本文關(guān)鍵詞：中國低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)優(yōu)化模型建立與分析　出處：《首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)》2016年博士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

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【摘要】：自工業(yè)革命之后,以煤炭、石油為代表的能源的使用極大促進(jìn)了世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展。但是,伴隨著人類經(jīng)濟(jì)活動的是日益增多的二氧化碳?xì)怏w的排放,近些年來“溫室效應(yīng)”導(dǎo)致的全球性氣候變暖已經(jīng)成為迫在眉睫的世界性環(huán)境問題。作為世界第一大的一次能源消費(fèi)國、煤炭類能源生產(chǎn)國以及最大的二氧化碳?xì)怏w排放國(美國能源信息署,2013),我國在巴黎世界氣候大會上承諾于2030年以前單位碳強(qiáng)度較2005年降低60%左右;此外,在《十三五年規(guī)劃綱要》中我國政府也提出了“十三五”期間,碳排放強(qiáng)度較2005年基礎(chǔ)上降低40%-45%的目標(biāo)。我國目前正面臨著穩(wěn)定經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、提高人民生活質(zhì)量以及限制二氧化碳排放總量等多重挑戰(zhàn)。正是基于這個背景,本文以低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)理論為基礎(chǔ),首先研究了我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、能源消耗與碳排量之間的動態(tài)關(guān)系,并通過計(jì)量模型進(jìn)行總量預(yù)測;然后再以我國投入產(chǎn)出表中的部門結(jié)構(gòu)為依據(jù),從碳排總量及能耗總量控制的視角,分別以經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)出最大化、碳排放量最小化以及行業(yè)環(huán)境效率評估等為目標(biāo)對我國產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行優(yōu)化調(diào)整,為我國如何進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)升級,如何從傳統(tǒng)經(jīng)濟(jì)向低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)過度提供了科學(xué)依據(jù)和參考。首先,本文對中國碳排、能耗及經(jīng)濟(jì)總量的關(guān)系進(jìn)行了研究。具體來說,先基于Toda-Yamamoto方法對三個變量間的線性Granger因果關(guān)系進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn),并通過bootstrap方法對置信區(qū)間進(jìn)行修正;而后再利用VAR系統(tǒng)將變量間的線性結(jié)構(gòu)剝離,通過BDS方法對它們之間的非線性關(guān)系進(jìn)行驗(yàn)證;最后再使用Diks-Panchenco方法對變量間的非線性因果關(guān)系進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。線性及非線性因果結(jié)論表明,從短期看,我國GDP與能源消費(fèi)間存在著雙向的Granger因果關(guān)系;碳排放也與GDP存在著雙向的Granger因果關(guān)系;而能源消費(fèi)是碳總量變化的Granger原因,反之結(jié)果不成立。找到三者的關(guān)系后繼續(xù)對其進(jìn)行量化分析。結(jié)果表明,GDP對于能源變動的作用非常大,而能源同樣也對GDP的變動有著較大影響;此外,能耗量還對碳排總量變化的影響非常大。能源消費(fèi)的沖擊對碳排量的影響是正向的,對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響同樣也是正向的;經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的沖擊對能源消耗與碳排放的影響路徑基本一致,呈“對稱”現(xiàn)象。綜上,如果政府采取能源保守政策,的確會降低現(xiàn)有的二氧化碳?xì)怏w的排放水平,但同時也會對我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長產(chǎn)生較大影響。如果單純以降低經(jīng)濟(jì)增速來換取碳排量的減少,在初期有一定的效果,但是效果持續(xù)時間較短且在后期反彈明顯。因此,只有在保證一定經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的前提下進(jìn)行產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整,才能真正實(shí)現(xiàn)我國經(jīng)濟(jì)健康、低碳的發(fā)展。最后,本文使用不同模型對三個變量分別進(jìn)行預(yù)測,對比后找出最優(yōu)結(jié)果。其次,本文對中國碳排、能耗及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)進(jìn)行分析。主要是通過在傳統(tǒng)投入產(chǎn)出表中引入行業(yè)的能耗量及碳排量數(shù)據(jù),并以2010年為基期進(jìn)行價格指數(shù)平減,得到我國2005-2012年可比價“碳排”投入產(chǎn)出表,并以此分析這一時期我國經(jīng)濟(jì)、能源與碳排間的內(nèi)在結(jié)構(gòu)。從2012年的結(jié)果看,二產(chǎn)部門對國民經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動作用明顯,且多以高碳排、高產(chǎn)出的行業(yè)為主;而三產(chǎn)部門除交通運(yùn)輸業(yè)外,其他部門的特點(diǎn)以低產(chǎn)業(yè)拉動、低碳排推動為主,但對于整體經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的限制較小。從2005-2012年的整體趨勢看,我國能源使用量逐年遞增,且以煤炭類為主,能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu)變化不大。但二產(chǎn)各部門的能源強(qiáng)度呈下降趨勢,而三產(chǎn)部門能源強(qiáng)度在這一時期內(nèi)基本走平。說明近十年我國整體與能源相關(guān)的技術(shù)持續(xù)進(jìn)步,能源利用率不斷提高。從能耗系數(shù)看,無論是直接能耗系數(shù)還是綜合能耗系數(shù),排名前幾位的都為第二產(chǎn)部門。我國二氧化碳排放總量2005-2012年間快速遞增,但多數(shù)部門的二氧化碳強(qiáng)度呈下降趨勢,說明我國經(jīng)濟(jì)的“低碳發(fā)展”態(tài)勢總體是好的。從行業(yè)的影響力系數(shù)看,2005-2012年間多數(shù)部門的產(chǎn)業(yè)影響力系數(shù)和碳排影響力系數(shù)雙雙下降,但第三產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的整體影響力略有上升。無論是產(chǎn)業(yè)影響力還是碳排影響力,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)部門的拉動作用(相比社會平均水平)都要遠(yuǎn)高于第一、第三產(chǎn)業(yè)部門,且多以資源密集型行業(yè)為主。綜上,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)在2005-2012年期間仍為我國的支柱產(chǎn)業(yè),但第三產(chǎn)業(yè)對于整體經(jīng)濟(jì)的拉動作用已經(jīng)逐步顯現(xiàn)且有擴(kuò)大趨勢。通過綜合考慮產(chǎn)業(yè)影響力與碳排影響力系數(shù),我國應(yīng)優(yōu)先發(fā)展低碳排影響力的產(chǎn)業(yè);推動高碳排、高產(chǎn)業(yè)影響這些“雙高”部門的科學(xué)發(fā)展,主要通過技術(shù)方面的改進(jìn)來降低這些行業(yè)的碳排;限制高碳排影響力、低產(chǎn)業(yè)影響力這些部門的發(fā)展,并通過產(chǎn)業(yè)升級和結(jié)構(gòu)調(diào)整來淘汰這些落后產(chǎn)能。最后,基于上文的總量預(yù)測及產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)來構(gòu)建我國低碳經(jīng)濟(jì)的優(yōu)化模型。目的是在保證現(xiàn)有經(jīng)濟(jì)增速、能耗及碳排放水平下,找尋我國2017年的最優(yōu)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)。最優(yōu)方案可以使得產(chǎn)出量最大,且相比基年(2012年)能源強(qiáng)度下降26.04%,二氧化碳強(qiáng)度下降48.95%。然后,在上面非限制優(yōu)化模型的基礎(chǔ)上繼續(xù)對碳排總量加入政策性“減排”條件。相比上面的優(yōu)化結(jié)果,在滿足最低限度經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的前提下,新方案可以使碳排總量再下降約22%。接著又基于環(huán)境DEA模型對我國41個部門的環(huán)境績效進(jìn)行了測評,建立動態(tài)環(huán)境效率指數(shù)并進(jìn)行分解,發(fā)現(xiàn)2005-2012年間,我國多數(shù)行業(yè)部門是非環(huán)境DEA有效的,其主要問題出在能源投入量上,部分行業(yè)的能源投入過大,能源消耗結(jié)構(gòu)不合理。此外,第二產(chǎn)業(yè)部門對于我國整體環(huán)境效率影響最大,2005-2007年階段其效率不足的主要原因在于技術(shù)水平較低;而2007年后其原因出在資源配置效率低下。2005-2012年間,影響三產(chǎn)服務(wù)業(yè)部門環(huán)境效率的主要原因在于投入資源的配置效率較低。決策者可以根據(jù)碳排量與經(jīng)濟(jì)增速的關(guān)系,結(jié)合實(shí)際情況,擬定我國產(chǎn)業(yè)規(guī)劃的最優(yōu)方案。同時也可以根據(jù)部門DEA效率,改進(jìn)各行業(yè)的環(huán)境績效水平。綜合上述研究結(jié)果,本文提出相應(yīng)的政策建議并對后續(xù)研究進(jìn)行展望。
