本文關(guān)鍵詞：基于“三元悖論”框架的中國(guó)貨幣政策獨(dú)立性計(jì)量研究　出處：《吉林大學(xué)》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學(xué)位論文

  更多相關(guān)文章： 開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì) 三元悖論 MS-BVAR 政策組合 貨幣政策獨(dú)立性

【摘要】：當(dāng)今世界,由于全球化浪潮的加劇,幾乎各個(gè)國(guó)家都處于開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)的狀態(tài)。在開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)下,對(duì)于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控,兼顧內(nèi)外兩種均衡是必不可少的,各國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)都需面對(duì)這兩種均衡的嚴(yán)峻考驗(yàn)。對(duì)于中國(guó)來(lái)說(shuō),20世紀(jì)80年末之前我國(guó)曾是一個(gè)封閉的經(jīng)濟(jì)體。然而由于中國(guó)的改革開(kāi)放,30年來(lái)我國(guó)開(kāi)始越來(lái)越多的參與到世界經(jīng)濟(jì)中。我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放程度有了極大的提高,中國(guó)的經(jīng)濟(jì)自由化體現(xiàn)在加強(qiáng)對(duì)外貿(mào)易、提高國(guó)際資本流入、高外債和外匯儲(chǔ)備積累經(jīng)常賬戶可兌換和資本賬戶可兌換的逐漸放開(kāi)。而且近年來(lái)政府推進(jìn)的“一帶一路”戰(zhàn)略,更意味著我國(guó)正在構(gòu)建對(duì)外開(kāi)放的新格局。隨著對(duì)外開(kāi)放程度的不斷加強(qiáng),我國(guó)內(nèi)外均衡的矛盾也日益凸顯,中國(guó)也在面臨越來(lái)越大的“三元悖論”難題。本文主要研究“三元悖論”框架下,在我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)開(kāi)放的過(guò)程中匯率制度改革、資本賬戶開(kāi)放進(jìn)程以及貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性三方面的經(jīng)濟(jì)政策,進(jìn)而探究這期間政策搭配的變化,對(duì)充分享受經(jīng)濟(jì)全球化果實(shí),協(xié)調(diào)好匯率政策和貨幣政策,既能使外匯管理起到防火墻的作用,降低國(guó)際金融動(dòng)蕩的不良影響,又能對(duì)保持貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性和有效性有啟發(fā)性效果。本文選取的模型是MS-BVAR,本文的研究思路是首先從理論發(fā)展過(guò)程闡述“三元悖論”原理,借鑒前人構(gòu)建的“三元悖論”政策指標(biāo)體系量化三個(gè)政策目標(biāo),通過(guò)回歸研究我國(guó)不同階段的政策組合搭配的特點(diǎn),得出匯率制度穩(wěn)定性是我國(guó)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)的首要目標(biāo)。實(shí)證部分具體是用MS-BVAR模型檢驗(yàn),脈沖響應(yīng)函數(shù)進(jìn)行分析,得出國(guó)內(nèi)利率對(duì)國(guó)外利率、國(guó)內(nèi)外因素的反應(yīng),進(jìn)而探究我國(guó)不同階段的貨幣政策的獨(dú)立性,得出2010年以后我國(guó)貨幣政策獨(dú)立性有所提高,國(guó)內(nèi)利率的變動(dòng)主要由于對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)因素的政策選擇。最后結(jié)合“三元悖論”理論對(duì)匯率制度改革、資本賬戶開(kāi)放進(jìn)程提出相關(guān)的建議,認(rèn)為資本賬戶開(kāi)放進(jìn)程應(yīng)該謹(jǐn)慎有序進(jìn)行,匯率制度應(yīng)在保持穩(wěn)定的基礎(chǔ)上增強(qiáng)匯率彈性。
[Abstract]:In today's world, almost every country is in the state of open economy because of the intensification of globalization. In the open economy, it is necessary to take into account the internal and external balance for macroeconomic regulation and control. All countries have to face the severe test of these two kinds of equilibrium. For China, China was a closed economy before the end of the 20th century. However, due to China's reform and opening up. Over the past 30 years, China has begun to participate more and more in the world economy. China's economic openness has been greatly improved, and China's economic liberalization is reflected in strengthening foreign trade and increasing the inflow of international capital. The gradual liberalization of current account convertibility and capital account convertibility in the accumulation of foreign debt and foreign exchange reserves, and the "Belt and Road" strategy pursued by the Government in recent years. It means that China is building a new pattern of opening to the outside world. With the continuous strengthening of the degree of opening to the outside world, the equilibrium contradiction between China and the world is becoming increasingly prominent. China is also facing more and more difficult problems of "ternary paradox". This paper mainly studies the exchange rate system reform in the process of economic opening under the framework of "ternary paradox". Capital account opening process and the independence of monetary policy three aspects of economic policy, and then explore the changes in the policy mix during this period, to fully enjoy the fruits of economic globalization, to coordinate exchange rate policy and monetary policy. Foreign exchange management can not only play the role of firewall, reduce the adverse impact of international financial turmoil, but also to maintain the independence and effectiveness of monetary policy. The model chosen in this paper is MS-BVAR. The research idea of this paper is to expound the principle of "ternary paradox" from the process of theoretical development, and to quantify the three policy objectives of the "ternary paradox" policy index system constructed by predecessors. Through regression analysis of the characteristics of policy combinations in different stages in China, it is concluded that the stability of exchange rate regime is the primary goal of China's macro economy. The empirical part is tested with MS-BVAR model. The impulse response function is used to analyze the reaction of domestic interest rate to foreign interest rate and domestic and foreign factors, and then to explore the independence of monetary policy in different stages of our country. It is concluded that the independence of monetary policy has been improved since 2010, and the change of domestic interest rate is mainly due to the policy choice of domestic factors. Finally, the exchange rate system is reformed in combination with the theory of "ternary paradox". The paper suggests that the process of capital account opening should be carried out carefully and orderly, and the exchange rate regime should strengthen exchange rate elasticity on the basis of maintaining stability.
【學(xué)位授予單位】：吉林大學(xué)
【學(xué)位級(jí)別】：碩士
【學(xué)位授予年份】：2017
【分類號(hào)】：F832.6;F822.0

