(qū)域Ⅱ為一圈,區(qū)域Ⅲ和區(qū)域Ⅳ為外圍的“中心——外圍”空間分異格局;(2)重慶市農地非農化水平分布表現(xiàn)出空間高度非均衡特征,其空間非均衡程度在研究時段內呈現(xiàn)出明顯的w型波浪變化形態(tài),地區(qū)間差距仍是導致重慶市農地非農化水平空間非均衡形成的主因;(3)伴隨區(qū)域農地非農化水平不斷上升,其地區(qū)間差距呈擴大態(tài)勢。其次,從“質量”角度,本文在重點考慮農地非農化過程中對環(huán)境擾動的情況下,構建了包含經濟、社會、生態(tài)在內的全面投入、期望產出與非期望產出指標體系,利用超效率sbm模型對研究區(qū)37個決策單元農地非農化效率進行客觀、科學、合理和全面評估,并深入分析農地非農化效率損失的原因。測算結果表明:(1)2004—2013年重慶市農地非農化效率隨時間呈現(xiàn)出波動性起伏,且決策單元效率空間分布不均勻、差異顯著,整體水平亟待改善;(2)從投入與產出的冗余來看,引致各決策單元農地非農化效率損失的原因呈現(xiàn)多樣性,主要包括農地非農化數量投入冗余、非期望產出過量、投入要素不匹配、期望產出不足;(3)通過交叉對比分析發(fā)現(xiàn),農地非農化數量投入冗余和土地利用過程中外部不經濟性是導致重慶市農地非農化效率損失兩個最重要的因素,農地非農化進程中資源和環(huán)境存在較大節(jié)約和保護空間。提高資源的利用效率、降低農地非農化的過度消耗、加大環(huán)境保護投入和治理環(huán)境污染力度成為提高區(qū)域農地非農化效率的重要途徑。第三,由于農地非農化效率損失的主因是數量投入冗余,因此還需從數量角度回溯和進一步挖掘重慶市及不同區(qū)域農地非農化水平形成機理。本文采用地理探測器模型,從地理空間視角對區(qū)域農地非農化水平影響因素進行定量研究,結果表明:(1)要素稟賦、經濟發(fā)展水平、社會發(fā)展狀況及政策制度環(huán)境分別是影響研究區(qū)農地非農化水平空間分異的基礎條件、內在動力、中堅力量和外在條件;(2)影響不同區(qū)域農地非農化水平的主導因素具有顯著差異性:區(qū)域Ⅰ的主導因素為區(qū)位優(yōu)勢、非農產業(yè)要素和人口的空間集聚,區(qū)域Ⅱ的主導因素是第二產業(yè)的快速發(fā)展和非農人口集聚;區(qū)域Ⅲ和區(qū)域Ⅳ主要受區(qū)位、地形、路網密度和產業(yè)結構趨同、產業(yè)基礎薄弱等自然和社會因素制約,農地非農化進程主要表現(xiàn)為政策驅動下的城鎮(zhèn)化推動。第四,由于經濟增長是影響研究區(qū)農地非農化水平空間分異的內在動力與核心要素,故需進一步厘清農地非農化投入與經濟增長之間互動機理。本文將資本投入、勞動力投入作為中介變量引入基于生產函數的多變量因果關系研究模型,分析重慶市農地非農化投入與經濟增長之間的長短期因果關系,經過規(guī)范的計量經濟方法檢驗和實證分析,結果表明:(1)重慶市農地非農化數量(土地)、二三產業(yè)資本存量(資本)、二三產業(yè)勞動力投入(勞動力)與二三產業(yè)產值(經濟增長)存在長期均衡穩(wěn)定的協(xié)整關系;(2)短期內,當顯著性水平為0.05時,農地非農化投入與二三產業(yè)資本存量存在雙向因果關系,與經濟增長不存在單向或雙向因果關系,農地非農化投入并不能直接推動重慶市經濟的增長,其對于經濟增長的影響具有一定的傳滯性,研究區(qū)經濟增長主要是依靠二三產業(yè)資本存量投入和二三產業(yè)勞動力投入推動;(3)從長期因果關系檢驗來看,當顯著性水平為0.05時,由于建設和產業(yè)發(fā)展周期滯后影響,只存在從經濟增長到農地非農化投入的單向因果關系。因此,從長短期來看,農地非農化投入對重慶市地區(qū)經濟的快速增長并不存在直接因果關系。基于上述研究結論,為實現(xiàn)重慶市農地非農化合理管控前提下經濟持續(xù)健康增長目標,需從“數量”和“質量”角度,綜合考慮研究區(qū)農地非農化水平與效率的時空動態(tài)演進規(guī)律、影響不同區(qū)域農地非農化水平空間分異的主導因素及農地非農化投入與經濟增長之間的互動關系。據此,提出六項具體措施:因地制宜實行差別化的區(qū)域農地非農化管控政策;摒棄固有的計劃經濟思維習慣,規(guī)范政府在資源配置中的行為;打破地方政府“土地財政”依賴,多渠道融資破解資金瓶頸難題;積極推進新型城鎮(zhèn)化,促進農民就地城鎮(zhèn)化;地方政府加大對“三農”投入,縮小城鄉(xiāng)之間差距;轉變經濟增長方式,推動供給側改革實現(xiàn)土地資源集約利用。論文可能的創(chuàng)新點包括:(1)將統(tǒng)計學計量模型融入到地理學時空探索中,實現(xiàn)對重慶市農地非農化水平時空動態(tài)演進與形成機理的定性、定量與定位分析有效結合。采用計量經濟模型—dagum基尼系數和非參數kernel密度估計,分析重慶市農地非農化水平時空動態(tài)演進過程及空間非均衡特征,將影響農地非農化水平的自然條件和宏觀社會經濟等因素固化到地理空間,并運用空間計量分析模型——地理探測器對重慶市及不同區(qū)域農地非農化水平影響因素的決定力進行定量分析,打破了現(xiàn)有研究中影響因素決定力在空間分布上是均質的假設,拓寬了農地非農化形成機理的研究視角,豐富了農地非農化的研究內容;(2)進一步挖掘了農地非農化效率內涵,注重農地非農化進程中對社會和環(huán)境的影響,構建了一種包含投入、期望產出與非期望產出的新型農地非農化效率評價指標體系,產出指標選取涵蓋經濟、社會、環(huán)境三個維度,運用超效率SBM模型考察了重慶市37個決策單元農地非農化效率的時空演化特征,彌補了現(xiàn)有研究忽略社會產出和環(huán)境非期望產出的局限,克服了傳統(tǒng)DEA模型無法對效率有效的決策單元進行再排序的缺陷,對于其他區(qū)域農地非農化效率評估具有一定的借鑒意義;(3)將資本投入和勞動力投入作為中介變量引入基于生產函數的多變量因果關系研究模型,轉變了現(xiàn)有研究探討農地非農化化與經濟增長之間因果關系時多基于雙變量的思路,在研究思路上具有一定的探索性。
[Abstract]:Since 2014, affected by the global economic recovery is slow and the domestic real estate market downturn and other unfavorable factors, Chinese economic development has entered a new normal slowdown ", realize the intensive utilization of resources and the construction of the sustained and healthy economic growth mechanism is the core issue at the present stage China economic development need to be solved. Since the reform and opening up, Chinese town of success, the level of urbanization increased from 17.92% in 1978 to 56.10% in 2015, an average annual growth rate of 1.03 percentage points. The farmland conversion phenomenon in the process of urbanization as the inevitable product, providing strong support for the China of industrialization and urbanization, the land of the" wide supply "and" high consumption "to protect the rapid advance industrialization and urbanization, but also caused the construction of land use efficiency, the loss of a large number of high-quality agricultural land, ecological environment degradation and increase social instability and a series of now The real problem with the social and economic development, urban expansion, non-agricultural elements in the space of continuous agglomeration, farmland conversion phenomenon at the edge of the city area is particularly active. While