[Abstract]:Since the industrial revolution, with coal, the use of oil as the representative of the energy greatly promoted the development of the world economy. However, with the human economic activity is increasing carbon dioxide emissions, global warming in recent years, the "greenhouse effect" lead has become a worldwide environmental problem as an energy imminent. The world's largest consumer of energy, coal production country and the largest emitter of carbon dioxide (US energy information administration, 2013), China promised in 2030 to 2005 before the unit carbon intensity is reduced by about 60% in the World Conference on climate in Paris; in addition, in the "13th Five-Year Year Plan" in our government put forward the "13th Five-Year" period, reduce the carbon emission intensity of 40%-45% target is based on the 2005. China is facing a stable economic growth, improve people's quality of life and Limit the total carbon dioxide emissions and other multiple challenges. It is based on this background, this paper is based on the theory of low carbon economy, firstly, China's economic growth, the dynamic relationship between energy consumption and carbon emissions, and through the econometric model predicts the total amount; then the output table of the Department structure of investment in China on the basis of from the total energy consumption and carbon emission control perspective, with the maximum economic output, carbon emissions minimization and industry environmental efficiency evaluation for the target to adjust and optimize the structure of China's industrial sector, for our country how to upgrade the industrial structure, from the traditional economy to a low carbon economy over provided scientific basis and reference. Firstly, the relationship between energy consumption and carbon emission Chinese, total economic output is studied. Specifically, based on the Toda-Yamamoto method of linear Granger causality between the three variables The relationship between test and the confidence interval was modified by bootstrap method; and then use the VAR system will be stripped of linear structure between the variables, through the BDS method to verify the nonlinear relation between them; finally, use the Diks-Panchenco method to test the variables of nonlinear causality. Linear and nonlinear causal conclusions show that from the short term, China's energy consumption between GDP and two-way Granger causality between carbon emissions and GDP; there is a bidirectional Granger causality; but energy consumption is the total amount of carbon changes Granger causes, and results are not established. Find the relationship of the three to make quantitative analysis on it. The results show that GDP is very important to change the role of energy, but also energy has great influence on the changes of GDP; in addition, energy consumption also impact on carbon emission of energy consumption is very large. The impact of carbon emissions is positive, the impact on China's economy is also positive; the path of economic growth impact on energy consumption and carbon emissions are basically the same, a "symmetric" phenomenon. Therefore, if the government takes the energy conservative policy will indeed reduce the emissions of carbon dioxide levels at the same time, but also has a great impact on the economic growth of our country. If only to reduce economic growth for reducing carbon emissions, there is a certain effect in the early, but the effect lasted for a short time and in the late rebound significantly. Therefore, only to ensure that the adjustment of industrial structure under the premise of economic growth, in order to to realize China's healthy economic development, low carbon. At last, this paper uses different models of three variables were predicted, compared to find the optimal results. Secondly, this paper on China's carbon emissions, energy consumption Analysis of the industrial structure. And mainly through the energy consumption and carbon emissions in the industry data into the traditional input-output table, and in 2010 for the base period price deflator index, China's 2005-2012 value of "carbon emissions" input-output table, and analyzes China's economy during this period, the internal structure of energy with the carbon emissions from 2012. The