本文選題：貨幣政策 + 國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)�。� 參考：《國(guó)際商務(wù)(對(duì)外經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易大學(xué)學(xué)報(bào))》2016年01期

【摘要】：本文以2005年7月~2014年6月的月度數(shù)據(jù)為樣本,建立VAR模型,運(yùn)用脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù),實(shí)證分析了貨幣政策變化對(duì)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的影響。結(jié)果發(fā)現(xiàn),貨幣供給的增加會(huì)導(dǎo)致國(guó)際資本在短期流出,在中長(zhǎng)期則流入。具體而言,在短期內(nèi),貨幣供給的增加降低了人民幣升值預(yù)期和國(guó)內(nèi)利率,在兩者共同作用下,國(guó)際資本流出;在中長(zhǎng)期內(nèi),貨幣供給的增加提高了人民幣升值預(yù)期,而國(guó)內(nèi)利率仍然降低,但由于匯率預(yù)期對(duì)資本流動(dòng)的影響比國(guó)內(nèi)利率的影響更強(qiáng)烈,因此國(guó)際資本總體上呈現(xiàn)為凈流入。因此,央行制定和實(shí)施貨幣政策應(yīng)考慮其對(duì)短期國(guó)際資本流動(dòng)的影響,同時(shí),加快人民幣匯率市場(chǎng)化、利率市場(chǎng)化改革,并加強(qiáng)對(duì)短期資本流動(dòng)的監(jiān)測(cè)與管理。
[Abstract]:Based on the monthly data from July 2005 to June 2014, VAR model is established and the impact of monetary policy changes on short-term international capital flows is analyzed empirically by using impulse response function.It is found that the increase in the money supply will lead to the outflow of international capital in the short term and the inflow in the medium and long term.Specifically, in the short term, the increase in the money supply has lowered the expectations of RMB appreciation and domestic interest rates, under the combined action of both, international capital outflows; in the medium and long term, the increase in the money supply has raised the expectation of RMB appreciation.While the domestic interest rate is still lower, the impact of exchange rate expectation on capital flows is stronger than that of domestic interest rate, so the overall international capital flows show a net inflow.Therefore, the central bank should consider the impact of monetary policy on short-term international capital flow, accelerate the reform of RMB exchange rate marketization and interest rate marketization, and strengthen the monitoring and management of short-term capital flow.
【作者單位】： 南京師范大學(xué)商學(xué)院;
【基金】：國(guó)家社科基金項(xiàng)目“應(yīng)對(duì)軍事沖突的中國(guó)外匯儲(chǔ)備風(fēng)險(xiǎn)防控研究”(13BJY171)的階段性研究成果
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F822.0

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