the farmland non agriculturalization level difference is reflected in the temporal and spatial distribution of regional natural background conditions, and other related factors of economic and social development level unceasing reorganization and alienation in space the area of farmland. Grasp the space-time dynamic evolution and conversion mechanism, the scientific management of the process of farmland conversion, is an important means to promote sustainable natural and human interaction in the process of economic development. At present, systematic and comprehensive study of Chongqing city land conversion in the literature is rare. Chongqing city has the big city, large rural areas, mountains area, large reservoir characteristics, in recent years, rapid economic growth, rapid urbanization, farmland conversion distribution difference significantly, change, influence widely. In this paper Analysis of the connotation and related concepts on offer in-depth mining based on resources and environment statistics theory and analysis based on the perspective of the statistical measurement model into geography space exploration, with the help of SPSS, Eviews, Matalab, ArcGIS and Maxdeadea solver pro data and spatial statistical analysis software platform, Dagum application of Gini coefficient model, nonparametric density estimation Kernel geography, detector, cointegration and Granger causality test, the super efficiency SBM model and other research methods, from the "quantity" and "quality" view of Chongqing in different stage of farmland conversion and space-time dynamic evolution level of efficiency analysis, the focus on farmland loss calculation and conversion efficiency, non agriculturalization of farmland input and economic growth multivariable interaction problems, and in-depth characterization of Chongqing City, and the area of farmland conversion, space-time dynamic evolution and formation mechanism, construct the difference The scientific management strategy of non agriculturalization of farmland. In order to make policies for the local relevant departments, planning and strategy to provide a scientific basis and reference, to promote the efficient use of regional land resources and the sustainable development of social and economic health. Research contents and main conclusions are as follows: firstly, from the angle of "quantity", with the help of ArcGIS software, using dagum Gini kernel coefficient and non parametric density estimation of quantitative calculation on the farmland region of non agriculturalization level space unbalanced degree and dynamic evolution, and the farmland conversion level of non balanced deconstruction analysis. The results showed that: (1) temporal and spatial dynamics of regional differences of land conversion in Chongqing city level characteristics, present in region I as the center region II is a circle, region III and IV was peripheral region "core periphery" spatial pattern; (2) Chongqing farmland conversion level distribution show space Highly unbalanced characteristics, the equilibrium degree appears w wave shape changes significantly during the study period of the space, the gap between regions is still in Chongqing city farmland conversion level due to unbalanced spatial form; (3) with regional land conversion levels rise, the gap between regions has been broadened. Secondly, from the perspective of "quality", this paper focus on the farmland conversion in the process of environmental disturbance on the case, which contains economic, social, ecological, comprehensive investment, expected output and non expected output index system, using the super efficiency SBM model of the 37 decision making unit farmland study area conversion efficiency objective. The scientific, reasonable and comprehensive assessment, and in-depth analysis of the reasons of farmland conversion efficiency loss. The results showed that: (1) 2004 - 2013 in Chongqing City, farmland conversion efficiency with time