【摘要】：金融穩(wěn)定是貨幣政策重要目標之一,如何科學(xué)測度金融穩(wěn)定并探尋其與貨幣政策其他目標是否存在協(xié)調(diào)和協(xié)調(diào)共存最優(yōu)區(qū)間有著重要的意義.選取2005.7-2015.6年數(shù)據(jù)從金融系統(tǒng)平穩(wěn)運行和金融系統(tǒng)風險承受能力兩個方面構(gòu)建適合我國國情的金融穩(wěn)定指標評價體系進行測度,揭示我國金融穩(wěn)定先降后升的歷史規(guī)律.并以金融穩(wěn)定指數(shù)為門限變量,構(gòu)建貨幣政策多目標門限模型,通過門限效應(yīng)分析發(fā)現(xiàn)我國金融穩(wěn)定與貨幣政策其他目標存在可協(xié)調(diào)性,金融穩(wěn)定指數(shù)的最優(yōu)目標區(qū)間為[7.23‰,8.57‰].為完善我國宏觀調(diào)控政策,可將金融穩(wěn)定納入到當前的貨幣政策調(diào)控目標體系中,加強貨幣政策和宏觀審慎政策的聯(lián)合,避免系統(tǒng)性金融風險積累引發(fā)的社會經(jīng)濟異常波動.
[Abstract]:Financial stability is one of the important objectives of monetary policy. It is of great significance to measure financial stability scientifically and to find out whether there is an optimal range of coordination and coexistence between financial stability and other objectives of monetary policy. The data of 2005.7-2015.6 are selected to construct a financial stability index evaluation system suitable for China's national conditions from two aspects: the smooth operation of the financial system and the risk bearing capacity of the financial system, so as to reveal the historical law of financial stability falling first and then rising. Taking the financial stability index as the threshold variable, this paper constructs a multi-objective threshold model of monetary policy, and finds out that the financial stability of our country can be coordinated with other objectives of monetary policy through the threshold effect analysis. The optimal target range of the financial stability index is [7.23 鈥，

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