本文關(guān)鍵詞：實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)我國(guó)主要宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量影響的實(shí)證研究，由筆耕文化傳播整理發(fā)布。

        在中國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)日益開(kāi)放和經(jīng)濟(jì)總量日益增長(zhǎng)的國(guó)內(nèi)形勢(shì)下，同時(shí)在世界性的金融危機(jī)發(fā)生逐步頻繁和經(jīng)濟(jì)金融沖擊在國(guó)際之間越來(lái)越明顯的國(guó)際形勢(shì)下，我國(guó)的人民幣匯率水平已經(jīng)成為國(guó)內(nèi)國(guó)外理論界、實(shí)業(yè)界、政府以及我國(guó)民眾高度關(guān)注的一個(gè)主要核心經(jīng)濟(jì)變量。因此一個(gè)合理的人民幣匯率水平，不僅有助于我國(guó)與世界各國(guó)之間進(jìn)行經(jīng)濟(jì)與貿(mào)易往來(lái)，也有助于我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)保持長(zhǎng)期的穩(wěn)定、持續(xù)以及高效發(fā)展有著重要的意義。新千年以來(lái)我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)出現(xiàn)了持續(xù)高速的增長(zhǎng)，國(guó)際社會(huì)中以美國(guó)為首的國(guó)家強(qiáng)烈要求人民幣升值，人民幣升值預(yù)期不斷強(qiáng)化已經(jīng)使我國(guó)人民幣匯率升值成為今后的發(fā)展路徑，然而匯率作為我國(guó)與世界國(guó)家經(jīng)濟(jì)交流的橋梁和媒介，人民幣匯率水平的變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)的宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)將產(chǎn)生重大影響。我國(guó)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展的主要目標(biāo)是保持物價(jià)穩(wěn)定、增加社會(huì)就業(yè)、保持國(guó)際收支平衡和促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)四個(gè)基本目標(biāo)。在這四個(gè)目標(biāo)中雖然促進(jìn)經(jīng)濟(jì)增長(zhǎng)是最重要的目標(biāo)，但是要實(shí)現(xiàn)這個(gè)最重要目標(biāo)的基礎(chǔ)是依靠物價(jià)的穩(wěn)定、社會(huì)就業(yè)的增加以及保持國(guó)際收支的平衡。所以在我國(guó)對(duì)外開(kāi)放水平不斷深化的形勢(shì)下，保持我國(guó)物價(jià)水平、增加社會(huì)就業(yè)以及保持國(guó)際收支平衡變的更加復(fù)雜，因?yàn)橐獙?shí)現(xiàn)這三個(gè)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)目標(biāo)不僅要保持我國(guó)內(nèi)部經(jīng)濟(jì)的均衡，同時(shí)也要維持我國(guó)外部經(jīng)濟(jì)的均衡，內(nèi)外均衡的同時(shí)實(shí)現(xiàn)的過(guò)程中匯率這個(gè)核心經(jīng)濟(jì)變量在其中起著決定性的作用。隨著世界經(jīng)濟(jì)一體化趨勢(shì)的不斷深化，我國(guó)的匯率制度以及匯率政策也要隨著我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展和世界經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展而變化，，先前的匯率制度以及匯率政策已經(jīng)不適合我國(guó)現(xiàn)在經(jīng)濟(jì)的發(fā)展?fàn)顩r。因此，我國(guó)在2005年重新啟動(dòng)一次匯率體制改革，其實(shí)質(zhì)上是為了完善我國(guó)有管理的浮動(dòng)匯率制度上而做出重要調(diào)整。我國(guó)這次匯率體制的改革改變了我國(guó)匯率的決定機(jī)制以及增加了匯率的波動(dòng)性，由參考一籃子貨幣的匯率使我國(guó)的人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率在宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)的運(yùn)行當(dāng)中凸現(xiàn)出來(lái)，我國(guó)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)節(jié)力度逐步深化，因此研究我國(guó)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)我國(guó)宏觀(guān)調(diào)控主要經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的影響擺在了更加突出與重要的位置上。研究我國(guó)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與我國(guó)主要宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的影響關(guān)系也就體現(xiàn)在三個(gè)主要方面，即人民幣實(shí)際有匯率與物價(jià)水平的關(guān)系、人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與充分就業(yè)的關(guān)系、人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與貿(mào)易收支的關(guān)系以及人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與外國(guó)直接投資的關(guān)系來(lái)實(shí)證研究。在實(shí)證研究人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與這三者關(guān)系之前，詳細(xì)地研究了匯率本身的決定機(jī)制和運(yùn)行規(guī)律。首先，根據(jù)我國(guó)在2005年匯率改革的基礎(chǔ)上，依據(jù)現(xiàn)行的匯率制度和匯率政策對(duì)我國(guó)1994到2010年的人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的月度數(shù)據(jù)進(jìn)行度量，我國(guó)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率能夠真實(shí)的度量我國(guó)人民幣的實(shí)際價(jià)值以及外幣對(duì)比關(guān)系，采用我國(guó)與主要的貿(mào)易伙伴國(guó)之間變化的貿(mào)易量占我國(guó)總貿(mào)易的份額來(lái)衡量其外幣在我國(guó)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率形成的權(quán)重，這種以動(dòng)態(tài)變化度量的人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)我國(guó)利用匯率水平來(lái)調(diào)節(jié)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)中的主要經(jīng)濟(jì)變量具有重要的參考價(jià)值和借鑒意義。