本文關(guān)鍵詞：CO_2排放控制的動(dòng)態(tài)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模擬分析，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

CO_2排放控制的動(dòng)態(tài)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模擬分析

第24卷第7期2004年7月

生　　態(tài)　　學(xué)　　報(bào)ACTAECOLOGICASINICA

Vol.24,No.7

Jul.,2004

CO2排放控制的動(dòng)態(tài)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模擬分析

王　錚1,2,鄭一萍1,蔣軼紅1,劉　揚(yáng)1,孔祥德3

(11華東師范大學(xué)地理信息教育部實(shí)驗(yàn)室,上海　200062,21中國科學(xué)院政策與管理科學(xué)研究所,

北京　100080,31美國孟菲斯大學(xué),TN38152)

摘要:以Nordhaus2Pizer模型和Leimbach模型為基礎(chǔ),在新經(jīng)濟(jì)增長理論框架下,發(fā)展了一個(gè)氣候保護(hù)分析的宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)動(dòng)態(tài)模型,模擬分析了不同削減水平下我國溫室氣體排放的對(duì)我國GDP增長和社會(huì)福利的影響,數(shù)值模擬發(fā)現(xiàn):如果不推動(dòng)減排,我國經(jīng)濟(jì)增長到2025年左右將失去優(yōu)勢(shì)。如果中國適當(dāng)參加減排,采用每年控制少排放012%的水平,到2050年相對(duì)不控制將少排放10%,對(duì)中國經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展最為有利,對(duì)全球氣候保護(hù)也是一個(gè)貢獻(xiàn)。關(guān)鍵詞:CO2減排;氣候保護(hù);宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模擬;中國

DynamicmacroeconomicmodelingandanalysisofCO2abatement

WANGZheng

1,2

11

,ZHENGYi2Ping1,JIANGYi2Hong,LIUYang,KUNGHsiang2T(11Laboratoryof

GeographicInformationScience,EastChinaNormalUniversity,MinistryofEducation,Shanghai1tesofPolicyandManagement,ChineseAcademyofScience,Beijing100080,China;31TheUnofehis,,.EcologicaSinica,

2004,24(7):1508～1513.

Abstract:BasedontheNordhaus2PizerModelandLeiinreticframeworkofneweconomicgrowth,thispaperpresentsadynamictoimpactofgreenhousegases(GHG)emissioninChinaatdifferentgrowsocialwelfare.

Theina’s2emissionreductionfocusoncostandbenefitorwhethertheeconomiclosswillberecoveredbyicfromthereductionofCO2.ThereisnoreasonwhyChinashouldabandonthosereductionmeasuresthatdolittleornoharmtotheeconomy.ThroughthesimulationanalysisoftheinfluenceofCO2emissionreductionuponthenationaleconomy,theauthorsofthepapersummarizethefollowing:

(1)Accordingtothesimulation,theChinesenationaleconomicgrowthwilldeclinearound2025withouttheimprovementoftheGHGemissionreduction。

(2)Thesimulationhaveindicatedthatthenationaleconomicgrowthratewillremainatahighlevelwhenthegrowthrate.ofCO2emissiondropsby012%peryearorby10%attheyearafter50years.participationintheemissionreductionincertaincircumstances

(3)Toimplementtheemissionreductionpolicy,thehighertheCO2emissionreductionrateis,thegreatertheChineseeconomywillbeoccurs.Thisimpactwillbemoreprofoundwiththepassageoftime.TheCO2emissioniscontrolledattheexpenseofGDPgrowthanddeclineoftheconsumptionutilities.Asadevelopingcountry,Chinadosenothaveadequatecapitalinvestmentinemissionreductionandproduction.IfthegrowthrateofCO2emissiondropsby015%annuallyinstead012%or23%ornot10%in50years,Chineseeconomywillcertainlybeaffected.Keywords:CO2abatement;climateprotection;macroeconomicsimulation;China文章編號(hào):100020933(2004)0721508206　中圖分類號(hào):Q143　文獻(xiàn)標(biāo)識(shí)碼:A

基金項(xiàng)目:國家自然科學(xué)基金資助項(xiàng)目(401990013);教育部博士點(diǎn)基礎(chǔ)資助項(xiàng)目(20010269010)收稿日期:2003206219;修訂日期:2004204213

作者簡介:王　錚(1954～),男,云南人,研究員,主要從事經(jīng)濟(jì)政策,全球變化研究。

Foundationitem:theNationalNaturalScienceFoundationofChina(No.401990013),andDoctorStationFundofMinistryofEducation(No.20010269010)

Receiveddate:2003206219;Accepteddate:2004204213

Biography:WANGZheng,Ph.D.,Professor,mainlyengagedineconomicpolicyandglobalchange.

ItisfeasibleforChinatotakeaproper

  本文關(guān)鍵詞：CO_2排放控制的動(dòng)態(tài)宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)模擬分析，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。