發(fā)布時間：2018-08-16 10:24

【摘要】：文章通過VAR模型分析美國量化寬松貨幣政策退出對中國宏觀經(jīng)濟的影響,并運用月度宏觀經(jīng)濟數(shù)據(jù)從短期資本流動角度進行了實證分析。研究結果表明,美國量化寬松貨幣政策的退出對中國短期資本流動不產(chǎn)生直接影響,匯率和利率指標也不是影響中國短期資本流動的顯著因素,控制M2的增長率是減少美國量化寬松貨幣政策退出對中國經(jīng)濟沖擊的最核心指標。美國退出量化寬松貨幣政策將會從通貨膨脹、貨幣供給、宏觀經(jīng)濟波動對中國經(jīng)濟造成一定影響,通過研究美國量化寬松政策退出,探討美國貨幣政策變動與中國資本流動的聯(lián)動性,致力于在復雜的中美經(jīng)濟關系和美國金融環(huán)境變化下,提出有利于中國短期資本市場穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的貨幣政策建議。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the impact of the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy on China's macro economy through VAR model, and makes an empirical analysis from the perspective of short-term capital flow using monthly macroeconomic data. The results show that the withdrawal of the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States has no direct impact on China's short-term capital flows, and the exchange rate and interest rate indicators are not significant factors affecting China's short-term capital flows. Controlling M2 growth is the core indicator of reducing the impact of the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy on China's economy. The withdrawal of the US monetary policy from quantitative easing will have a certain impact on the Chinese economy from inflation, money supply, and macroeconomic fluctuations. This paper probes into the linkage between the changes of American monetary policy and the capital flow of China, and puts forward some suggestions for the stable development of China's short-term capital market under the complicated Sino-US economic relations and the changes of American financial environment.
【作者單位】： 東北財經(jīng)大學金融學院;
【分類號】：F827.12;F124

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本文編號：2185698