人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率作為匯率真實(shí)價(jià)值的體現(xiàn)，其本質(zhì)是度量外幣的價(jià)值而具有價(jià)格的特征，作為具有價(jià)格特性的經(jīng)濟(jì)變量就決定了人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率本身具有波動(dòng)性，并在長(zhǎng)期內(nèi)有趨于均衡的目標(biāo)路徑，因此要保持我國(guó)人民幣匯率在經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中處于合理和可控的范圍，才能保證我國(guó)經(jīng)濟(jì)高效平穩(wěn)發(fā)展。綜合考慮以均衡實(shí)際匯率理論的基礎(chǔ)上，以實(shí)際測(cè)算的我國(guó)1994-2010年的人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的月度數(shù)據(jù)為基礎(chǔ)，對(duì)我國(guó)的人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的短期均衡與失調(diào)以及人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的長(zhǎng)期均衡與失調(diào)情況進(jìn)行了詳細(xì)分析。在充分的了解人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率自身波動(dòng)性和失調(diào)性的基礎(chǔ)上，才能更切合實(shí)際的研究人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與我國(guó)主要宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的影響作用關(guān)系。在我國(guó)匯率自身的波動(dòng)以及匯率對(duì)其他經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的影響中，能更加準(zhǔn)確的把握我國(guó)人民幣匯率對(duì)各個(gè)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的傳遞影響關(guān)系，為我國(guó)制定宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)調(diào)控政策和調(diào)節(jié)手段提供基本的理論依據(jù)和實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。物價(jià)水平的穩(wěn)定是我國(guó)宏觀(guān)調(diào)控的關(guān)鍵性目標(biāo)之一，人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率作為衡量本國(guó)貨幣的外幣真實(shí)價(jià)值，其匯率自身的波動(dòng)一定會(huì)經(jīng)過(guò)傳導(dǎo)作用最終作用于經(jīng)濟(jì)運(yùn)行中價(jià)格水平這個(gè)主要的經(jīng)濟(jì)變量。衡量我國(guó)價(jià)格水平的主要價(jià)格指數(shù)是進(jìn)口價(jià)格指數(shù)和消費(fèi)者價(jià)格指數(shù)，這兩個(gè)指數(shù)的變化直接影響著我國(guó)整體價(jià)格水平的變動(dòng)。因此根據(jù)開(kāi)放經(jīng)濟(jì)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)的基本理論，建立人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率與價(jià)格水平的理論模型，從模型中選取主要的影響經(jīng)濟(jì)因素變量來(lái)分析人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)我國(guó)物價(jià)水平的影響。就業(yè)是我國(guó)利民之本，是人民群眾改善生活的基本前提和根本途徑。我國(guó)就業(yè)狀況切實(shí)關(guān)系到人民的切身利益，關(guān)系到改革發(fā)展穩(wěn)定的全局，關(guān)系到我國(guó)全面建設(shè)小康社會(huì)的宏偉目標(biāo)實(shí)現(xiàn)。我國(guó)的就業(yè)形勢(shì)目前十分嚴(yán)峻，主要表現(xiàn)在一方面我國(guó)現(xiàn)在存在大量剩余勞動(dòng)力的，隨著農(nóng)業(yè)生產(chǎn)力的提高大量閑置農(nóng)村勞動(dòng)力從農(nóng)村轉(zhuǎn)移到城市，另一方面我國(guó)目前的產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)吸納勞動(dòng)力的數(shù)量有限，勞動(dòng)力需求和供給的失衡導(dǎo)致我國(guó)的就業(yè)形勢(shì)不容樂(lè)觀(guān)。通過(guò)建立適合我國(guó)宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)發(fā)展形勢(shì)的一般可計(jì)算均衡模型，分析了我國(guó)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動(dòng)對(duì)我國(guó)產(chǎn)業(yè)結(jié)構(gòu)中的第一產(chǎn)業(yè)、第二產(chǎn)業(yè)以及第三產(chǎn)業(yè)勞動(dòng)就業(yè)的影響，進(jìn)而為我國(guó)通過(guò)人民幣匯率變動(dòng)實(shí)現(xiàn)增加就業(yè)緩解嚴(yán)峻就業(yè)形勢(shì)，最終實(shí)現(xiàn)我國(guó)宏觀(guān)調(diào)控目標(biāo)提供政策性的模擬分析。國(guó)際收支是國(guó)與國(guó)因經(jīng)濟(jì)貿(mào)易交易而引起的貨幣收付或以貨幣表示的財(cái)產(chǎn)轉(zhuǎn)移。影響開(kāi)放國(guó)家國(guó)際收支的兩個(gè)主要因素是進(jìn)出口貿(mào)易狀況和資本流動(dòng)狀況，而匯率作為國(guó)際收支賬戶(hù)活動(dòng)的主要交換媒介，人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的變動(dòng)將對(duì)我國(guó)的貿(mào)易收支和資本流動(dòng)有著重要影響作用。在總結(jié)和歸納國(guó)際收支相關(guān)理論后，結(jié)合我國(guó)貿(mào)易收支和外國(guó)直接投資的主要特征和表現(xiàn)，對(duì)我國(guó)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)我國(guó)貿(mào)易收支和外國(guó)直接投資進(jìn)行實(shí)證分析，在分析人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)貿(mào)易收支的影響主要應(yīng)用向量誤差修正模型（VEC），而在分析我國(guó)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)外國(guó)直接投資的影響，主要采用國(guó)際面板數(shù)據(jù)對(duì)我國(guó)人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)外國(guó)直接投資的影響進(jìn)行實(shí)證檢驗(yàn)。