【參考文獻(xiàn)】

相關(guān)期刊論文 前10條

1 唐正雄;段澤坤;楊洲;;匯改對(duì)中國(guó)貨幣政策獨(dú)立性的影響[J];現(xiàn)代商業(yè);2017年06期

2 魏曼;;人民幣匯率的“三元悖論”最優(yōu)解動(dòng)態(tài)模型探討[J];北京經(jīng)濟(jì)管理職業(yè)學(xué)院學(xué)報(bào);2016年01期

3 唐琳;談?wù)_(dá);胡海鷗;;基于MS-VAR的“三元悖論”約束及對(duì)經(jīng)濟(jì)影響研究[J];國(guó)際金融研究;2015年09期

4 范小云;陳雷;祝哲;;三元悖論還是二元悖論——基于貨幣政策獨(dú)立性的最優(yōu)匯率制度選擇[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)動(dòng)態(tài);2015年01期

5 柴建;張鐘毓;付舉磊;郭菊娥;汪壽陽(yáng);;國(guó)際原油價(jià)格系統(tǒng)結(jié)構(gòu)性突變識(shí)別與分析[J];管理科學(xué);2014年02期

6 陳秀花;;三元困境下的政策組合:中國(guó)數(shù)據(jù)的實(shí)證研究[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)與管理評(píng)論;2013年06期

7 王楠;蔡曉輝;;“蒙代爾三角”對(duì)人民幣匯率制度選擇的啟示[J];學(xué)理論;2012年20期

8 楊艷林;;中國(guó)的“三元悖論”政策目標(biāo)組合選擇及其影響[J];經(jīng)濟(jì)評(píng)論;2012年04期

9 胡再勇;;三元悖論困擾下的中國(guó)資本流動(dòng)和貨幣政策[J];當(dāng)代財(cái)經(jīng);2011年07期

10 孟祥君;黃武俊;;三元悖論與中國(guó)貨幣政策的選擇[J];現(xiàn)代管理科學(xué);2011年01期

相關(guān)碩士學(xué)位論文 前1條

1 楊昀;開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)下貨幣政策和匯率政策的沖突[D];蘭州大學(xué);2009年

，

本文編號(hào)：1413049