本文選題：貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制 + 城鄉(xiāng)二元結(jié)構(gòu)��； 參考：《山東大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：新中國(guó)成立以來(lái)我國(guó)實(shí)行向工業(yè)和城市傾斜的政策,在加快工業(yè)化、城市化發(fā)展的同時(shí),也形成并加劇了城鄉(xiāng)二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu),導(dǎo)致城鄉(xiāng)地區(qū)在居民收入和消費(fèi)、金融與經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展水平等方面都存在較大差距。城鄉(xiāng)二元結(jié)構(gòu)制約著我國(guó)當(dāng)前和長(zhǎng)遠(yuǎn)的經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展,也不利于安定團(tuán)結(jié)。黨和國(guó)家高度重視城鄉(xiāng)發(fā)展失衡的問(wèn)題,在"十二五"、"十三五"規(guī)劃、十八大報(bào)告以及政府工作報(bào)告中多次提及統(tǒng)籌城鄉(xiāng)協(xié)調(diào)發(fā)展的問(wèn)題。因此在當(dāng)前背景下研究統(tǒng)一的貨幣政策是否會(huì)在城鄉(xiāng)地區(qū)之間產(chǎn)生不同的影響,分析造成此不同的原因,具有重要的現(xiàn)實(shí)意義。本文首先概述了貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的經(jīng)典理論。貨幣政策傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制是指貨幣政策通過(guò)不同的傳導(dǎo)渠道影響宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的動(dòng)態(tài)機(jī)制。貨幣政策主要有三個(gè)傳導(dǎo)渠道,分別是利率、資產(chǎn)價(jià)格和信貸渠道。結(jié)合我國(guó)的貨幣政策實(shí)踐和部分學(xué)者的研究發(fā)現(xiàn)我國(guó)的利率渠道存在梗阻,信貸渠道和貨幣供應(yīng)量在實(shí)際的貨幣政策操作中扮演著重要角色。貨幣政策不僅具有總體效應(yīng),影響總產(chǎn)出、物價(jià)和就業(yè)水平,也會(huì)產(chǎn)生經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng),對(duì)不同的經(jīng)濟(jì)部門(如產(chǎn)業(yè)、區(qū)域和城鄉(xiāng)等)產(chǎn)生異質(zhì)性的影響。本文通過(guò)文獻(xiàn)梳理發(fā)現(xiàn)貨幣政策結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)相關(guān)文章主要從產(chǎn)業(yè)和區(qū)域兩方面進(jìn)行論述,對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)結(jié)構(gòu)效應(yīng)分析較少。因此本文結(jié)合我國(guó)貨幣政策實(shí)踐,把城鄉(xiāng)二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)因素考慮在內(nèi),使用我國(guó)1989至2014年的年度經(jīng)濟(jì)數(shù)據(jù),構(gòu)建結(jié)構(gòu)向量自回歸模型,進(jìn)行脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)分析和方差分解分析來(lái)論證貨幣政策在城鄉(xiāng)間的不同影響。格蘭杰因果檢驗(yàn)表明貨幣政策通過(guò)信貸和貨幣供應(yīng)變量的傳導(dǎo)實(shí)現(xiàn)對(duì)城鄉(xiāng)經(jīng)濟(jì)的影響和調(diào)節(jié)作用。信貸規(guī)模和貨幣供應(yīng)量相互獨(dú)立,前者引導(dǎo)后者調(diào)控經(jīng)濟(jì)。另外發(fā)現(xiàn)城鎮(zhèn)收入是農(nóng)村收入變動(dòng)的格蘭杰原因,這與我國(guó)優(yōu)先促進(jìn)城市發(fā)展,城鎮(zhèn)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶動(dòng)農(nóng)村經(jīng)濟(jì)的非均衡發(fā)展道路是相吻合的。脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)表明貨幣政策對(duì)于城鄉(xiāng)的影響程度和影響時(shí)滯具有差異。與城市相比,貨幣政策對(duì)農(nóng)村的影響存在滯后。方差分解表明信貸對(duì)于城市與農(nóng)村地區(qū)的人均收入變動(dòng)均有重要影響,并且城市經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的內(nèi)生作用較強(qiáng),反映了我國(guó)城鄉(xiāng)二元經(jīng)濟(jì)結(jié)構(gòu)體制下,產(chǎn)業(yè)、資本、技術(shù)、人才等都生產(chǎn)要素往城市集聚,促進(jìn)了城市經(jīng)濟(jì)的內(nèi)生性增長(zhǎng)�；趯�(shí)證結(jié)果的分析,本文在最后提出了幾點(diǎn)建議。首先要打破二元結(jié)構(gòu),力促一體化發(fā)展;其次城鄉(xiāng)有別,靈活使用貨幣政策。三是改善農(nóng)村金融市場(chǎng),讓金融惠農(nóng)強(qiáng)農(nóng)。
[Abstract]:Since the founding of the people's Republic of China, China has implemented a policy of favoring industry and cities. While accelerating industrialization and urbanization, it has also formed and intensified the dual economic structure between urban and rural areas, resulting in the income and consumption of residents in urban and rural areas. There is a big gap between finance and economic development. The dual structure of urban and rural areas restricts China's current and long-term economic development and is not conducive to stability and unity. The Party and the state attach great importance to the imbalance of urban and rural development. In the 12th Five-Year Plan, the Thirteenth Five-Year Plan, the 18th National Congress report and the government work report, the issue of coordinating urban and rural development has been mentioned many times. