本文關(guān)鍵詞： 財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn) 風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警 功效系數(shù)法　出處：《哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

【摘要】：隨著經(jīng)濟(jì)的市場(chǎng)化與全球化,以及政府近幾年對(duì)中小企業(yè)的重點(diǎn)關(guān)注,近十年融資擔(dān)保公司在這樣的環(huán)境下迅速成長(zhǎng),這些快速成長(zhǎng)的擔(dān)保公司在當(dāng)前經(jīng)濟(jì)形勢(shì)下十分矚目。企業(yè)在面對(duì)難得的機(jī)會(huì)時(shí),也避免不了同時(shí)要承擔(dān)一定的風(fēng)險(xiǎn),擔(dān)保公司在成長(zhǎng)中的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)問(wèn)題也會(huì)逐漸顯現(xiàn)出來(lái)。財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)是最能體現(xiàn)問(wèn)題最直接的一種,如果企業(yè)不重視財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),忽視對(duì)其的管理及預(yù)警,后果將會(huì)很嚴(yán)重,會(huì)導(dǎo)致運(yùn)營(yíng)困難甚至破產(chǎn)倒閉。若要提前防范財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),就要通過(guò)建立財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)以防患于未然,有助于企業(yè)盡早做出避免財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)發(fā)生的決策。研究對(duì)象均信擔(dān)保是哈爾濱市政府參股的混合所有制擔(dān)保公司,是黑龍江省為中小企業(yè)提供金融服務(wù)的先進(jìn)單位。均信擔(dān)保受內(nèi)外部因素的影響,其財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)日益凸顯。因此,在內(nèi)憂外患的情況下,均信擔(dān)保為防范及緩解存在的風(fēng)險(xiǎn)應(yīng)盡快構(gòu)建財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警體系。在研究中擬建立適合均信擔(dān)保的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng),在進(jìn)行預(yù)警分析時(shí)采用功效系數(shù)法幫助分析財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)。具體研究思路如下:首先對(duì)國(guó)外及國(guó)內(nèi)學(xué)者對(duì)擔(dān)保公司財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的研究現(xiàn)狀進(jìn)行分析并總結(jié),介紹了擔(dān)保機(jī)構(gòu)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)及其財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的概念,闡述了采用功效系數(shù)法的必要性;其次,通過(guò)分析均信擔(dān)保公司當(dāng)前的財(cái)務(wù)狀況及財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警的管理現(xiàn)狀,提出為均信擔(dān)保財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)構(gòu)建預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的必要性;接著,構(gòu)建預(yù)警系統(tǒng)的第一步,要先選取合適的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)組成財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警指標(biāo)體系,設(shè)置各個(gè)指標(biāo)的預(yù)警區(qū)間,合成預(yù)警模型后,對(duì)均信擔(dān)保公司的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警模型進(jìn)行應(yīng)用,進(jìn)行數(shù)據(jù)分析;最后,根據(jù)均信擔(dān)保的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)得出的數(shù)據(jù)結(jié)果分析其財(cái)務(wù)方面存在的隱患,對(duì)保障財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)運(yùn)行提出了建議,并針對(duì)緩釋內(nèi)外部財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)提出了相應(yīng)對(duì)策。通過(guò)研究發(fā)現(xiàn),建立均信擔(dān)保財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)有助于公司預(yù)測(cè)其面臨的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)。利用構(gòu)建的適合均信擔(dān)保的財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng),可以幫助企業(yè)及時(shí)發(fā)現(xiàn)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn),加強(qiáng)對(duì)財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的管控,幫助均信擔(dān)保公司實(shí)現(xiàn)企業(yè)的可持續(xù)發(fā)展。另外,財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)不僅僅服務(wù)于管理者,均信擔(dān)保的其他利益相關(guān)者也可以從中受益,為決策提供幫助。
[Abstract]:With the marketization and globalization of the economy, and the government's focus on small and medium-sized enterprises in recent years, the financing guarantee companies have grown rapidly in such an environment in the past decade. These fast-growing guarantee companies are very attractive in the current economic situation. In the face of rare opportunities, enterprises cannot avoid taking certain risks at the same time. The growing risk problem of the guarantee company will also gradually emerge. Financial risk is the most direct kind of problem. If the enterprise does not attach importance to the financial risk and neglects its management and early warning, the consequences will be very serious. It can lead to operational difficulties and even bankruptcy. If you want to guard against financial risks in advance, you have to put in place a financial risk warning system to prevent trouble in the first place. It is helpful for enterprises to make decisions to avoid financial risks as soon as possible. It is an advanced unit in Heilongjiang Province to provide financial services to small and medium-sized enterprises. Due to the influence of internal and external factors, the financial risk of the guarantee is increasingly prominent. Therefore, in the case of internal and external problems, In order to prevent and mitigate the existing risks, the early warning system of financial risk should be set up as soon as possible. In the early warning analysis, the efficiency coefficient method is used to help the analysis of financial indicators. The specific research ideas are as follows: firstly, the current research situation of financial risk early warning of guarantee companies is analyzed and summarized by foreign and domestic scholars. This paper introduces the concept of guarantee institution financial risk and its financial risk warning, expounds the necessity of adopting the efficiency coefficient method, secondly, analyzes the current financial situation and the management status of the financial risk early warning of the guarantee company. The necessity of constructing an early warning system for the guarantee of financial risk is put forward. Then, the first step of constructing the early warning system is to select the appropriate financial index to form the early warning index system of financial risk, and to set up the early warning interval of each index. After synthesizing the early warning model, the financial risk early warning model of Zhongxin guarantee company is applied to analyze the data. Finally, according to the data result of the financial risk early warning system, the hidden dangers in financial aspects are analyzed. Some suggestions are put forward to ensure the operation of the financial risk early warning system, and the corresponding countermeasures are put forward to mitigate the internal and external financial risks. Establishing the financial risk early warning system can help the company forecast the financial risk it faces. Using the financial risk early warning system which is suitable for the guarantee, it can help the enterprise to discover the financial risk in time and strengthen the control of the financial risk. In addition, the early warning system of financial risk not only serves managers, but also other stakeholders can benefit from it and provide help for decision making.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：哈爾濱商業(yè)大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.39;F830.42

