【摘要】：自2005年7月21日中國人民銀行宣布對人民幣匯率制度進行改革,實行“以市場供求為基礎,參考一籃子貨幣進行調(diào)節(jié)、有管理的”浮動匯率制度以來,人民幣不在單一釘住美元。伴隨著人民幣匯率波動性的增強,我國跨境國際資本流動也呈現(xiàn)出了新態(tài)勢�？缇迟Y本流動憑借其波動性強、方向易逆轉、規(guī)模龐大等特性,對我國經(jīng)濟的發(fā)展和金融市場的穩(wěn)定產(chǎn)生了巨大影響。特別是自2015年8月11日中國人民銀行調(diào)整人民幣匯率中間價形成機制至今,我國的外匯儲備資產(chǎn)出現(xiàn)大幅度減少,跨境資本流出顯著且規(guī)模巨大,學界針對匯率波動、外匯儲備資產(chǎn)減少、跨境資本流出和資本項目的開放展開了一系列討論,對這一形勢背后的原因進行了深刻的思考�；诖�,對我國跨境資本流動及其影響因素進行深入研究和分析具有十分重要的意義。本文對我國跨境國際資本流動的規(guī)模及其影響因素進行了較為全面和系統(tǒng)的研究。第一,結合當前現(xiàn)實分析了本文關于我國跨境資本流動規(guī)模以及影響因素研究的選題背景和意義,并梳理和總結已有的研究成果,提出了本文的研究目的及創(chuàng)新。第二,結合靜態(tài)數(shù)據(jù),從國內(nèi)和國外、官方和私人多個角度,對我國當前跨境資本大規(guī)模流出的形式進行了初步分析;第三,對我國跨境國際資本的進出入渠道和估算方法進行了比較和分析和比較,從國際收支平衡表入手,梳理了直接估算法和間接估算法之間的邏輯關系,提出了本文的測算公式并使用間接法測算了2000年1月至2016年12月我國跨境國際資本的流動規(guī)模;第四,從動態(tài)層面,采用了普通最小二乘法、VAR模型對影響我國跨境資本流動規(guī)模的因素進行分析并得出了相關結論,其中還對2010年6月至2016年12月影響我國跨境資本流出的因素進行了著重分析。第五,總結前文的主要研究內(nèi)容,針對我國跨境國際資本的流動現(xiàn)實及其變動趨勢作出估計和判斷;參考前文靜態(tài)數(shù)據(jù)分析和動態(tài)實證分析的結果,提出相關政策建議。本文的研究結果表明,影響我國跨境國際資本流動規(guī)模的因素眾多,不同時期跨境國際資本的流動呈現(xiàn)出不同的特點。在眾多影響中國跨境國際資本流動的因素當中,人民幣匯率、利率、中國房地產(chǎn)景氣指數(shù)的作用較強,而股票價格指數(shù)波動與我國跨境國際資本流動之間存在反向變動關系。而當前驅動我國跨境國際資本的大規(guī)模流出的因素,既有內(nèi)因又有外因。經(jīng)濟下行壓力、資本項目的進一步開放,導致境內(nèi)居民海外配資規(guī)模擴大;美國經(jīng)濟的全面復蘇,也刺激了境內(nèi)外資和境內(nèi)內(nèi)資的外流;而2015年“8·11”匯改之后人民幣匯率大幅度貶值也成為跨境國際資本流動的重要原因,特別是人民銀行的外匯市場操作,更直接導致了我國以外匯儲備為估算基礎的跨境國際資本的大規(guī)模流出。
[Abstract]:Since July 21, 2005, when the people's Bank of China announced the reform of the RMB exchange rate system, it has implemented a floating exchange rate system "based on market supply and demand, with reference to a basket of currencies." The yuan is not pegged to the dollar alone. With the increasing volatility of RMB exchange rate, China's cross-border international capital flows have also taken on a new trend. Cross-border capital flow has great influence on the development of Chinese economy and the stability of financial market because of its characteristics of strong volatility, easy to reverse, large scale and so on. Especially since August 11, 2015, when the people's Bank of China adjusted the formation mechanism of RMB exchange rate, the foreign exchange reserve assets of our country have been greatly reduced, the cross-border capital outflow is significant and the scale is huge, the academic circles aim at the exchange rate fluctuation. A series of discussions have been carried out on the reduction of foreign exchange reserve assets, cross-border capital outflow and the opening of capital account, and the reasons behind this situation have been deeply considered. Based on this, it is of great significance to study and analyze the cross-border capital flow and its influencing factors in China. This paper makes a comprehensive and systematic study on the scale and influencing factors of cross-border international capital flows in China. First, this paper analyzes the background and significance of the research on the scale of cross-border capital flow and its influencing factors, combs and summarizes the existing research results, and puts forward the purpose and innovation of this paper. Second, combined with static data, from the domestic and foreign, official and private perspectives, the current form of large-scale cross-border capital outflow in China has been preliminarily analyzed. Third, This paper compares, analyzes and compares the channels and methods of entering and going into and out of cross-border international capital in China, starting with the balance of payments, combing the logical relationship between direct estimation and indirect estimation. This paper puts forward the calculation formula and uses indirect method to calculate the scale of cross-border international capital flow from January 2000 to December 2016. Fourth, from the dynamic level, This paper analyzes the factors that affect the scale of cross-border capital flow in China by using the ordinary least square method (VAR) model and draws the relevant conclusions. The factors that affect the cross-border capital outflow from June 2010 to December 2016 are also analyzed emphatically. Fifthly, summarize the main research contents above, estimate and judge the reality of cross-border international capital flow and its changing trend in China, and put forward relevant policy recommendations with reference to the results of static data analysis and dynamic empirical analysis. The results show that there are many factors affecting the scale of cross-border international capital flows in China, and different characteristics of cross-border international capital flows in different periods. Among the factors that influence China's cross-border international capital flow, RMB exchange rate, interest rate and China real estate boom index play a strong role, while the volatility of stock price index has a reverse relationship with the cross-border international capital flow of China. At present, there are both internal and external factors driving the large-scale outflow of cross-border international capital in China. The downward pressure of the economy and the further opening of the capital account have led to the expansion of the overseas allocation scale of domestic residents, and the overall recovery of the US economy has also stimulated the outflow of foreign and domestic capital at home and abroad. And after the "11 August" exchange rate reform in 2015, the RMB exchange rate also became a major reason for cross-border international capital flows, especially the operation of the people's Bank of China's foreign exchange market. It directly leads to a large outflow of cross-border international capital based on foreign exchange reserves.
【學位授予單位】：江西財經(jīng)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6

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