本文選題：盧布匯率 + 資本項目　； 參考：《歐亞經(jīng)濟》2016年01期

【摘要】：2014年以來,盧布匯率大幅貶值和劇烈波動引起國際社會廣泛關注。資本外逃、通貨膨脹、外匯儲備下降,俄羅斯經(jīng)濟面臨嚴峻考驗。深刻分析盧布貶值的原因:歐美制裁和油價下跌是導火索,經(jīng)濟增長乏力、結構畸形是根本點,開放資本項目是助推器。關聯(lián)儲退出量化寬松政策,美元加息預期不斷增強,特別是中國大幅下調(diào)人民幣中間價后,新興市場國家和與中國有密切貿(mào)易關系的國家貨幣爭先恐后貶值,在經(jīng)濟全球化的今天,發(fā)展中國家選擇何種匯率制度、資本項目的開放程度等又成為當前研討的熱點問題。中國"十三五"規(guī)劃建議指出,有序實現(xiàn)人民幣資本項目可自由兌換,推動人民幣進入特別提款權,成為可自由兌換、可自由使用貨幣,可見,人民幣國際化進程已經(jīng)開始提速。本刊編輯部特邀請國內(nèi)專家學者參加討論,剖析盧布貶值的深層原因,比較中俄兩國在經(jīng)濟增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)結構、國際儲備、本幣國際化、匯率制度等方面的差異,評估盧布匯率危機對中國金融改革總體進程的影響,探討中國如何在逐步推進匯率形成機制市場化的同時,有效防范匯率大幅波動產(chǎn)生的風險。
[Abstract]:Since 2014, the rouble exchange rate depreciation and sharp fluctuations caused widespread concern in the international community. Capital flight, inflation, falling foreign exchange reserves, Russia's economy is facing a severe test. Deep analysis of the reasons for the devaluation of the rouble: sanctions in Europe and the United States and falling oil prices are the trigger, economic growth is weak, structural malformation is the root point, and open capital account is the booster. With the withdrawal of the related savings account from quantitative easing, the expectation of a rise in US dollar interest rates is increasing. In particular, emerging market countries and countries with close trade ties with China have been scrambling to devalue after China slashed the central rate of the renminbi. In today's economic globalization, the choice of exchange rate system and the opening degree of capital account in developing countries have become hot issues. China's 13th Five-Year Plan proposal points out that the capital account of the renminbi can be freely convertible in an orderly manner, and that the renminbi will be promoted to enter the Special drawing Rights (SDR), making it freely convertible and freely using its currency. The RMB internationalization process has begun to speed up. Our editorial department specially invited domestic experts and scholars to participate in the discussion, to analyze the underlying causes of the devaluation of the rouble, and to compare the differences between China and Russia in economic growth, industrial structure, international reserves, internationalization of the local currency, exchange rate system, and so on. This paper evaluates the impact of the rouble exchange rate crisis on the overall process of China's financial reform, and probes into how China can effectively guard against the risk of large exchange rate fluctuations while gradually promoting the marketization of the exchange rate formation mechanism.
【作者單位】： 中央編譯局俄羅斯研究中心;
【分類號】：F835.12

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本文編號：2005998