基于概率模型的抗力設計值推斷方法
本文選題:結構設計 切入點:結構試驗 出處:《西安建筑科技大學》2015年碩士論文 論文類型:學位論文
【摘要】:基于試驗的設計方法是國際上提出的新的結構設計方法,它將結構試驗引入具體的設計過程中,通過載荷試驗和統(tǒng)計推斷直接確定設計對象的抗力設計值,具有顯著的實證性,適用于大批量相似構件、復雜結構和新型結構的設計,是目前結構設計方法發(fā)展的重要方向之一。基于分析模型的推斷方法是基于試驗的設計方法的重要內容,是推斷抗力設計值的關鍵方法,它在推斷中利用了抗力分析模型中已知影響因素的概率特性,可在較大程度上減小推斷中的不確定性,得到更優(yōu)的推斷結果。但是國際標準ISO2394:1998中基于分析模型的推斷方法是一種間接的推斷方法,它采用了設計中的分析模型,未能直接反應各影響因素概率特性的影響,故在推斷過程中不能保證抗力設計值具有一致的保證率,不利于對結構可靠度的控制;歐洲規(guī)范EN1990:2002中的方法雖然可在統(tǒng)一的保證率下推斷抗力的設計值,但存在理論上的缺陷,是一種經(jīng)驗性方法,其推斷結果偏于保守,甚至出現(xiàn)抗力設計值為零的情況。目前,國際上尚未很好的解決如何在統(tǒng)一的保證率下,以一種理論基礎嚴密的方法推斷抗力設計值的問題。本文針對目前國際上抗力推斷方法的不足,直接依據(jù)抗力的概率模型,完全按照統(tǒng)計學的方法,提出了基于概率模型的抗力設計值推斷方法。該方法在統(tǒng)一的保證率下,分別針對“計算模式不定性系數(shù)的變異系數(shù)未知”和“計算模式不定性系數(shù)的變異系數(shù)已知”兩種情況提出抗力設計值的推斷公式,不但具有嚴密的理論基礎,而且克服了之前抗力推斷方法的缺點。為了檢驗該方法的適用性,本文首先通過引入一個工程實例,分別利用區(qū)間估計法和文中方法對受彎構件承載力的設計值進行推斷,并對其推斷結果進行分析。然后在相同保證率下,對比了歐洲規(guī)范中方法與本文方法的推斷結果,對比結果表明,基于概率模型的抗力設計值推斷方法不僅符合統(tǒng)計學的一般規(guī)律,且可給出適宜的推斷結果。基于概率模型的抗力推斷方法發(fā)展了基于分析模型的抗力推斷方法,是對目前結構構件抗力推斷方法的一個補充。
[Abstract]:The design method based on test is a new structural design method put forward in the world. It introduces the structural test into the concrete design process and directly determines the resistance design value of the design object through load test and statistical inference. It is one of the most important directions in the development of structural design methods to apply to the design of large quantities of similar components, complex structures and new structures. The inference method based on analytical model is an important part of the experimental design method. It is a key method to infer the design value of resistance. It makes use of the probability characteristics of known factors in the model of resistance analysis, which can reduce the uncertainty in inference to a large extent. But the inference method based on analytical model in the international standard ISO2394:1998 is an indirect inference method, which adopts the analysis model in the design, and fails to directly reflect the influence of the probability characteristics of each influence factor. Therefore, in the process of inference, the design value of resistance can not be guaranteed consistently, which is not conducive to the control of structural reliability. Although the method in European Specification EN1990:2002 can infer the design value of resistance under the unified guarantee rate, it has some theoretical defects. It is an empirical method, whose inference results are conservative, and even the resistance design value is zero. At present, the international community has not solved the problem well under the unified guarantee rate. The problem of inferring the design value of resistance by a method with a strict theoretical basis is discussed in this paper. In view of the deficiency of the present method of resistance inference in the world, the method is directly based on the probability model of resistance and is completely in accordance with the statistical method. A method of inferring resistance design value based on probabilistic model is proposed. In the case of "unknown coefficient of variation of uncertain coefficient of calculation mode" and "coefficient of variation of uncertain coefficient of calculation mode known", the inferring formulas of resistance design value are put forward respectively, which not only have a strict theoretical foundation, In order to test the applicability of the method, an engineering example is introduced to infer the design value of the bearing capacity of flexural members by using interval estimation method and the method in this paper, respectively. Then, under the same guarantee rate, the inferred results of the methods in European norms and the methods in this paper are compared, and the comparison results show that, The inference method of resistance design value based on probabilistic model not only accords with the general rule of statistics, but also gives the appropriate inferential result. The resistance inference method based on probabilistic model has developed the resistance inference method based on analytical model. It is a supplement to the current method of estimating the resistance of structural members.
【學位授予單位】:西安建筑科技大學
【學位級別】:碩士
【學位授予年份】:2015
【分類號】:TU317
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