    With the situation of economy opening up and the amount of it increasing up gradually,andwith the complexion of wordwide economic crisis occursing on step by step and the financeimpact getting more and more obvious among countries ,the level of the RMB exchange rate inour country has become a main core economic variation that the area of theorities fromcountries ,industries, government and inland public concern about severely.Therefore,Not only bea sound standard of RMB exchange rate helpful to economy and business transaction between ourcountry and other countries,but also generate important significances that keep our economydeveloping chronically,stably,constantly and effectively.Especally since the new century Chineseeconomy has always been rising rapidly, meanwhile the stressure that the countries headed byAmerica request for appreciating RMB is more and more intense ,China S exchange rate has beena development pathway later on.But as a link of conversation between China and the world,thealteration level of exchange rate will significantly influences on domestic macro-economiy.Themain aim to develop Chinese macro-economy is maintainning the price,adding socialcareer,keeping the balance of international payments .Althouh among these goals promoting theeconomy increasing is the most important,only can complete it depends on the rest of threegoals.So during the time of deepening opening up continually,holding the standard ofprice,Increasing the employment and maintaining the balance of international payments wouldbecome more complex.For finishing the three macro-economic goals supports the equal ofChinese economy and outside one.In the progression of accomplishing internal and externalbalance,the exchange rate refered to the core economic variable quantity is essential for them.With the trends of globalization deepening,China’S policy about the exchange rate need tochange as the variation of the Chinese and world’economy developing.Because the formermonetary policy and institution has never been suitable for the developing case of Chineceeconomy today.So we resetted a great reform of the regime on exchange rate in order to make ourcountry’s fluctuate economic syetem better. This reform alter the determitive institution in ourcountry and improve the float,which makes Chinese exchange rate deepen gradually ourregulation of major macro-economy,so it is the research on exchange rate that the influence onmain economic indexes in Chinese macro-control is putted on the important and outstandingposition.We study the relation between the exchange rate and the influence on major macro-economyindex on the basis of the three steady connections between exchange and price, full employmentand balance of income and outcome.Studying the feature and regular pattern of exchange rate is indeed in detail before discussing their connections.Firstly,in accordance of the reform aboutexchange rate since 2005,the monthly data of Real Effective Exchange Rate(REER) from 1994 to2010 is measured according to institution and policy of rate of exchange nowadays,in China,theREER is able to weigh the over real value