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 霍雨佳;;判別公司債券違約風(fēng)險(xiǎn)的財(cái)務(wù)指標(biāo)研究——基于財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警理論[J];會(huì)計(jì)之友;2016年21期

2 李霞;干勝道;;基于功效系數(shù)法的非營(yíng)利組織財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)評(píng)價(jià)[J];財(cái)經(jīng)問(wèn)題研究;2016年04期

3 馬曉方;錢夫中;成維一;裴文華;;電子政務(wù)工程項(xiàng)目績(jī)效審計(jì)中功效系數(shù)法的應(yīng)用實(shí)踐[J];審計(jì)研究;2016年01期

4 劉延?xùn)|;;融資擔(dān)保公司財(cái)務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)管理問(wèn)題研究[J];財(cái)經(jīng)界(學(xué)術(shù)版);2015年18期

5 徐力;;基于神經(jīng)網(wǎng)絡(luò)模型的上市公司財(cái)務(wù)危機(jī)預(yù)警研究[J];商場(chǎng)現(xiàn)代化;2015年19期

6 徐旭;;引入正交設(shè)計(jì)法優(yōu)化IT企業(yè)財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警系統(tǒng)研究[J];赤峰學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào)(自然科學(xué)版);2015年05期

7 Youtang Zhang;Ying Peng;ABM Munibur Rahman;;Simulation Analysis of Financial Early-Warning Systems Based on Industrial Risk Monitoring for Chinese Enterprises[J];財(cái)會(huì)月刊;2015年02期

8 鄭良芳;;對(duì)我國(guó)擔(dān)保業(yè)面臨洗牌、力爭(zhēng)規(guī)范發(fā)展的研究[J];北方金融;2014年12期

9 趙振智;孫艷玲;;功效系數(shù)法在油氣鉆井公司財(cái)務(wù)預(yù)警中的應(yīng)用[J];財(cái)會(huì)通訊;2014年32期

10 張媛;;淺談中小擔(dān)保行業(yè)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)控制分析——以重慶市農(nóng)業(yè)融資擔(dān)保公司為例[J];經(jīng)營(yíng)管理者;2014年32期

，

本文編號(hào)：1540233