is the volatility of ups and downs, and Decision making unit efficiency of spatial distribution is not uniform, significant differences, the overall level should be improved; (2) from the redundant input and output, the reason of each decision making unit farmland conversion efficiency loss caused by diversity, including the number of non-agricultural land input redundancy, undesirableoutputs excess input does not match the expected output deficiency; (3) through cross comparison and analysis found that the number of non-agricultural land input and land use external diseconomy is the result of Chongqing farmland conversion efficiency loss of two of the most important factors, there is a big space saving and protection of resources and environment in the process of farmland conversion. Improve resource utilization efficiency, reduce farmland the excessive consumption of non agriculture, increase investment in environmental protection and pollution control efforts to become an important way to improve regional land conversion efficiency. Third, due to land conversion The main reason is the loss of efficiency number of input redundancy, so we need to backtrack and further excavation in Chongqing city and different areas of farmland conversion level formation mechanism in terms of quantity. This paper uses geographic detector model, quantitative research, from the perspective of geographical space regional farmland conversion factors influence the level of results showed that: (1) the factor endowment, economic development the level of development and the policy system of social environment is the basic condition of the study area is farmland conversion level spatial difference of intrinsic motivation, backbone and external conditions; (2) the leading factors influencing the different areas of farmland conversion level has significant difference: the dominant factor for the area I regional advantages, non-agricultural industries the elements and the spatial concentration of population, the dominant factor is the rapid development of the regional industry agglomeration and the non-agricultural population of second; Area III and Region IV is mainly affected by the location. The shape, density of road network and the convergence of industrial structure restricts the weak industrial base and other natural and social factors, the process of farmland conversion is mainly driven by the policy of promoting urbanization. Fourth, because economic growth is the influence of farmland internal driving force and core elements of non-agricultural level spatial differentiation, so it is necessary to further clarify the farmland the interaction mechanism between agricultural investment and economic growth. In this paper, capital investment, labor input as intermediary variables into a multivariate study of causal model based on production function, analysis of Chongqing city farmland long-term causal relationship between agricultural investment and economic growth, through econometric method standard test and empirical analysis, results showed that: (1 Chongqing city) the number of non-agricultural land (land), two or three industrial capital (capital), the two or three industry labor (labor) and the output of the two or three industry (Economic Growth) cointegration relationship exists between a stable long-run equilibrium; (2) in the short term, when the significant level is 0.05, there is a two-way causal relationship between agricultural investment and the two or three industry capital stock of farmland, there is no one-way or two-way causal relationship with economic growth, farmland conversion investment does not directly promote the economic growth of Chongqing city. It has passed a certain lag for economic growth, economic growth in this area is mainly rely on the two or three industry and the two or three industry capital investment to promote labor input; (3) from the long-term causality test, when the significant level is 0.05, because