本文選題：影子銀行 + 貨幣政策　； 參考：《華僑大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：經(jīng)過這些年的迅猛成長,影子銀行早已更改了環(huán)球的金融結(jié)構(gòu)。雖然國內(nèi)的影子銀行此刻還處于初始成長階段,但是已壯大成我國金融系統(tǒng)中的重要構(gòu)成元素。另外,雖然我國影子銀行的形式相對發(fā)達國家比較簡單,但是發(fā)展方式也不如發(fā)達國家規(guī)范,所以依然蘊藏著較大的風(fēng)險。近些年來,關(guān)于我國影子銀行作用于金融穩(wěn)定的效用的討論也逐漸增多。為了研究國內(nèi)影子銀行作用于金融穩(wěn)定的效果,本文既使用理論分析,也有實證研究,二者相輔相成,使得論證比較有理有據(jù),還以相關(guān)的統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)、圖表佐證本文的觀點。首先,本文根據(jù)我國影子銀行的特點,并結(jié)合相關(guān)研究的代表性文獻,界定了影子銀行并闡述其作用機理;隨后,根據(jù)設(shè)定的指標(biāo),選取2002年到2015年間的相關(guān)數(shù)據(jù),通過建立貨幣政策SVAR模型,探討了影子銀行作用于貨幣政策的效用;最后,通過建立GARCH—偏t分布—VaR模型,將2007年到2016年的有關(guān)數(shù)據(jù)代入該模型,探討了影子銀行作用于我國金融穩(wěn)定性的效用。實證分析結(jié)果顯示,國內(nèi)影子銀行的擴張?zhí)嵘斯_市場操作的有效性,使得以貨幣供應(yīng)量為監(jiān)測中介的貨幣政策難以達到預(yù)期調(diào)控范圍;此外,國內(nèi)影子銀行的風(fēng)險較高,其中證券類影子銀行的VaR最高,信托類影子銀行次之,民間借貸類影子銀行最小。根據(jù)實證結(jié)果,本文指出監(jiān)管部門應(yīng)該對影子銀行的發(fā)展持審慎態(tài)度,既不能任由影子銀行野蠻式地發(fā)展,也不能一味地限制其擴張;應(yīng)該將影子銀行的監(jiān)控管理和國內(nèi)的金融制度完善結(jié)合在一起。
[Abstract]:After years of rapid growth, shadow banking has changed the global financial structure. Although the shadow banking in China is still in its initial stage of growth, it has become an important element in the financial system of our country. In addition, although the form of shadow banking in our country is relatively simple compared with the developed countries, the mode of development is not as good as that of the developed countries, so it still contains great risks. In recent years, the discussion on the role of shadow banking in financial stability has increased. In order to study the effect of domestic shadow banking on financial stability, both theoretical analysis and empirical research are used in this paper. Firstly, according to the characteristics of shadow banking in China and the representative literature of relevant research, this paper defines shadow banking and explains its mechanism. Then, according to the established indicators, the paper selects the relevant data from 2002 to 2015. Through the establishment of monetary policy SVAR model, this paper discusses the effect of shadow banking on monetary policy, and finally, through the establishment of GARCH-partial t distribution-VaR model, the relevant data from 2007 to 2016 are added to the model. This paper discusses the effect of shadow banking on financial stability in China. The results of empirical analysis show that the expansion of domestic shadow banks enhances the effectiveness of open market operations, and makes it difficult for monetary policy with money supply as the monitoring intermediary to achieve the expected regulatory scope. In addition, the risks of domestic shadow banks are relatively high. Among them, the VaR of securities shadow bank is the highest, trust shadow bank is the second, and folk loan shadow bank is the smallest. According to the empirical results, this paper points out that the regulatory authorities should take a prudent attitude towards the development of shadow banking, neither allow shadow banking to develop savagely, nor blindly limit its expansion; Shadow banking supervision and management should be combined with the improvement of domestic financial system.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：華僑大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.3

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