results show that the pulling effect of the second Department of the national economy is obvious, and with high carbon, high yield and production industries; three departments in the transportation industry, the characteristics of other departments with low industry driven, low carbon push based, but for the whole economy the limitation of growth is small. From the overall trend of 2005-2012 years, China's energy consumption increased year by year, and the coal based energy consumption structure, little change. But the energy intensity of each department stage decreased, while the three production department of strong energy In this period basically go flat. Nearly ten years of China's overall energy related technology continues to progress, and constantly improve the utilization rate of energy. From the energy consumption coefficient, both direct energy consumption coefficient or the comprehensive energy consumption coefficient, ranked as the second sector. Two of China's carbon emissions the total amount of 2005-2012 increased rapidly, but most sectors of the carbon intensity decreased, indicating that China's economic "low-carbon development" the overall trend is good. From the influence factor of the industry, industrial influence coefficient and carbon during 2005-2012 most sector row influence coefficient both declined, but the overall impact of third sectors rose slightly either influence or industrial carbon emissions influence, pulling effect of second sectors (compared to the average level of society) are far higher than the first, the third industry sectors, but with more resource intensive The main industry. To sum up the second industry in the period of 2005-2012 is still the pillar industry of our country, but the third industry driven by the overall economy has gradually emerged and has a tendency to expand. By considering the influence of industrial carbon emission and the influence coefficient, China should give priority to the development of low carbon power industry; promote the high carbon emissions. These high industry affecting the scientific development of "double high" sector, mainly through the improvement of the technical aspects of the industry to reduce the carbon emission limits; high carbon emissions influence the development of low industry influence in these sectors, and through industrial upgrading and structural adjustment to eliminate the backward production capacity. Finally, to construct an optimization model of low carbon economy the country's total forecast and industrial structure. Based on the above purpose is to ensure that the current economic growth, energy consumption and carbon emission level, find the optimal industrial structure of our country in 2017. The most optimal solution Can make the maximum output, and compared to the base year (2012) the decline in energy intensity 26.04%, carbon intensity decreased 48.95%. and then in the above basis limit on the optimization model of carbon emission to join the policy of "reduction" conditions. Compared with the optimization results above, in order to meet the minimum economic growth under the new scheme. Can make the carbon emission and then decreased about 22%. then based on environmental DEA model is evaluated on the 41 departments of our country environmental performance, establish the dynamic index of environmental efficiency and decomposed, found during 2005-2012, China's number of sectors is non DEA effective, the main problem lies in the amount of energy input. Part of the energy industry investment is too large, the energy consumption structure is not reasonable. In addition, the second sector has the greatest impact on the overall efficiency of China's environment, the main reason of 2005-2007 phase of its lack of efficiency Is the low level of technology; and after 2007 the reason between inefficient allocation of resources at.2005-2012, main factors affecting the environmental efficiency of three production services sector is in the allocation of resources and low efficiency. Decision makers can according to the relationship between carbon emissions and economic growth, combined with the actual situation, the optimal plan of China's industrial planning at the same time. Also according to the Department of DEA efficiency, improved environmental performance level of each industry. Based on the above research results, this paper puts forward the corresponding policy recommendations and outlook for the follow-up study.

【學(xué)位授予單位】：首都經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：博士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2016
【分類號】：F124.5
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本文編號：1421861