本文選題：貨幣政策有效性 + 中介目標(biāo)�。� 參考：《華東師范大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：自1984年我國(guó)中央銀行開始獨(dú)立行使職能以來(lái),貨幣政策一直是我國(guó)中央銀行用來(lái)調(diào)控經(jīng)濟(jì),應(yīng)對(duì)危機(jī)的重要手段。三十多年來(lái),中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)取得了巨大的成績(jī),戰(zhàn)勝了許多挑戰(zhàn)。現(xiàn)如今中國(guó)面臨經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的新常態(tài)與新挑戰(zhàn)。通過(guò)貨幣政策有效性問題的研究,可以為今后的政策制定提供參考,使得貨幣政策更好地服務(wù)中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展與轉(zhuǎn)型。本文對(duì)貨幣政策有效性問題的研究從理論與實(shí)證兩個(gè)方面進(jìn)行研究。理論方面:分析了影響貨幣的中性與非中性、貨幣供給的內(nèi)生與外生與貨幣傳導(dǎo)的渠道的因素,并結(jié)合我國(guó)的實(shí)踐情況加以討論。我國(guó)貨幣具有非中性,供給外生以及傳導(dǎo)主要依賴信用渠道的特點(diǎn)。實(shí)證方面:選取1992年-2016年季度數(shù)據(jù),以不同時(shí)期貨幣政策中介目標(biāo)劃分,對(duì)貨幣政策變量與實(shí)際產(chǎn)出與物價(jià)變量進(jìn)行協(xié)整分析、格蘭杰非因果檢驗(yàn)、脈沖響應(yīng)分析與方差分解檢驗(yàn)。實(shí)證結(jié)果表明:貨幣政策有效,并且貨幣的數(shù)量指標(biāo)的效果大于利率指標(biāo)。但隨著時(shí)間的推移,貨幣政策的效果是不斷下降的。根據(jù)理論分析并結(jié)合實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)的結(jié)果,本文得出中國(guó)貨幣政策長(zhǎng)期以來(lái)是有效的,但是效果是不斷減弱的。我國(guó)貨幣政策主要是通過(guò)信貸渠道進(jìn)行傳導(dǎo)的,利率渠道傳導(dǎo)效果隨著利率市場(chǎng)化的不斷推進(jìn)有所提高。根據(jù)本文的研究結(jié)果,建議今后的貨幣政策制定要綜合考慮各個(gè)最終目標(biāo),并不斷完善利率市場(chǎng),資本市場(chǎng)與外匯市場(chǎng)以加強(qiáng)其他渠道的貨幣傳導(dǎo)效果。
[Abstract]:Since the Central Bank of China began to function independently in 1984, monetary policy has been an important means used by the Central Bank of China to control the economy and cope with the crisis. For more than thirty years, China's economy has achieved great achievements and defeated many challenges. Now China faces new normal and new challenges for economic development. The research on the efficiency problem can provide reference for future policy formulation, make monetary policy better serve the development and transformation of China's economy. The research on the validity of monetary policy is studied from two aspects of theory and demonstration. The factors of the channel of exogenous and monetary transmission are discussed in accordance with the practice of our country. The currency of our country is non neutral, the supply of exogenous and the transmission mainly depends on the credit channel. In the empirical aspect, we select the quarterly data of -2016 in 1992 to divide the monetary policy variables and actual output in different period of monetary policy. Cointegration analysis is carried out with price variables, Glenn Jaffe causality test, impulse response analysis and variance decomposition test. The empirical results show that monetary policy is effective, and the effect of the quantity index of money is greater than the interest rate index. However, the effect of monetary policy is not broken down with time. Based on theoretical analysis and empirical test The result is that China's monetary policy has been effective for a long time, but the effect is constantly weakening. The monetary policy of China is mainly conducted through credit channels. The effect of the transmission of interest rate channels is improved with the continuous promotion of interest rate marketization. According to the results of this paper, it is suggested that the formulation of monetary policy should be integrated in the future. We should consider every eventual goal and constantly improve interest rate market, capital market and foreign exchange market to strengthen the monetary transmission effect of other channels.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華東師范大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0

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本文編號(hào)：2021121