【摘要】：丹尼爾·格羅斯(2008)回顧美國(guó)160多年的投資泡沫演變史,發(fā)現(xiàn)投資泡沫對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響具有兩面性,短期對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)的負(fù)面影響較為突出,但是從長(zhǎng)期來(lái)看,資本的快速累積會(huì)推動(dòng)技術(shù)進(jìn)步,在一定程度促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展。在當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)下,投資泡沫對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的負(fù)面影響較為突出,但如果從長(zhǎng)期和唯物辯證的角度來(lái)看,投資泡沫也有可能具有正反效應(yīng)。丹尼爾·格羅斯從宏觀上作出了解釋,那么對(duì)于微觀主體之一的上市企業(yè),投資泡沫是否也會(huì)對(duì)其業(yè)績(jī)產(chǎn)生積極的影響呢?本文選取中國(guó)A股市場(chǎng)醫(yī)藥制造業(yè)、汽車制造業(yè)等行業(yè)的樣本數(shù)據(jù),分析在投資泡沫的不同時(shí)期,行業(yè)中各家上市企業(yè)業(yè)績(jī)的演變進(jìn)程,一方面希望借此分析這些優(yōu)質(zhì)上市企業(yè)的成功經(jīng)驗(yàn),另一方面希望通過(guò)分析探索上市公司股票價(jià)值投資決策的內(nèi)在邏輯。文章引入產(chǎn)出與資本投入的比值作為資本產(chǎn)出效率,用來(lái)衡量企業(yè)對(duì)資本的運(yùn)營(yíng)水平。認(rèn)為市場(chǎng)上發(fā)生投資泡沫的時(shí)候,公司的資本投入會(huì)增加,如果企業(yè)資本投入導(dǎo)致研發(fā)投入增加或者進(jìn)入新的行業(yè)則可能引起公司資本產(chǎn)出曲線的向上移動(dòng),因此當(dāng)投資泡沫破滅,企業(yè)的資本投入回到原來(lái)水平的時(shí)候公司的資本產(chǎn)出效率不會(huì)回到原有水平,而是會(huì)有實(shí)質(zhì)性提升。為了驗(yàn)證中國(guó)A股市場(chǎng)上是否存在投資泡沫發(fā)生以后資本產(chǎn)出效率提升的公司,本文選取凈資產(chǎn)收益率、總資產(chǎn)收益率和營(yíng)業(yè)凈利潤(rùn)率作為衡量資本產(chǎn)出效率的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)。通過(guò)F-O模型找出中國(guó)A股市場(chǎng)存在泡沫的年份,找出投資泡沫發(fā)生轉(zhuǎn)折的時(shí)點(diǎn)作為研究的基準(zhǔn)時(shí)點(diǎn),篩選A股市場(chǎng)符合條件的樣本企業(yè),分析投資泡沫演變過(guò)程中樣本企業(yè)的業(yè)績(jī)變化,并同行業(yè)平均值進(jìn)行對(duì)比,進(jìn)而論證投資泡沫發(fā)生以后有些企業(yè)表現(xiàn)得比同行業(yè)其他公司更好。實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示投資泡沫發(fā)生以后有些企業(yè)的競(jìng)爭(zhēng)力得到了提升,業(yè)績(jī)表現(xiàn)優(yōu)于同行業(yè),這與投資泡沫期間宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)環(huán)境的變化、公司經(jīng)驗(yàn)管理理念、公司的資本運(yùn)作、投資決策與行為有關(guān)。
[Abstract]:Daniel Gross (2008) reviews the evolution of the investment bubble in the United States for more than 160 years and finds that the impact of the investment bubble on the economy has two sides, and the negative impact on the economy in the short term is more prominent, but in the long run, The rapid accumulation of capital will promote technological progress and promote economic development to a certain extent. In the current economic situation, the negative impact of investment bubble on economic development is more prominent, but if viewed from the long-term and materialistic dialectical point of view, investment bubble may also have a positive and negative effect. Daniel Gross explained from the macro point of view, so for one of the main micro-listed companies, the investment bubble will also have a positive impact on their performance? This paper selects the sample data of Chinese A share market, such as pharmaceutical manufacturing, automobile manufacturing and so on, to analyze the evolution process of the performance of each listed enterprise in the industry during the different periods of investment bubble. On the one hand, we hope to analyze the successful experiences of these high quality listed enterprises, on the other hand, we hope to explore the inherent logic of the stock value investment decision of listed companies. In this paper, the ratio of output to capital input is introduced as the efficiency of capital output, which is used to measure the level of capital operation. It is believed that when there is an investment bubble in the market, the company's capital investment will increase. If the enterprise capital investment leads to an increase in R & D investment or entering a new industry, it may cause the upward movement of the company's capital output curve. Therefore, when the investment bubble burst and the capital investment of the enterprise returned to the original level, the efficiency of the company's capital output will not return to the original level, but there will be substantial improvement. In order to verify whether there are companies with higher efficiency of capital output after the emergence of the investment bubble in China's A-share market, this paper selects the return on net assets, the return on total assets and the net operating profit rate as the financial indicators to measure the efficiency of capital output. Through the F-O model to find out the year when the A-share market bubble exists, to find out the turning point of the investment bubble as the benchmark point of study, and to screen the sample enterprises that meet the requirements of A-share market. This paper analyzes the performance changes of sample enterprises in the process of investment bubble evolution, and compares with the average of the industry, and then proves that some enterprises perform better than other companies in the same industry after the investment bubble occurs. The empirical results show that the competitiveness of some enterprises has been improved after the emergence of the investment bubble, and their performance is superior to that of the same industry, which is related to the changes in the macroeconomic environment during the investment bubble, the concept of corporate experience management, and the capital operation of the company. Investment decisions are related to behavior.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：云南財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.51;F272.5

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本文編號(hào)：2359164