本文選題：NY銀行 + 風(fēng)險現(xiàn)狀��； 參考：《上海國家會計學(xué)院》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：近些年,我國商業(yè)銀行不良資產(chǎn)規(guī)模及不良貸款率呈現(xiàn)快速上升的趨勢,而不良貸款撥備覆蓋率在逐年下滑,并逼近監(jiān)管層要求的最低水平。現(xiàn)階段,如何防范及化解不良資產(chǎn)增加引發(fā)的風(fēng)險是商業(yè)銀行經(jīng)營管理中的重要任務(wù)。由于我國商業(yè)銀行利潤主要來源為貸款業(yè)務(wù),且銀行發(fā)放的貸款和墊款規(guī)模占總資產(chǎn)規(guī)模的一半以上,故本文所討論的不良資產(chǎn)是指商業(yè)銀行的不良貸款。本文選取NY銀行作為研究對象,主要考慮到它的不良資產(chǎn)問題在規(guī)模相近的銀行里較為突出。通過分析NY銀行的不良資產(chǎn)現(xiàn)狀,有利于該行發(fā)現(xiàn)自身存在的缺陷,并提高不良資產(chǎn)的風(fēng)險管控水平。2013年末,NY銀行不良貸款率僅為1.22%,但2016年末已快速攀升到2.37%。隨著不良資產(chǎn)增量規(guī)模的大幅上升,NY銀行要在資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表和利潤表分別計提更多的資產(chǎn)減值準(zhǔn)備金及資產(chǎn)減值損失,進(jìn)而對NY銀行的凈利潤產(chǎn)生負(fù)面影響,并最終可能引起資本充足率不足問題。在案例分析部分,本文主要基于不良資產(chǎn)風(fēng)險傳導(dǎo)路徑來逐步剖析NY銀行不良資產(chǎn)引發(fā)的風(fēng)險問題。首先,本文研究了NY銀行不良資產(chǎn)風(fēng)險水平情況,分別從貸款五級分類比重變動、貸款行業(yè)分布變動、貸款地區(qū)分布變動、單筆貸款集中度變動以及基層不良貸款案例等方面分析了當(dāng)前的風(fēng)險概況。其次,本文分析了NY銀行不良資產(chǎn)風(fēng)險遷徙情況,重點研究了關(guān)注類貸款遷徙率變動趨勢以及逾期貸款存在的風(fēng)險遷徙隱患。再次,本文研究了NY銀行不良資產(chǎn)風(fēng)險抵御情況,分別從不良貸款撥備計提比例變動、不良貸款核銷比例變動、凈利潤增速變動、資本充足率變動等方面分析了NY銀行應(yīng)對不良貸款風(fēng)險能力的變動。最后,基于上述分析,本文定量地預(yù)測了NY銀行不良資產(chǎn)在未來兩年變動趨勢,并測算了不良資產(chǎn)變動對NY銀行凈利潤以及資本充足率的影響。測算結(jié)果顯示,NY銀行的資本準(zhǔn)備金在未來可能出現(xiàn)一定的缺口。在不良資產(chǎn)管理對策建議方面,本文借鑒了商業(yè)銀行全面風(fēng)險管理的思想,建議NY銀行要在未來拓展外部融資規(guī)模、調(diào)整信貸投放結(jié)構(gòu)、優(yōu)化收入方式、提高基層人員素質(zhì)、引入大數(shù)據(jù)監(jiān)控等。并且,對NY銀行提出的不良資產(chǎn)風(fēng)險管理思路和部分措施也可以應(yīng)用在其它商業(yè)銀行中。
[Abstract]:In recent years, the scale of non-performing assets and the ratio of non-performing loans of commercial banks in China are rising rapidly, while the coverage rate of provision for non-performing loans is declining year by year, which is close to the lowest level required by regulators. At present, how to prevent and resolve the risks caused by the increase of non-performing assets is an important task in the management of commercial banks. Since the profits of commercial banks in China mainly come from the loan business, and the loans and advances made by the banks account for more than half of the total assets, the non-performing assets discussed in this paper refer to the non-performing loans of the commercial banks. In this paper, NY Bank is chosen as the research object, mainly considering that its non-performing assets problem is prominent in similar banks. By analyzing the current situation of non-performing assets of NY Bank, it is helpful for the bank to find its own defects and improve the risk control level of non-performing assets. At the end of 2013, the non-performing loan ratio of NY Bank was only 1.22, but it had climbed to 2.37 by the end of 2016. With the large increase in the increment of non-performing assets, NY Bank has to make more impairment reserves and impairment losses in its balance sheet and profit statement respectively, which will have a negative impact on the net profit of NY Bank. And may eventually lead to inadequate capital adequacy. In the case analysis part, this paper mainly analyzes the risk problem caused by NY bank's non-performing assets based on the transmission path of non-performing assets risk. First of all, this paper studies the risk level of non-performing assets in NY Bank, which is divided into five categories: the proportion of loans, the distribution of loan industry, the distribution of loans, and the regional distribution of loans. The current risk profile is analyzed in the aspects of single loan concentration change and grassroots non-performing loan cases. Secondly, this paper analyzes the risk migration of NY bank's non-performing assets, focusing on the trend of migration rate of concern loans and the hidden dangers of risk migration of overdue loans. Thirdly, this paper studies the risk resistance of NY bank's non-performing assets, including the change of the proportion of provision for non-performing loans, the proportion of write-off of non-performing loans, the change of net profit growth rate. This paper analyzes the change of NY Bank's ability to deal with the risk of non-performing loans in terms of the change of capital adequacy ratio. Finally, based on the above analysis, this paper quantitatively predicts the trend of non-performing assets of NY Bank in the next two years, and calculates the influence of the change of non-performing assets on the net profit and capital adequacy ratio of NY Bank. The results show that NY Bank's capital reserves in the future may have a certain gap. In the aspect of non-performing assets management countermeasures and suggestions, this paper draws lessons from the idea of comprehensive risk management of commercial banks and suggests that NY Bank should expand the scale of external financing in the future, adjust the structure of credit investment, optimize the way of income, and improve the quality of grass-roots personnel. Introduction of big data monitoring and so on. Moreover, the ideas and some measures proposed by NY Bank can also be applied to other commercial banks.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：上海國家會計學(xué)院
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.4

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本文編號：1990962