【摘要】：一國國際收支平衡表及其構成不僅反映了這個國家目前所處的國際收支發(fā)展階段,還反映出一國的資源z賦、競爭力所在以及對外經濟開放程度等.國際收支結構、階段演變以及影響因素等問題研究有重要的現實意義和學術價值.本文首先基于傳統(tǒng)"國際收支階段假說",對國際收支階段影響因素進行了機理分析;其次,根據國際收支發(fā)展階段,對全球50個國家1998-2014年的國際收支數據進行階段的實際劃分;最后,在上述研究基礎上引入有序logistic回歸模型對國際收支階段演變的影響因素進行實證分析.實證結果表明:第一,人均GDP對國際收支階段演變具有顯著的正向作用,這符合Crowther的國際收支階段假說;第二,金融深化程度(M2/GDP)對國際收支階段演變具有顯著的正向作用,實際有效匯率指數對國際收支階段演變具有顯著的負向作用,這兩個變量的顯著性在已有文獻中并未出現,是本文重要的創(chuàng)新和貢獻點.
[Abstract]:A country's balance of payments and its composition not only reflect the development stage of international balance of payments, but also reflect a country's resources, competitiveness and the degree of foreign economic openness. It is of great practical significance and academic value to study the structure of balance of payments, the evolution of stages and the influencing factors. Firstly, based on the traditional "balance of payments stage hypothesis", this paper analyzes the mechanism of the factors affecting the balance of payments stage. Secondly, according to the development stage of the balance of payments, the actual division of the balance of payments data of 50 countries in the world from 1998 to 2014 is carried out. Finally, based on the above research, an ordered logistic regression model is introduced to analyze the influencing factors of the evolution of the balance of payments. The empirical results show that: first, per capita GDP has a significant positive effect on the evolution of the balance-of-payments stage, which is in line with the Crowther hypothesis of the balance-of-payments stage; Second, the degree of financial deepening (M2/GDP) has a significant positive effect on the evolution of the balance of payments stage, and the real effective exchange rate index has a significant negative effect on the evolution of the balance of payments stage. The significance of these two variables is not found in the existing literature and is an important innovation and contribution point in this paper.
【作者單位】： 中國科學院大學經濟與管理學院;中國科學院虛擬經濟與數據科學研究中心;
【基金】：國家自然科學基金(71273257,71532013) 國家留學基金~~
【分類號】：F746;F831

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