論中國的“金融超發(fā)展”
發(fā)布時間：2018-08-10 19:55
【摘要】：金融對經濟發(fā)展的正面作用毋庸置疑,但若金融發(fā)展超過實體經濟發(fā)展達到一定程度時,是否反而會對經濟增長產生負的影響?針對這一問題,本文提出了"金融超發(fā)展"的概念,意指當金融部門發(fā)展相對于實體部門發(fā)展"超"過一定程度,會帶來資源的次優(yōu)配置,并容易引發(fā)系統(tǒng)性風險,不利于經濟的增長。通過修正的AK模型,本文對"金融超發(fā)展"的機理進行了闡述,并選取不同區(qū)間的中國省級面板數據,采用一階差分廣義矩估計(FD-GMM)方法對中國是否存在"金融超發(fā)展"現象進行了分析。實證研究的結果發(fā)現,在控制了影響經濟增長的其他因素之后,金融發(fā)展對于經濟增長的影響是非線性的。若金融部門超過實體部門發(fā)展達到一定程度時,會對經濟增長產生負的影響作用。
[Abstract]:There is no doubt about the positive effect of finance on economic development, but if the financial development exceeds the real economic development to a certain extent, will it have a negative impact on economic growth? In order to solve this problem, this paper puts forward the concept of "financial super development", which means that when the financial sector develops to a certain extent relative to the real sector, it will bring about sub-optimal allocation of resources and lead to systemic risks. It's not good for economic growth. Through the modified AK model, this paper expounds the mechanism of "financial super development", and selects the provincial panel data of different regions in China. The first order differential generalized moment estimation (FD-GMM) is used to analyze the existence of "financial superdevelopment" in China. The empirical results show that the financial development has a nonlinear effect on economic growth after controlling the other factors that affect economic growth. If the financial sector exceeds the real sector to a certain extent, it will have a negative impact on economic growth.
【作者單位】： 武漢大學經濟與管理學院;
【基金】：教育部哲學社會科學研究重大課題“經濟發(fā)展新常態(tài)下我國貨幣政策體系建設研究”(項目編號:15JZD013)的資助
【分類號】：F124;F832
本文編號：2176034
[Abstract]:There is no doubt about the positive effect of finance on economic development, but if the financial development exceeds the real economic development to a certain extent, will it have a negative impact on economic growth? In order to solve this problem, this paper puts forward the concept of "financial super development", which means that when the financial sector develops to a certain extent relative to the real sector, it will bring about sub-optimal allocation of resources and lead to systemic risks. It's not good for economic growth. Through the modified AK model, this paper expounds the mechanism of "financial super development", and selects the provincial panel data of different regions in China. The first order differential generalized moment estimation (FD-GMM) is used to analyze the existence of "financial superdevelopment" in China. The empirical results show that the financial development has a nonlinear effect on economic growth after controlling the other factors that affect economic growth. If the financial sector exceeds the real sector to a certain extent, it will have a negative impact on economic growth.
【作者單位】： 武漢大學經濟與管理學院;
【基金】：教育部哲學社會科學研究重大課題“經濟發(fā)展新常態(tài)下我國貨幣政策體系建設研究”(項目編號:15JZD013)的資助
【分類號】：F124;F832
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