本文選題：盧布匯率　切入點(diǎn)：資本項目　出處：《歐亞經(jīng)濟(jì)》2016年01期

【摘要】：2014年以來,盧布匯率大幅貶值和劇烈波動引起國際社會廣泛關(guān)注。資本外逃、通貨膨脹、外匯儲備下降,俄羅斯經(jīng)濟(jì)面臨嚴(yán)峻考驗。深刻分析盧布貶值的原因:歐美制裁和油價下跌是導(dǎo)火索,經(jīng)濟(jì)增長乏力、結(jié)構(gòu)畸形是根本點(diǎn),開放資本項目是助推器。關(guān)聯(lián)儲退出量化寬松政策,美元加息預(yù)期不斷增強(qiáng),特別是中國大幅下調(diào)人民幣中間價后,新興市場國家和與中國有密切貿(mào)易關(guān)系的國家貨幣爭先恐后貶值,在經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化的今天,發(fā)展中國家選擇何種匯率制度、資本項目的開放程度等又成為當(dāng)前研討的熱點(diǎn)問題。中國"十三五"規(guī)劃建議指出,有序?qū)崿F(xiàn)人民幣資本項目可自由兌換,推動人民幣進(jìn)入特別提款權(quán),成為可自由兌換、可自由使用貨幣,可見,人民幣國際化進(jìn)程已經(jīng)開始提速。本刊編輯部特邀請國內(nèi)專家學(xué)者參加討論,剖析盧布貶值的深層原因,比較中俄兩國在經(jīng)濟(jì)增長、產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)、國際儲備、本幣國際化、匯率制度等方面的差異,評估盧布匯率危機(jī)對中國金融改革總體進(jìn)程的影響,探討中國如何在逐步推進(jìn)匯率形成機(jī)制市場化的同時,有效防范匯率大幅波動產(chǎn)生的風(fēng)險。
[Abstract]:Since 2014, the ruble devaluation and volatility caused widespread concern in the international community. The flight of capital, inflation, foreign exchange reserves decline, the Russian economy is facing a severe test. The profound reason analysis of devaluation of the ruble: European and American sanctions and the drop in oil prices is the fuse, weak economic growth, structural deformity is the fundamental point, opening the capital account is associated storage booster. Exit quantitative easing, the dollar rate hike is expected to continue to strengthen, especially China slashed the central parity of RMB, emerging market countries have close trade relations with Chinese and national currency devaluation fall over each other, in the economic globalization, developing countries in the choice of exchange rate regime, capital account openness has become a hot topic of current research. Chinese "13th Five-Year" planning proposal pointed out that the orderly realization of the RMB capital account can freely exchange, promote the RMB In the SDR, become freely convertible and freely usable currency, visible, has begun to accelerate the process of internationalization of the RMB. Editorial Department invited domestic experts and scholars to participate in the discussion, analyzes the deep reason for the devaluation of the ruble, comparison between China and Russia in the economic growth, industrial structure, international reserves, currency internationalization, differences of exchange rate system. The impact assessment of the ruble exchange rate crisis on the overall process of Chinese financial reform, explore how to China in gradually promote market-oriented exchange rate formation mechanism at the same time, to effectively prevent the risk of exchange rate volatility.

【作者單位】： 中國社會科學(xué)院世界經(jīng)濟(jì)與政治研究所國際投資研究室;
【分類號】：F832.1;F835.12

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本文編號：1684101