and its contrast.We should adopt the total trade sum thatincludes the trade amount of China and the main trade partner is adopted to measure its foreigncurrency that forms weght in our exchange of RMB,and the RMB exchange rate which ismeasured dymatically would reflect the real value of RMB,.Therefore,it owns importantreferences and mirror as regard to the major economic items of macro-economy which is regulatedby the level of exchange rate.The authentic exchange rate value shows the real effective value which owns the feature ofprice because of valuing foreign currency ,and as an economic variation which owns character ofprice,the REER decides the wave of itself and has a way to be incline to balance.So only keepingChinese exchange rate in a reasonable and managed range during the business moving can weensure a steady progress of economy.There is an explicit analysis and comprehensiveconsideration on the REER of RMB whose short term or long term equalization and imbalancein the light of theory of balancing real exchange rate along with monthly data of REER that iscalculated from 1994 to 2010.We are able to discuss on the influence on the relation betweenresearching on the REER and major macro economic index.In China, during the time of the floatof exchange rate and other economic variation that is impacted,it is critical to grasp exchangeinteracting with the transportion of other economic variation more exactly for providing the policyof macro economic control wth elementary theoretical bases of regulation and practicalexperience.According to the goal which is achieved through daring to regulate the motion ofmacco economy by our government.in the following sections,We may study the exchange rateand its impact on them to finish the main aims of macro control to some the standard ofprice,increasing careers and the balance of international income.One of the key aims is stabilizing the price level, as a foreign currency value which weighsdomestic money ,the wave of REER must impact on the main economic variation of the pricelevel finally through the effect of economy conduction.The price indexes of input and output aremain factors which measure the price level of China.The variation of these two indexes willdirectly influence on the transformation of the whole country’s price level,so it is necessary toestablish theoretical model of price standard and REER as well as select the correspondentinfluential variation of economy factor for analyzing the influence on our price level,which issupported by elementary theory of opening economy about macro-economy.Employment is a basement of benefitting the people,and is a basic condition and radicalpathway which improve the living standard of public.There are a series of aspects such as theprofits of people ,the situation of stable reform,as well as the great achievement of totallyconstructing well-to-do society being correlating with the situation of employment.Nowadays,the employment situation of our country is rather stern,on the one hand,there are plenties of remaininglabor force in our country,and these people transferred from villages to cities.As the improvrmentof agriculture productivity,on the other hand,the number of recent structure of industry absorbingthe labor force is limited,therefore,the imbalance between labor force supply and demond wouldlead our situation of employment to pessimism.We should set a general calculated balanced modelwhich is suitable for Chinese