【摘要】：長(zhǎng)期以來(lái),山西省“一煤獨(dú)大”的局面難以改變,“資源依賴(lài)型”的經(jīng)濟(jì)使得山西省的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展道路越來(lái)越窄,經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)嚴(yán)重失調(diào)、生態(tài)環(huán)境遭到破壞、各種安全事故頻發(fā)等各種問(wèn)題逐漸暴漏,經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展嚴(yán)重下滑,2015年,山西省的國(guó)內(nèi)生產(chǎn)總值位列全國(guó)倒數(shù)第八,但是山西省的儲(chǔ)蓄余額以及儲(chǔ)蓄率卻比較高,截至2015年底,山西省的儲(chǔ)蓄余額已經(jīng)達(dá)到了5631.79億元人民幣,人均儲(chǔ)蓄為4178.64元,改革開(kāi)放以來(lái),山西省的儲(chǔ)蓄率平均每年為46%,并且儲(chǔ)蓄余額以年均15%的速度在不斷增長(zhǎng),為經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展提供了充足的資金來(lái)源,為山西省資本形成率的提高奠定了基礎(chǔ)。與儲(chǔ)蓄相比,投資額和投資率卻相對(duì)較低,本文用社會(huì)融資規(guī)模指標(biāo)衡量山西省的投資及投資率概況,該指標(biāo)數(shù)據(jù)表明,截至2015年年底,山西省的社會(huì)融資規(guī)模為3048億元,投資率僅為23.88%,近年來(lái),煤炭經(jīng)濟(jì)逐漸衰落,加上山西省處于內(nèi)陸省份,投資項(xiàng)目較沿海地區(qū)要少得多,又由于居民的消費(fèi)水平較低,收入差距大等間接原因,使得山西省儲(chǔ)蓄和投資之間的差額變大,轉(zhuǎn)化效率低。2010年,山西省“綜改試驗(yàn)區(qū)”的設(shè)立,為山西省的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展帶來(lái)了良好的機(jī)遇,因此,山西省要發(fā)揮好示范作用,調(diào)整產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu),培育新興產(chǎn)業(yè)發(fā)展,借助“綜改區(qū)”的政治條件,加快產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型的步伐,培育新的投資熱點(diǎn)的形成,為其他資源型地區(qū)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展提供一定的發(fā)展經(jīng)驗(yàn)。本文以此為背景,首先對(duì)儲(chǔ)蓄和投資的相關(guān)理論進(jìn)行綜述,包括儲(chǔ)蓄和投資的概念、轉(zhuǎn)化機(jī)制以及不同經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)派的理論觀點(diǎn)。其次,研究?jī)?chǔ)蓄-投資的時(shí)間序列數(shù)據(jù),并通過(guò)計(jì)算儲(chǔ)蓄率、儲(chǔ)蓄增長(zhǎng)率、投資率等指標(biāo)對(duì)山西省儲(chǔ)蓄和投資的概況進(jìn)行介紹,并在此基礎(chǔ)上,進(jìn)一步計(jì)算儲(chǔ)蓄缺口和儲(chǔ)蓄投資轉(zhuǎn)化率,通過(guò)這兩個(gè)指標(biāo)對(duì)儲(chǔ)蓄-投資的轉(zhuǎn)化現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析,得出二者轉(zhuǎn)化率較低的結(jié)論。再次,通過(guò)平穩(wěn)性檢驗(yàn)、協(xié)整檢驗(yàn)、誤差修正模型對(duì)儲(chǔ)蓄-投資的相關(guān)關(guān)系進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,同時(shí),通過(guò)此實(shí)證分析方法研究山西省投資的增加對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的影響。實(shí)證分析結(jié)果表明,第一,山西省儲(chǔ)蓄和投資存在長(zhǎng)期均衡的關(guān)系,二者的相關(guān)系數(shù)為0.46。第二,短期的誤差修正模型對(duì)二者的長(zhǎng)期均衡關(guān)系有所修正,并且短期內(nèi),儲(chǔ)蓄每增加一個(gè)單位,投資增加0.003843個(gè)單位,儲(chǔ)蓄和投資互為對(duì)方的格蘭杰原因,這個(gè)結(jié)論為提高儲(chǔ)蓄-投資轉(zhuǎn)化率提供了實(shí)證基礎(chǔ),也是制定宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)政策的基礎(chǔ)。第三,投資和經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的三個(gè)度量指標(biāo)之間存在正相關(guān)關(guān)系,這三個(gè)指標(biāo)分別為人均GDP、人均消費(fèi)、人均資本,儲(chǔ)蓄和三者的相關(guān)系數(shù)分別為:0.7861、0.8547、0.7725,說(shuō)明投資的增加會(huì)促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)的增長(zhǎng),因而,要促進(jìn)儲(chǔ)蓄向投資的高效率轉(zhuǎn)化,完善二者的轉(zhuǎn)化機(jī)制。本文的創(chuàng)新點(diǎn)就在于研究范圍的特殊性,本文研究?jī)?chǔ)蓄-投資的區(qū)域轉(zhuǎn)化問(wèn)題,實(shí)用性和可操作性較強(qiáng),而現(xiàn)有的文獻(xiàn)主要是以全國(guó)或者某一地區(qū)的儲(chǔ)蓄投資狀況為研究背景,研究結(jié)論不能籠統(tǒng)地應(yīng)用到某個(gè)省份的實(shí)際操作中。文章的不足之處就是由于數(shù)據(jù)資料的有限性,有些數(shù)據(jù)指標(biāo)使用其他的指標(biāo)替代,可能會(huì)產(chǎn)生一定的誤差,影響研究結(jié)果的準(zhǔn)確性。通過(guò)本文的研究,主要解決一下幾個(gè)問(wèn)題:第一:研究山西省儲(chǔ)蓄-投資轉(zhuǎn)化的效率。第二:探索阻礙山西省儲(chǔ)蓄向投資轉(zhuǎn)化的原因。第三,為提高儲(chǔ)蓄-投資轉(zhuǎn)化效率提出政策建議。
[Abstract]:For a long time, the situation of "one coal independence big" in Shanxi is difficult to change. The economy of "resource dependent" economy makes the economic development road of Shanxi province more and more narrow, the economic structure is seriously maladjusted, the ecological environment is destroyed, various kinds of safety accidents have been leaked gradually, the economic development has fallen seriously. In 2015, the domestic birth of Shanxi Province The total output value ranks the eighth in the country, but the savings balance and saving rate of Shanxi province are relatively high. By the end of 2015, the savings balance in Shanxi has reached 563 billion 179 million yuan, and the per capita savings is 4178.64 yuan. Since the reform and opening up, the savings rate of Shanxi province is 46% per year, and the savings balance is at an annual rate of 15%. Continuous growth has provided a sufficient source of capital for the development of the economy and laid the foundation for the increase in the rate of capital formation in Shanxi province. Compared with savings, the investment and investment rate are relatively low. This paper uses the social financing scale to measure the investment and