本文選題：對外直接投資　切入點：風險　出處：《浙江工商大學》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：在經(jīng)濟全球化日益深化的背景下,我國對其他國家的投資規(guī)模和頻次均已大幅增加。然而,在此過程中,我國企業(yè)所面臨的東道國風險也更加復雜。由于國內(nèi)對東道國綜合風險的研究不多,企業(yè)在對東道國投資之前,所面臨的綜合風險評估是一個難題。而本文綜合了各個常用的分項風險,對各分項風險以及總體風險做了理論分析和綜合的數(shù)據(jù)測算,具有一定的實踐意義。本文首先介紹了對外直接投資的基本概念和基礎理論,構建了一個開放經(jīng)濟下的克魯格曼壟斷競爭模型,通過比較企業(yè)預期效用與企業(yè)利潤的關系,逐步推導出企業(yè)可能會對一國進行直接投資的條件。隨后,本文從風險的構成要素、風險偏好以及投資動機三個層面展開,詳細探討了東道國風險影響我國企業(yè)對外直接投資的內(nèi)在機理。本文綜合各種文獻,選出了起主導作用的幾種風險影響因素。在風險偏好的層面,假設我國企業(yè)在對外直接投資時具有風險偏好特征,那么企業(yè)會傾向于對風險較高的國家投資。在投資動機上,我國企業(yè)在對外直接投資時,具有市場尋求、資源尋求以及技術尋求特征。在不同的投資動機下,東道國風險對我國企業(yè)OFDI的影響機制也有所不同。在風險測算方面,本文采用改進的主成分分析法(PCA),測算出所選樣本的各項風險值。從各國的風險值可以得出,發(fā)展中國家的綜合風險值在總體上比較高。而分析各國風險的波動可知,我國企業(yè)愿意對一國直接投資的條件與前文理論模型推導的一致。本文根據(jù)64個國家近10年的面板數(shù)據(jù),采用固定效應模型,研究了東道國風險對我國OFDI的實證影響。結果表明,東道國的政治、經(jīng)濟、法律風險均對我國的對外直接投資有影響,我國企業(yè)的對外直接投資在各項風險上均不存在風險偏好的問題。在投資動機上,實證結果表明,我國企業(yè)的對外直接投資的確具有市場尋求、資源尋求以及技術尋求動機。而在加入風險與投資動機的交互項之后,風險對投資的影響也會被抑制或促進,這與理論分析結論是一致的。由于我國企業(yè)未來對“一帶一路”沿線國家投資會越來越多,本文對“一帶一路”國家的數(shù)據(jù)做了重點測算,并對其樣本單獨做了實證分析,實證結果與全樣本基本一致。
[Abstract]:Under the background of deepening economic globalization, the scale and frequency of China's investment in other countries have increased significantly.However, in this process, the risk of the host country faced by Chinese enterprises is more complex.Because there is not much research on the comprehensive risk of the host country in our country, the comprehensive risk assessment that enterprises face before investing in the host country is a difficult problem.This paper synthesizes the common itemized risk, makes the theoretical analysis and the comprehensive data calculation to each itemized risk as well as the overall risk, which has certain practical significance.This paper first introduces the basic concepts and basic theories of FDI, constructs a Krugman monopoly competition model in an open economy, and compares the relationship between the expected utility of enterprises and the profits of enterprises.The conditions under which firms may invest directly in a country are gradually deduced.Then, this paper discusses the internal mechanism of the host country's risk influencing the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises in detail from three aspects: the constituent elements of risk, the risk preference and the investment motivation.In this paper, several risk factors which play a leading role are selected by synthesizing all kinds of literatures.In the aspect of risk preference, if Chinese enterprises have the characteristics of risk preference in OFDI, then enterprises tend to invest in countries with higher risk.In terms of investment motivation, Chinese enterprises have the characteristics of market seeking, resource seeking and technology seeking when they invest in foreign direct investment.Under different investment motives, the influence mechanism of host country risk on OFDI of Chinese enterprises is also different.In the aspect of risk measurement, this paper uses the improved principal component analysis method to calculate the risk values of the selected samples.From the risk value of each country, the overall risk value of developing countries is relatively high.By analyzing the fluctuation of risk in different countries, we can see that the conditions of Chinese enterprises willing to invest in a country are consistent with the theoretical model.Based on panel data from 64 countries in the past 10 years, this paper studies the empirical influence of host country risk on OFDI in China by using fixed effect model.The results show that the political, economic and legal risks of the host country have an impact on China's foreign direct investment, and there is no risk preference problem in the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises.In terms of investment motivation, the empirical results show that the foreign direct investment of Chinese enterprises does have the motivation of market seeking, resource seeking and technology seeking.After the interaction between risk and investment motivation, the influence of risk on investment will be restrained or promoted, which is consistent with the conclusion of theoretical analysis.As Chinese enterprises will invest more and more in the countries along Belt and Road in the future, this paper makes a key calculation of the data of the country along "Belt and Road", and makes an empirical analysis of the samples separately. The empirical results are basically consistent with those of the whole sample.
【學位授予單位】：浙江工商大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.6

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本文編號：1704189