macro-developing cases and ought to analyse the variation of REERinfluencing on the first ,the second and the third industry,which offers references about the policiesto the macro-control aims that are finished by the variation of exchange rate adding working torelieve severe situation of getting jobs.The income and expenditure of internation is a property metastasis which is expressed bymonetary or currency receipts and payment resulted from dealings among countries.Two mainfactors which affected the receipts and payment of internation from opening countries are thestates about input-output trade and inflow and outflow capital,while the exchange rate is regardedas a main media of an account of international income and payment.The variation of REER willgenerate an important effect on the balance of trade and capital flow in China.After summarizingthe relevant theory of international balance of payment,in China,the real effective exchange rate ismade a positive analysis in terms of the Balance of Trade and Foreign DirectInvestment,separately,the effect on the balance of trade from the REER is analysed mainly throughthe application of Vector Error Correction Modle(VECM),while analyzing the impact on ForeignDirect Investment from REER is screened by the international panel data.

實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)我國(guó)主要宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量影響的實(shí)證研究

中文摘要4-6Abstract6-8前言11-13第1章 匯率與主要宏觀(guān)經(jīng)濟(jì)變量的研究綜述13-31    1.1 匯率與均衡匯率的研究綜述13-18    1.2 匯率與價(jià)格水平的研究綜述18-23    1.3 匯率對(duì)就業(yè)影響的 CGE 模型研究綜述23-25    1.4 匯率與國(guó)際收支的研究綜述25-27    1.5 匯率與外國(guó)直接投資的研究綜述27-31第2章 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的度量及其波動(dòng)性31-45    2.1 匯率重要概念進(jìn)行界定與說(shuō)明31-32    2.2 實(shí)際有效匯率的構(gòu)建方法32-36    2.3 匯率波動(dòng)性的概念界定及描述性分析36-40    2.4 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的波動(dòng)性解析40-43    2.5 本章小結(jié)43-45第3章 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的均衡與失調(diào)45-61    3.1 均衡匯率理論45-46    3.2 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的均衡46-55    3.3 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率的失調(diào)55-59    3.4 本章小結(jié)59-61第4章 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)價(jià)格水平的影響61-83    4.1 實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)價(jià)格水平傳遞的理論模型61-68    4.2 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)我國(guó)進(jìn)口價(jià)格水平的影響68-75    4.3 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)國(guó)內(nèi)消費(fèi)價(jià)格的影響75-81    4.4 本章小結(jié)81-83第5章 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)就業(yè)的影響83-111    5.1 就業(yè)的社會(huì)核算矩陣的構(gòu)造83-98    5.2 可計(jì)算一般均衡模型98-104    5.3 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)我國(guó)就業(yè)的影響104-109    5.4 本章小結(jié)109-111第6章 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)貿(mào)易收支的影響111-133    6.1 匯率與國(guó)際收支的理論描述111-116    6.2 我國(guó)國(guó)際收支的主要特征和表現(xiàn)116-123    6.3 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)我國(guó)貿(mào)易收支的影響123-132    6.4 本章小結(jié)132-133第7章 人民幣實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)外國(guó)直接投資的影響133-153    7.1 匯率與國(guó)外投資的理論與實(shí)證描述133-135    7.2 外國(guó)直接投資在我國(guó)國(guó)民經(jīng)濟(jì)中的地位和作用135-141    7.3 實(shí)際有效匯率對(duì)我國(guó)外國(guó)直接投資的影響分析141-151    7.4 本章小結(jié)151-153結(jié)論153-155參考文獻(xiàn)155-165作者簡(jiǎn)介及在學(xué)期間所取得的科研成果165-167后記和致謝167

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