investment rate in Shanxi province. The index data show that by the end of 2015, Shanxi province. The scale of the social financing is 304 billion 800 million yuan and the investment rate is only 23.88%. In recent years, the coal economy has gradually declined, and the Shanxi province is in the inland province. The investment projects are much less than the coastal areas, and the indirect reasons such as the low consumption level of the residents and the big income gap make the difference between the savings and investment in Shanxi become larger and the conversion efficiency is low. In 2010, the establishment of the "comprehensive reform test area" in Shanxi province has brought good opportunities for the economic development of Shanxi province. Therefore, Shanxi province should play a good demonstration role, adjust the industrial structure, cultivate the development of new industry, speed up the pace of industrial transformation and cultivate new investment hot spots by means of the political conditions of the "comprehensive reform zone", and cultivate other resources for other resources. Based on this, this paper first summarizes the related theories of savings and investment, including the concept of savings and investment, the transformation mechanism and the theoretical views of different economic schools. Secondly, it studies the time sequence data of savings and investment, and calculates savings rate and savings growth rate by calculating the savings and investment. The investment rate and other indexes are introduced to the general situation of savings and investment in Shanxi province. On this basis, the savings gap and the conversion rate of savings investment are further calculated. Through these two indicators, the transformation of savings and investment is analyzed, and the conclusions of the low conversion rate of the two are obtained. Again, through the stability test, cointegration test, error correction model The relationship between savings and investment is empirically analyzed, and the effect of the increase of investment in Shanxi Province on economic growth is studied by this empirical analysis. The results of empirical analysis show that, first, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between savings and investment in Shanxi Province, the relative number of the two is 0.46. second, and the short-term error correction model is two. The long-term equilibrium relationship has been revised, and in the short term, each additional unit of savings, 0.003843 units of investment, and the Grainger reason for saving and investment each other, this conclusion provides an empirical basis for raising savings investment conversion rate and also the basis for formulating macroeconomic policies. Third, three degrees of investment and economic growth. There is a positive correlation between the quantitative indicators. These three indexes are GDP per capita, per capita consumption, per capita capital, savings and the three factors are respectively: 0.7861,0.8547,0.7725, which indicates that the increase of investment will promote economic growth. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the efficient transformation of savings to investment and improve the transformation mechanism of the two. The point lies in the particularity of the scope of the study. This paper studies the problem of regional transformation of savings and investment, which is more practical and operable. The existing literature is mainly based on the situation of savings and investment in a country or a certain region, and the conclusions can not be applied to the actual operation of a province in general. Due to the limited data data, some data indicators use other indicators instead, may produce certain errors and affect the accuracy of the research results. Through this study, the main solution is to solve several problems: First: To study the efficiency of Shanxi savings and investment transformation. Second: explore the transformation of Shanxi savings into investment. Reasons third. Put forward policy suggestions to improve the efficiency of savings investment transformation.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山西財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F832.22

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本文編號(hào)：2156779