本文選題：信貸供給周期　切入點(diǎn)：債務(wù)融資　出處：《浙江大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文

【摘要】：公司在經(jīng)營和發(fā)展過程中,需要進(jìn)行資金籌募來滿足自身持續(xù)經(jīng)營和業(yè)務(wù)拓展的需要,融資決策對于公司而言至關(guān)重要,也是公司金融領(lǐng)域的研究熱點(diǎn)。在學(xué)術(shù)層面,近年來,越來越多的研究關(guān)注到宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)波動和經(jīng)濟(jì)政策與微觀經(jīng)濟(jì)主體行為之間的聯(lián)系,其中信貸市場被認(rèn)為是宏觀層面向微觀層面?zhèn)鲗?dǎo)的重要途徑,不從信貸供給如何作用于公司微觀行為入手,很難對其傳導(dǎo)渠道形成深入理解。在現(xiàn)實(shí)層面,全球性金融形勢的日益嚴(yán)峻導(dǎo)致金融波動頻發(fā),信貸市場波動對實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)活動的影響不斷,政府和央行也不斷通過信貸政策和信貸工具的運(yùn)用調(diào)控信貸投放的速度和強(qiáng)度。在此背景下,研究信貸供給周期對公司外部融資的影響效果和機(jī)制,具有重要意義。本文主要研究中國信貸供給周期對公司債務(wù)融資和股權(quán)融資的影響,并將公司資產(chǎn)負(fù)債表的變化和管理者信心程度的變化納入分析框架,著重探究了其在信貸供給影響中的微觀作用機(jī)制。在進(jìn)行理論分析并提出假說后,通過選取2003年第一季度至2015年第四季度期間的中國宏觀信貸指標(biāo)和企業(yè)家信心指標(biāo),以及中國A股上市公司的季度財務(wù)數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析,本文得出以下結(jié)論:信貸供給周期的變化,包括信貸增長速度、信貸增長力度和信貸能力變動對公司的債務(wù)融資和股權(quán)融資具有顯著影響,信貸供給擴(kuò)張時公司將增加債務(wù)融資,減少股權(quán)融資,反之亦然;在信貸供給周期影響公司外部融資的過程中,可抵押資產(chǎn)增加將放大信貸供給波動對債務(wù)融資和股權(quán)融資的影響;現(xiàn)金流增加將削弱信貸供給波動對債務(wù)融資的沖擊,但在股權(quán)融資方面無顯著作用;管理者信心程度增強(qiáng)也將同時放大宏觀信貸對公司債務(wù)融資和股權(quán)融資的影響。本文的研究結(jié)論對公司融資決策和政府信貸調(diào)控起到一定的參考作用。公司融資行為應(yīng)重視信貸供給周期變化的影響,通過調(diào)整公司財務(wù)特征、調(diào)節(jié)管理者心態(tài)去應(yīng)對宏觀信貸波動沖擊;政府要加強(qiáng)對信貸異常波動情況的監(jiān)控,防止信貸沖擊通過公司融資對實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)產(chǎn)生的不利影響,中央銀行在運(yùn)用信貸政策和工具進(jìn)行調(diào)控時,應(yīng)考慮到宏觀信貸與實(shí)體經(jīng)濟(jì)相關(guān)聯(lián)的視角。
[Abstract]:In the process of operation and development, the company needs to raise funds to meet the needs of its continuing operation and business expansion. Financing decision is very important for the company, and it is also a hot research topic in the field of corporate finance.At the academic level, in recent years, more and more researches have focused on the relationship between macroeconomic fluctuations and the behavior of microeconomic subjects, in which the credit market is considered to be an important way to transmit from the macro to the micro level.It is difficult to understand how the credit supply acts on the microcosmic behavior of the company.In reality, the increasingly severe global financial situation leads to frequent financial fluctuations, and the impact of credit market volatility on real economic activities is constant.The government and the central bank also constantly regulate the speed and intensity of credit delivery through credit policy and the use of credit instruments.Under this background, it is of great significance to study the effect and mechanism of credit supply cycle on external financing.This paper mainly studies the impact of Chinese credit supply cycle on corporate debt financing and equity financing, and brings the changes of balance sheet and confidence of managers into the analytical framework.This paper probes into its micro-mechanism in the influence of credit supply.After theoretical analysis and hypothesis, the empirical analysis is carried out by selecting the macro credit index and entrepreneur confidence index from the first quarter of 2003 to the fourth quarter of 2015, as well as the quarterly financial data of Chinese A-share listed companies.This paper draws the following conclusions: the changes of credit supply cycle, including the rate of credit growth, the intensity of credit growth and the change of credit ability, have a significant impact on debt financing and equity financing.When credit supply expands, companies will increase debt financing, reduce equity financing, and vice versa; in the course of the credit supply cycle affecting the external financing of the company,The increase of mortgage assets will amplify the impact of credit supply fluctuations on debt financing and equity financing, while the increase of cash flow will weaken the impact of credit supply fluctuations on debt financing, but it will not play a significant role in equity financing.Increased confidence in managers will also amplify the impact of macro-credit on corporate debt and equity financing.The conclusion of this paper plays a certain reference role in corporate financing decision and government credit regulation.The corporate financing behavior should pay attention to the influence of the credit supply cycle change, adjust the financial characteristics of the company, adjust the manager's mentality to deal with the macro credit fluctuation shock, the government should strengthen the monitoring of the abnormal credit fluctuation situation.To prevent the negative impact of credit shock on the real economy through corporate financing, the central bank should take into account the angle of view of the correlation between macro credit and real economy when applying credit policies and instruments to regulate and control the real economy.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：浙江大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.4

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