【摘要】：目前,建筑行業(yè)的高能耗、高污染、高風(fēng)險等問題已成為制約我國經(jīng)濟(jì)可持續(xù)發(fā)展的瓶頸。如何對項目進(jìn)行風(fēng)險管理,降低潛在風(fēng)險,獲得最大效益,日益引起人們的重視。我國的風(fēng)險管理尚處于初級階段,風(fēng)險評價的測度及定量分析技術(shù)方法研究匱乏,以此為基礎(chǔ)的工程項目的風(fēng)險管理有待進(jìn)一步完善。本文基于現(xiàn)有研究,從風(fēng)險識別、預(yù)測根據(jù)、預(yù)測準(zhǔn)確度評價、風(fēng)險因素的可控性措施等方面進(jìn)一步做了相關(guān)探究。本文在總結(jié)國內(nèi)外項目投資風(fēng)險管理的基礎(chǔ)上,以“德州太陽谷”建設(shè)項目工程為研究對象,綜合運(yùn)用文獻(xiàn)綜合分析法、國內(nèi)及國外對比研究、調(diào)查訪問、借鑒規(guī)范理論四種研究方法,對該項目在投資建設(shè)過程中的風(fēng)險管理進(jìn)行了研究。主要研究內(nèi)容如下：首先,建立風(fēng)險管理體系。結(jié)合德州太陽谷建設(shè)項目投資風(fēng)險的種類多、影響范圍廣、變化大等特點,建立德州太陽谷建設(shè)基于項目管理目標(biāo)和組織的風(fēng)險管理體系。其次,項目風(fēng)險識別。德州太陽谷投資風(fēng)險管理部門結(jié)合工程特點和實際情況,主要采取專家調(diào)查法來分析項目在整個過程中所面臨的風(fēng)險,從施工建設(shè)階段及后期運(yùn)營階段分析風(fēng)險的主要來源。第三,項目風(fēng)險評價。通過得出的項目管理風(fēng)險主要因素,本文利用定性及定量分析方法,包括專家調(diào)查法及模糊綜合評價法等對項目投資風(fēng)險進(jìn)行評價,建立風(fēng)險評價體系,以確定項目整體風(fēng)險水平,并確定項目關(guān)鍵風(fēng)險因素。第四,提出有效的風(fēng)險防范措施。通過對項目進(jìn)行綜合分析和評估后,得出項目風(fēng)險的關(guān)鍵因素,根據(jù)風(fēng)險控制的一般措施,結(jié)合該項目的特點及實際,提出更具針對性的應(yīng)對策略。通過對德州太陽谷建設(shè)項目進(jìn)行全面分析和研究,可以得出：該項目主要存在技術(shù)風(fēng)險、管理風(fēng)險、資金風(fēng)險、材料風(fēng)險以及設(shè)計風(fēng)險這五種投資風(fēng)險,其中設(shè)計風(fēng)險、技術(shù)風(fēng)險以及資金風(fēng)險是影響該項目順利進(jìn)行的關(guān)鍵因素,而管理風(fēng)險和材料風(fēng)險對該項目影響比較小。該項目要根據(jù)項目特點及施工進(jìn)度,從主要影響因素方面提出相應(yīng)的應(yīng)對策略。
[Abstract]:At present, the problems of high energy consumption, high pollution and high risk in the construction industry have become the bottleneck restricting the sustainable development of our economy. How to manage the risk of the project, reduce the potential risk and obtain the maximum benefit has attracted more and more attention. The risk management in our country is still in the primary stage, and the research on the measurement and quantitative analysis of risk assessment is scarce, and the risk management of engineering projects based on it needs to be further improved. Based on the existing research, this paper makes further research on risk identification, prediction basis, prediction accuracy evaluation and controllable measures of risk factors. On the basis of summarizing the risk management of project investment at home and abroad, this paper takes the "Dezhou Sun Valley" construction project as the research object, synthetically uses the literature comprehensive analysis method, the domestic and the foreign contrast research, the investigation visit, This paper studies the risk management of the project in the process of investment and construction by referring to four research methods of normative theory. The main research contents are as follows: first, establish risk management system. According to the characteristics of Dezhou Sun Valley Construction Project, such as the variety of investment risk, the wide range of influence and the great change, the risk management system based on project management objectives and organization is established. Secondly, project risk identification. The risk management department of Taiyang Valley investment in Texas combines the characteristics of the project and the actual situation, mainly adopts the method of expert investigation to analyze the risk in the whole process of the project, and analyzes the main source of the risk from the construction stage and the later stage of operation. Third, project risk evaluation. Through the main factors of project management risk, this paper uses qualitative and quantitative analysis methods, including expert investigation method and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method, to evaluate project investment risk and establish risk evaluation system. To determine the overall risk level of the project and determine key risk factors for the project. Fourth, put forward effective risk prevention measures. Through the comprehensive analysis and evaluation of the project, the key factors of the project risk are obtained. According to the general measures of risk control, combined with the characteristics and practice of the project, more targeted countermeasures are put forward. Through the comprehensive analysis and research on the Taizhou Sun Valley construction project, it can be concluded that there are five kinds of investment risks, including technical risk, management risk, capital risk, material risk and design risk, among which the design risk. The technical risk and the financial risk are the key factors to affect the project, while the management risk and the material risk have little impact on the project. According to the characteristics of the project and the construction schedule, the corresponding countermeasures should be put forward from the main influencing factors.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：中國海洋大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2015
【分類號】：TU71

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