本文關鍵詞：京津冀區(qū)域金融發(fā)展收斂性研究　出處：《天津工業(yè)大學》2017年碩士論文　論文類型：學位論文

  更多相關文章： 京津冀 金融收斂 空間相關性 空間異質性 地理加權回歸模型 空間經濟計量模型

【摘要】：京津冀區(qū)域是我國繼長三角、珠三角后的第三大都市圈,近年來,京、津、冀各自的金融業(yè)發(fā)展進步很大,但三地的金融合作進展緩慢,更多停留在倡議、研討等初級階段,與同時期提出區(qū)域金融合作的泛珠三角地區(qū)相比逐漸落后,影響京津冀區(qū)域的協(xié)調發(fā)展。因此,對區(qū)域金融差距的變動趨勢與演變規(guī)律進行研究,并據此提出合作對策具有重要的現(xiàn)實意義。目前區(qū)域金融收斂性的研究大多是基于政府間協(xié)作治理的定性研究,也有學者嘗試運用非參數(shù)估計、時間序列、泰爾指數(shù)、空間計量、基尼系數(shù)等方法進行定性研究,但主要集中于我國東中西部整體、粵港澳、長三角、珠三角等地區(qū),對京津冀地區(qū)的研究較少見。本文基于金融學、區(qū)域經濟學、地理經濟學、空間計量學研究京津冀區(qū)域金融發(fā)展收斂性,在理論分析基礎上,以京津冀區(qū)域43個區(qū)縣為樣本,基于金融相關比率、運用地理加權回歸模型、空間計量模型對京津冀金融收斂性進行定量研究,以實證分析京津冀區(qū)域金融的收斂性、檢驗不同方法的有效性,彌補同類研究的不足。然后,基于研究結論,為三地金融合作提出可行、有效的對策建議。本文研究分兩大步:第一步,理論研究。運用文獻分析法,查找、梳理相關文獻、對其進行比較研究、歸納總結,完成地理加權回歸模型、空間經濟計量模型等的理論研究。第二步,實證研究。運用OLS估計,驗證京津冀區(qū)域金融發(fā)展是否存在β收斂;建立GWR模型,進一步驗證京津冀區(qū)域金融發(fā)展的收斂性,比較OLS模型與GWR模型的適用性;建立空間計量經濟模型,進行FIR的空間相關性檢驗,比較空間滯后模型與空間誤差模型的適用性。實證研究的主要結論為:第一,研究運用的GWR估計方法相較OLS模型估計更加準確,更能有效的描述京津冀區(qū)域金融收斂問題;第二,從2000年與2015年京津冀區(qū)域金融發(fā)展水平的地理格局看,發(fā)展水平相近的區(qū)縣在空間上形成集聚,即發(fā)達區(qū)縣與發(fā)達區(qū)縣相鄰,而落后區(qū)縣與落后區(qū)縣相鄰;第三,2000年至2015年間,作為新興經濟圈的京津冀區(qū)域,其區(qū)縣的金融發(fā)展總體上呈現(xiàn)出β收斂趨勢;第四,2000年至2015年間,京津冀區(qū)域各區(qū)縣的金融發(fā)展總體上呈現(xiàn)出空間異質性與空間相關性,空間異質性與空間相關性的并存沒有改變收斂趨勢,但使得各地區(qū)的收斂速度下降,說明京津冀區(qū)域金融發(fā)展需要有效的推動力。
[Abstract]:The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is the third metropolitan area after the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta. In recent years, the financial industry of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei has made great progress, but the financial cooperation of the three places has made slow progress, and more stay in the initiative. Compared with the Pan-Pearl River Delta region which put forward the regional financial cooperation in the same period, the primary stage of the study gradually lags behind, which affects the coordinated development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. The change trend and evolution law of regional financial gap are studied. At present, most of the research on regional financial convergence is based on the qualitative research of intergovernmental collaborative governance, and some scholars try to use non-parametric estimation, time series. Tyr index, spatial measurement, Gini coefficient and other methods of qualitative research, but mainly focused on the whole of China, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta and other regions. This paper is based on finance, regional economics, geographical economics, spatial metrology to study the convergence of regional financial development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, on the basis of theoretical analysis. Taking 43 districts and counties of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region as samples, based on the ratio of financial correlation, the paper makes a quantitative study on the convergence of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei financial convergence by using geo-weighted regression model and spatial econometric model. Empirical analysis of the convergence of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional finance, testing the effectiveness of different methods, to make up for the lack of similar research. Then, based on the conclusions of the study, for the three regions of financial cooperation put forward feasible. Effective countermeasures and suggestions. This study is divided into two major steps: the first step, theoretical research. The use of literature analysis, search, combing the relevant literature, comparative research, summary, the completion of geographical weighted regression model. The second step, empirical research. Using OLS estimation, to verify whether there is 尾 convergence in the financial development of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Establish GWR model to further verify the convergence of regional financial development in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, compare the applicability of OLS model and GWR model; The spatial econometric model is established, the spatial correlation test of FIR is carried out, and the applicability of spatial lag model and spatial error model is compared. The main conclusions of the empirical research are as follows: first. The GWR estimation method used in this paper is more accurate than that of OLS model and can effectively describe the problem of financial convergence in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. Second, from 2000 and 2015, the level of regional financial development in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei geographical pattern, the level of similar development in the formation of regional counties in the spatial agglomeration, that is, developed counties and developed counties adjacent. The backward counties are adjacent to the backward districts and counties; Thirdly, from 2000 to 2015, the financial development of the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, as a new economic circle, showed a trend of 尾 convergence. From 4th to 4th to 2015, the financial development of each district of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region showed spatial heterogeneity and spatial correlation, and the coexistence of spatial heterogeneity and spatial correlation did not change the convergence trend. However, the convergence rate of various regions is reduced, indicating that the financial development of Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei needs an effective driving force.
【學位授予單位】：天津工業(yè)大學
【學位級別】：碩士
【學位授予年份】：2017
【分類號】：F832.7;F127

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