本文選題：跨境經(jīng)濟(jì)循環(huán) + 跨境金融循環(huán)�。� 參考：《世界經(jīng)濟(jì)研究》2017年09期

【摘要】：文章以跨境實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)循環(huán)和跨境金融循環(huán)的"兩個(gè)循環(huán)"分析框架為基礎(chǔ),研究境外人民幣需求的決定因素,并在境內(nèi)仍然存在一定資本管制的前提下,在理論上分析香港人民幣存款余額、香港人民幣匯率預(yù)期和內(nèi)地與香港兩地存款利差三個(gè)變量之間可能存在的關(guān)系。從理論上看,兩地資本仍不能完全自由流動(dòng)是兩地人民幣存款利率和人民幣匯率存在差異的基本原因。此后,文章用VEC模型對(duì)上述三個(gè)變量的關(guān)系進(jìn)行檢驗(yàn)。實(shí)證結(jié)果顯示,三個(gè)變量之間存在著不同程度的相互影響。從中長(zhǎng)期看,香港人民幣匯率預(yù)期變動(dòng)是香港人民幣存款變化的重要影響因素,兩地利差的變動(dòng)對(duì)香港人民幣存款變化的直接影響不甚顯著。需強(qiáng)調(diào)的是,三個(gè)變量之間存在著相互強(qiáng)化的關(guān)系,例如,中長(zhǎng)期內(nèi),若香港存在人民幣升值預(yù)期,則三個(gè)變量的相互作用可能使得人民幣產(chǎn)生更大的升值預(yù)期。另外,由于內(nèi)地仍存在資本管制,香港人民幣存款與兩地利差之間的相互作用是非對(duì)稱的。
[Abstract]:Based on the "two cycles" analysis framework of cross-border real economic cycle and cross-border financial cycle, this paper studies the determinants of offshore RMB demand, and on the premise that there are still some capital controls in China,This paper theoretically analyzes the possible relationship between the balance of RMB deposits in Hong Kong, the expectation of RMB exchange rate in Hong Kong and the three variables of deposit interest difference between the mainland and Hong Kong.Theoretically, the fact that the capital of the two places is still unable to flow freely is the basic reason for the difference between the RMB deposit rate and the RMB exchange rate.Then, the VEC model is used to test the relationship between the above three variables.Empirical results show that there are different degrees of interaction between the three variables.In the medium and long term, the expected change of RMB exchange rate in Hong Kong is an important factor influencing the change of RMB deposits in Hong Kong, and the change of interest rate difference between the two places has little direct effect on the change of RMB deposits in Hong Kong.It should be stressed that there is a mutually reinforcing relationship between the three variables, for example, in the medium and long term, if there is a expectation of RMB appreciation in Hong Kong, the interaction of the three variables may lead to greater expectations of appreciation of the RMB.Moreover, the interaction between renminbi deposits and interest rate differentials in Hong Kong is asymmetrical because capital controls still exist on the mainland.
【作者單位】： 上海社會(huì)科學(xué)院世界經(jīng)濟(jì)研究所;
【基金】：國(guó)家社會(huì)科學(xué)基金項(xiàng)目《人民幣國(guó)際化的條件、路徑與對(duì)策研究》(項(xiàng)目編號(hào):13BGJ041)的階段性研究成果
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6
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本文編號(hào)：1732536