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study whether the unified monetary policy will have different effects between urban and rural areas under the current background and to analyze the causes of these differences. This paper first summarizes the classical theory of monetary policy transmission mechanism. Monetary policy transmission mechanism refers to the dynamic mechanism that monetary policy affects macroeconomic variables through different transmission channels. Monetary policy has three main transmission channels, namely interest rate, asset price and credit channel. Combined with the practice of monetary policy in China and the research of some scholars, it is found that there is obstruction in the channel of interest rate in our country, and credit channel and money supply play an important role in the actual operation of monetary policy. Monetary policy not only has the overall effect, affects the total output, the price and the employment level, also can produce the economic structure effect, produces the heterogeneity influence to the different economic sector (such as industry, the region and the urban and rural areas) and so on. Through literature review, this paper finds that monetary policy structural effects are mainly discussed from the industrial and regional aspects, and the analysis of the urban-rural structure effect is less. Therefore, this paper combines the monetary policy practice of our country, taking into account the urban and rural dual economic structure factors, using the annual economic data from 1989 to 2014, constructs the structural vector autoregressive model. Impulse response function analysis and variance decomposition analysis are carried out to demonstrate the different effects of monetary policy between urban and rural areas. Granger causality test shows that monetary policy influences and adjusts the urban and rural economy through the transmission of credit and money supply variables. Credit scale and money supply are independent of each other, the former guide the latter to adjust and control the economy. In addition, it is found that urban income is the Granger reason for the change of rural income, which is consistent with the unbalanced development of rural economy driven by urban economy. The impulse response function shows that the influence of monetary policy on urban and rural areas and the impact of time delay are different. Compared with cities, the impact of monetary policy on rural areas lags behind. Variance decomposition shows that credit has an important impact on the change of per capita income in both urban and rural areas, and the endogenous role of urban economic development is relatively strong, reflecting the dual economic structure of urban and rural China, industry, capital, technology, Talent and other factors of production agglomerate to the city, promoting the endogenous growth of urban economy. Based on the analysis of empirical results, this paper puts forward some suggestions at the end. First, we should break the dualistic structure and promote the development of integration; secondly, we should use monetary policy flexibly and differ between urban and rural areas. Third, improve the rural financial market, so that finance benefits agriculture.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：山東大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F822.0

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