本文選題：美國(guó) + 量化寬松貨幣政策��； 參考：《吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：2008年,起源于美國(guó)的金融危機(jī)給美國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)和世界經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)了重創(chuàng)。又由于在危機(jī)到來(lái)時(shí),美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的聯(lián)邦基金利率已降至接近于零的水平,致使傳統(tǒng)貨幣政策失效。為應(yīng)對(duì)這一危局,美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)實(shí)施了量化寬松貨幣政策,即通過(guò)美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的大規(guī)模資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)來(lái)為市場(chǎng)提供流動(dòng)性,以達(dá)到刺激經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)的目的。本論文將主要研究美國(guó)量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)美國(guó)國(guó)內(nèi)和世界其他國(guó)家產(chǎn)生的影響。通過(guò)研究美國(guó)的量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)其國(guó)內(nèi)影響的利弊得失,來(lái)進(jìn)一步豐富我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控工具箱的內(nèi)容。再者,我國(guó)作為美國(guó)最大的貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)和債權(quán)國(guó)之一,美國(guó)的貨幣政策嚴(yán)重影響著我國(guó)的利益,所以本文也將研究美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)貨幣政策的外溢效應(yīng)。首先,本文研究了美國(guó)量化寬松貨幣政策的國(guó)內(nèi)傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制。通過(guò)對(duì)各階段不同傳導(dǎo)機(jī)制的研究,分析了影響量化寬松貨幣政策有效性的因素,以及量化寬松貨幣政策可能給一國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的不利影響。其次,本文通過(guò)建立誤差修正模型(ECM)來(lái)實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)美國(guó)量化寬松貨幣政策的有效性,并得出以下結(jié)論:美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)量化寬松貨幣政策有效,其在總體上能夠壓低美國(guó)的長(zhǎng)期利率,提高美國(guó)的產(chǎn)出和就業(yè)。但量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)就業(yè)短期無(wú)效、長(zhǎng)期有效,存在著明顯的時(shí)滯性,并且量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)就業(yè)和產(chǎn)出的貢獻(xiàn)度相對(duì)較小,所以導(dǎo)致量化寬松貨幣政策實(shí)施時(shí)間長(zhǎng),造成美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表規(guī)模過(guò)大,不利于美國(guó)貨幣政策的正�；�。接下來(lái),本文研究美國(guó)量化寬松貨幣政策給全球經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的影響。美國(guó)作為世界最大的經(jīng)濟(jì)體和世界儲(chǔ)備貨幣的發(fā)行國(guó),美國(guó)的貨幣政策牽動(dòng)著世界各國(guó)的神經(jīng)。本文將著重分析美國(guó)量化寬松貨幣政策給其他國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)帶來(lái)的諸多負(fù)面影響,并建立了理論模型和實(shí)證分析模型來(lái)說(shuō)明美國(guó)量化寬松貨幣政策對(duì)其他國(guó)家貨幣政策的影響。實(shí)證分析結(jié)果顯示美聯(lián)儲(chǔ)的大規(guī)模資產(chǎn)購(gòu)買(mǎi)對(duì)德國(guó)和法國(guó)央行的利率影響顯著,對(duì)包括我國(guó)在內(nèi)的金磚五國(guó)和一些發(fā)達(dá)經(jīng)濟(jì)體如加拿大、英國(guó)及日本的外匯儲(chǔ)備影響顯著。
[Abstract]:In 2008, the financial crisis originated in the United States brought heavy damage to the American economy and the world economy. And because the Fed's federal funds rate had fallen to near zero by the time of the crisis, traditional monetary policy had failed. In response to the crisis, the Fed implemented quantitative easing to provide liquidity to markets through the Fed's massive asset purchases in order to stimulate economic growth. This thesis will focus on the impact of quantitative easing monetary policy on the United States and the rest of the world. By studying the advantages and disadvantages of the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States on its domestic effects, this paper further enriches the contents of China's macroeconomic control toolbox. Furthermore, as one of the largest trading partners and creditors of the United States, the monetary policy of the United States seriously affects the interests of our country, so this paper will also study the spillover effect of the monetary policy of the Federal Reserve. First, this paper studies the domestic transmission mechanism of quantitative easing monetary policy in the United States. Through the study of different transmission mechanisms in different stages, this paper analyzes the factors that affect the effectiveness of quantitative easing monetary policy and the adverse effects that quantitative easing monetary policy may bring to a country's economy. Secondly, by establishing an error correction model, this paper empirically tests the effectiveness of the quantitative easing monetary policy of the United States, and draws the following conclusions: the quantitative easing monetary policy of the Federal Reserve is effective, which can lower the long-term interest rate of the United States on the whole. To increase output and employment in the United States. However, the monetary policy of quantitative easing is ineffective in the short term, effective in the long term, and has obvious time delay. Moreover, the contribution of quantitative easing to employment and output is relatively small, which leads to the implementation of quantitative easing monetary policy for a long time. The Fed's balance sheet is too large to normalise US monetary policy. Next, this paper studies the impact of quantitative easing monetary policy on the global economy. As the largest economy in the world and the issuer of the world reserve currency, the monetary policy of the United States affects the nerves of the world. This paper focuses on the analysis of the negative effects of the quantitative easing monetary policy on the economies of other countries, and establishes a theoretical model and an empirical analysis model to illustrate the impact of the quantitative easing monetary policy on the monetary policy of other countries. Empirical results show that the Fed's massive asset purchases have a significant impact on interest rates at central banks in Germany and France, as well as on foreign exchange reserves in the BRICS including China and some developed economies such as Canada, the United Kingdom and Japan.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林財(cái)經(jīng)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類(lèi)號(hào)】：F827.12

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