of the construction and industrial development cycle lagged effects exist only to farmland conversion into unidirectional causality from economic growth. Therefore, from the long-term view, agricultural investment for rapid economic growth in Chongqing city there is no direct causal relationship based on farmland. The conclusion of the study, for the realization of Chongqing farmland conversion under the premise of reasonable control of the sustained and healthy economic growth target, from the "quantity" and "quality" point of view, considering the study area of farmland conversion level and efficiency of the space-time dynamic evolution rule, the dominant factors influencing regional land conversion level spatial differentiation and farmland the interactive relationship between agricultural investment and economic growth. Accordingly, put forward six specific measures: to implement differentiated regional farmland conversion control policy; abandon the inherent planned economy thinking habits, regulate the behavior of the government in the allocation of resources; to break the local government land finance dependence, the bottleneck of financing to crack financial problems; actively promote the new urbanization, promoting farmers in situ urbanization; local government to increase the "three rural" investment, narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas; the transformation of the economic growth The supply side reform implementation, promote the intensive use of land resources. The possible innovation of this paper includes: (1) the statistical measurement model into geography space exploration, the space-time dynamic evolution of qualitative agriculture level and formation mechanism of farmland in Chongqing City, the effective combination of the quantitative and positioning analysis econometric model dagum Gini. Coefficient and non parametric density estimation using kernel, analysis of Chongqing city land conversion level space-time dynamic evolution and non balanced characteristics will affect the farmland conversion level of natural conditions and social economic factors such as macro curing to the geographical space, and using spatial econometric analysis model: geographical detector in Chongqing city and different areas of farmland decision force agricultural level of the influence factors of quantitative analysis, breaking the existing research factors determine the force effect on the spatial distribution is homogeneous hypothesis, Broaden the research perspective of farmland conversion mechanism, enrich the research content of land conversion; (2) to further tap the connotation of farmland conversion efficiency, pay attention to farmland influence on society and the environment in the process of urbanization, the construction of a new farmland includes input, output and expected non expected output non evaluation index system conversion efficiency, output indicators covering economic, social and environment in three dimensions, using super efficiency SBM model to examine the 37 decision making unit land conversion efficiency of Chongqing City, the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics, make up the existing research output and ignore the social environment undesirableoutputs limitations, to overcome the traditional DEA model can not be defects sort of decision making unit efficiency, the conversion efficiency evaluation has certain reference significance to other non farmland area; (3) the capital investment and labor input as the intermediary variable A multivariate causality model based on production function is introduced. The transformation of existing research on the causal relationship between farmland conversion and economic growth is based on the idea of two variables. It has certain explorations in research thinking.

【學位授予單位】：西南大學
【學位級別】：博士
【學位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F321.1
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本文編號：1426601