【摘要】：文章通過(guò)VAR模型分析美國(guó)量化寬松貨幣政策退出對(duì)中國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響,并運(yùn)用月度宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù)從短期資本流動(dòng)角度進(jìn)行了實(shí)證分析。研究結(jié)果表明,美國(guó)量化寬松貨幣政策的退出對(duì)中國(guó)短期資本流動(dòng)不產(chǎn)生直接影響,匯率和利率指標(biāo)也不是影響中國(guó)短期資本流動(dòng)的顯著因素,控制M2的增長(zhǎng)率是減少美國(guó)量化寬松貨幣政策退出對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)沖擊的最核心指標(biāo)。美國(guó)退出量化寬松貨幣政策將會(huì)從通貨膨脹、貨幣供給、宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動(dòng)對(duì)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)造成一定影響,通過(guò)研究美國(guó)量化寬松政策退出,探討美國(guó)貨幣政策變動(dòng)與中國(guó)資本流動(dòng)的聯(lián)動(dòng)性,致力于在復(fù)雜的中美經(jīng)濟(jì)關(guān)系和美國(guó)金融環(huán)境變化下,提出有利于中國(guó)短期資本市場(chǎng)穩(wěn)定發(fā)展的貨幣政策建議。
[Abstract]:This paper analyzes the impact of the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy on China's macro economy through VAR model, and makes an empirical analysis from the perspective of short-term capital flow using monthly macroeconomic data. The results show that the withdrawal of the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States has no direct impact on China's short-term capital flows, and the exchange rate and interest rate indicators are not significant factors affecting China's short-term capital flows. Controlling M2 growth is the core indicator of reducing the impact of the withdrawal of quantitative easing monetary policy on China's economy. The withdrawal of the US monetary policy from quantitative easing will have a certain impact on the Chinese economy from inflation, money supply, and macroeconomic fluctuations. This paper probes into the linkage between the changes of American monetary policy and the capital flow of China, and puts forward some suggestions for the stable development of China's short-term capital market under the complicated Sino-US economic relations and the changes of American financial environment.
【作者單位】： 東北財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)金融學(xué)院;
【分類號(hào)】：F827.12;F124

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