本文選題：自然利率 + 自然產(chǎn)出��； 參考：《財(cái)貿(mào)研究》2016年06期

【摘要】：利用中等規(guī)模DSGE模型和貝葉斯估計(jì)技術(shù),估算20世紀(jì)90年代以來(lái)中國(guó)的自然產(chǎn)出和自然利率水平。結(jié)果表明,2008年全球金融危機(jī)以后,中國(guó)的自然利率呈現(xiàn)明顯的下降趨勢(shì)。這確認(rèn)了中國(guó)實(shí)際利率和企業(yè)融資成本過(guò)高的判斷,在中國(guó)貨幣政策操作框架快速向利率調(diào)控過(guò)渡的背景下,可以為中央銀行確定政策利率基準(zhǔn)水平提供一定的參考。
[Abstract]:Based on the medium-scale DSGE model and Bayesian estimation technique, the natural output and natural interest rate levels in China since the 1990s are estimated. The results show that after the global financial crisis in 2008, China's natural interest rates show an obvious downward trend. This confirms that the real interest rate in China and the financing cost of enterprises are too high. In the context of the rapid transition from the operational framework of monetary policy in China to the regulation of interest rate, it can provide a certain reference for the central bank to determine the benchmark level of policy interest rate.
【作者單位】： 廈門大學(xué)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)研究中心;
【基金】：國(guó)家社科基金重大項(xiàng)目“經(jīng)濟(jì)持續(xù)健康發(fā)展與收入倍增計(jì)劃的實(shí)現(xiàn)路徑研究”(13&ZD029) 教育部哲學(xué)社會(huì)科學(xué)重大課題攻關(guān)項(xiàng)目“中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)潛在增速的測(cè)算與展望研究”(15JZD016)
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0
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本文編號(hào)：1942634