匯率因素在中國對東盟直接投資中的作用——理論與實證研究
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-30 14:59
【摘要】：東盟國家是中國企業(yè)對外直接投資的主要目的地。為了更好地研究匯率如何影響中國對東盟的直接投資,構建了一個理論模型。研究結論為:人民幣升值會增加中國對東盟的直接投資,匯率波動幅度的增大會阻礙中國對東盟的直接投資,預期匯率升值不利于市場尋求型對外直接投資。選取了東盟國家2005—2014年相關數(shù)據(jù),運用固定效應模型和差分GMM動態(tài)面板模型進行回歸分析,實證結果顯示:匯率水平、預期匯率因素與理論模型預測符號一致且顯著,而匯率波動的影響與模型預測一致但并不顯著。
[Abstract]:ASEAN countries are the main destinations for Chinese enterprises to invest in foreign direct investment (OFDI). In order to better study how the exchange rate affects China's direct investment in ASEAN, a theoretical model is constructed. The conclusions are as follows: the appreciation of RMB will increase China's direct investment in ASEAN, the increase of exchange rate fluctuation will hinder China's direct investment in ASEAN, and the expected appreciation of exchange rate will be unfavorable to market seeking foreign direct investment. Using the fixed effect model and the differential GMM dynamic panel model to analyze the relevant data of ASEAN countries from 2005 to 2014, the empirical results show that the level of exchange rate, the factor of expected exchange rate is consistent with the prediction symbol of theoretical model and is significant. The effect of exchange rate fluctuations is consistent with the model forecast, but not significant.
【作者單位】： 北京外國語大學國際商學院;中國社會科學院財經(jīng)戰(zhàn)略研究院;
【基金】：中央高�；究蒲袑ｍ椊�(jīng)費資助項目(2009JJ029) 北京外國語大學基本科研業(yè)務費專項資金資助 北京市社會科學基金項目(15JGB059)
【分類號】：F832.6
[Abstract]:ASEAN countries are the main destinations for Chinese enterprises to invest in foreign direct investment (OFDI). In order to better study how the exchange rate affects China's direct investment in ASEAN, a theoretical model is constructed. The conclusions are as follows: the appreciation of RMB will increase China's direct investment in ASEAN, the increase of exchange rate fluctuation will hinder China's direct investment in ASEAN, and the expected appreciation of exchange rate will be unfavorable to market seeking foreign direct investment. Using the fixed effect model and the differential GMM dynamic panel model to analyze the relevant data of ASEAN countries from 2005 to 2014, the empirical results show that the level of exchange rate, the factor of expected exchange rate is consistent with the prediction symbol of theoretical model and is significant. The effect of exchange rate fluctuations is consistent with the model forecast, but not significant.
【作者單位】： 北京外國語大學國際商學院;中國社會科學院財經(jīng)戰(zhàn)略研究院;
【基金】：中央高�；究蒲袑ｍ椊�(jīng)費資助項目(2009JJ029) 北京外國語大學基本科研業(yè)務費專項資金資助 北京市社會科學基金項目(15JGB059)
【分類號】：F832.6
【參考文獻】
相關期刊論文 前6條
1 項義軍;崔o坻，
本文編號：2213423
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